Tag Archives: Post Carbon Institute

Peak Oil

Nate Hagens to Speak About the ‘Big Picture’ on Jan. 12

Young people, or anyone concerned about the world we live in and about leaving it better than we found it, should attend Nate Hagens’ talk next month.

Nate Hagens is a well-known speaker on “big picture” issues facing human society.

He’ll be speaking at UH Hilo on Tuesday, January 12th, in UCB 100 at 6:30 p.m.

Nate, who is on the board of the Post Carbon Institute, sent me the following. Have a look to learn a little bit about him and get a sense of where he’s coming from, and what he talks about.

Fifteen years ago I walked away from Wall Street. It was a fun place—I learned a lot, made a good income, and met fascinating people. But as I began to learn that the financial narrative about humans and our planet was a hollow facsimile of the real story, and therefore counterproductive to our real challenges, I quit.

Today I still meet fascinating people—in ecology, neuroscience, paleobiology, atmospheric science, biophysical economics circles, etc. And the collective story they’re telling suggests that we’re in a hell of a pickle. We dominate the planet’s sources and sinks, supported by a virtual army of powerful fossil slaves, who perform about 90% of the labor in our human system. With their help, we have grown our economies (and our impacts) exponentially over the past two centuries.

The largesse that spins off from this subsidy of ancient sunlight provides our wages, profits, jobs, cheap stuff, as well as the ability to do science, strategize about our future, and fund social and environmental initiatives. But, these fossil slaves are tiring (and they poop and breathe, which is of great concern regarding our oceans and biosphere).

The real stock market is our air, our soils, our forests, our oceans, and the biodiversity we share the planet with. This stock market has been in crash mode since I’ve been alive.

Two stock markets—one focused on the agenda of the gene, and one potentially focused by sapient minds. Which one should we focus on?

I currently teach a class called Reality 101 at the University of Minnesota. My students—bright, curious, pro-social 19 year-olds­—are coming to understand this broad ecological backdrop. They are aware of—and incredibly concerned about—the loss of our natural world, the end of the kind of economic growth and opportunities that existed a generation ago, and the social angst percolating in our society. They want to make a difference, and somehow avoid the standard conspicuous consumption trajectory, which is to get a salary, follow the rules, pay the bills, and buy more gadgets. So, I struggle with questions like these daily:

  • How can we learn to navigate the complexities of a contracting economy, while still including the viability of a natural world as a core goal?
  • How can we steer societal values so that young people can hold true to their ideals that manifest the more benign aspects of our species?
  • How can social and environmental groups “fighting the good fight” for a livable biosphere and social cohesion stay afloat in what will be increasingly tough economic times?

I have been on the Board of Post Carbon Institute since 2009. PCI uses a small budget and a big heart to achieve significant impact. Of the environmental NGOs, it is the only one that I know that focuses on the challenges our societies will face as our fossil slaves leave us before we might succeed in firing them.

The staff, Fellows and Board Members who comprise the Post Carbon Institute do not offer prescriptions, Instead, we use a systems approach to provide information, analysis, examples, inspiration, and community that remains ahead of the curve of those promoting singular “answers” to societal challenges.

The monetization of the human experience—and its impacts—has metastasized through modern global culture. Anything of value can and is parsed into dollars. And this sets up an irony: there is no financial profit in working on changing the system to something more sustainable, less finance-centric, and more tethered to biophysical realities. The people doing this work depend on those who have some surplus, and who care enough to support these efforts. A pro-social virtuous cycle.

When I was 19 (and naive), I thought “finance” was the key to the future. But I now see that it is ecology. What do today’s 19 year-olds see as their future paths? How will tomorrow’s 19 year-olds define “success” in life? The answer to that begins with education, synthesis, and new stories that we start to tell, today. PCI is poised to expand its reach, with the specific goal of engaging young people to prepare them for the world they will inherit.

If the 20th century was the Century of Self, then perhaps the 21st can be the Century of a Livable Future, which will require sacrifices and creativity from broad swaths of human populations. Please consider personally engaging in this battle of values and vision in the years (and decades) ahead. Choose an issue you feel passionate about, take a deep breath, and get involved.

Put Nate’s talk on your calendar. January 12th. 6:30 p.m.

Geothermal, Peak Oil

Government Says ‘Plenty, Cheap, No Worry!’ But Others Say, ‘Worry’

Richard Ha writes:

This is a really good graph that shows three projections for future gas production through the year 2040. Click on this postcarbon.org graph and you'll see the black line shows a University of Texas study, the red line shows David Hughes's projection and the blue line represents the government's EIA projection. 

The government projection shows nothing to worry about. Plenty, plenty, plenty!

But the others show an entirely different story. They suggest we better start making some other plans.

Conventional oil, which is our regular oil supply like from Russia and OPEC, hit its max in 2005. It's shale gas and oil that has increased our oil and natural gas supply in the last few years. But it appears that shale gas and oil will start to decline soon and if so, we need to start down the road to adapting to what will soon be again-rising oil prices. 

On the Big Island, geothermal can replace oil and LNG. Not many other places are as fortunate. We just need to be smart and figure out what works.

Geothermal works. We don't have to get there tomorrow, and we don't have to get there in a straight line. We just have to get there. 

We have a way to do this on the Big Island: Geothermal. It's a gift. 

This podcast with David Hughes, author of the recent report Drilling Deeper for the Post Carbon Institute, talks more about this. 

It's all common sense. It’s about data and science—water does not flow uphill, no matter how much we wish it would. Nothing about this is beyond the average person. I find that rubbah slippah folks understand all this in a few minutes.

Geothermal, Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources

Shale Gas & Shale Oil, Only a Short-Term Bubble

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Richard Ha writes:

From ShaleBubble.org:

THEY TELL US

WE’RE ON THE CUSP OF AN OIL & GAS REVOLUTION.

But what if it’s all just a short-term bubble?


The Reality is that the so-called shale revolution is nothing more than a bubble, driven by record levels of drilling, speculative lease & flip practices on the part of shale energy companies, fee-driven promotion by the same investment banks that fomented the housing bubble, and by unsustainably low natural gas prices. Geological and economic constraints – not to mention the very serious environmental and health impacts of drilling – mean that shale gas and shale oil (tight oil) are far from the solution to our energy woes.

This makes total sense to me.

In 2009, at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) conference in Denver, I attended a panel discussion on natural gas production.

Arthur Berman, a petroleum geologist and energy consultant, talked about analyzing 4,000 Barnett Shale wells. He found that an average well produces 70 percent of its production in the first year. This made sense to me: It’s a gas.

An industry person on the panel said that life span of the wells is calculated to be 22 years. Obviously, they must produce at a very low rate later in their life span, compared to their first year’s production. One has to keep drilling more just to stay in one place.

In this landmark report “Drill Baby Drill,” J. David Hughes of Post Carbon Institute takes a far-ranging and painstakingly researched look at the prospects for various unconventional fuels to provide energy abundance for the United States in the 21st Century. While the report examines a range of energy sources, the centerpiece of “Drill, Baby, Drill” is a critical analysis of shale gas and shale oil (tight oil) and the potential of a shale “revolution.”

From the Executive Summary of “Drill Baby Drill:“

World energy consumption has more than doubled since the energy crises of the 1970s, and more than 80 percent of this is provided by fossil fuels. In the next 24 years world consumption is forecast to grow by a further 44 percent—and U.S. consumption a further seven percent—with fossil fuels continuing to provide around 80 percent of total demand.

Where will these fossil fuels come from? There has been great enthusiasm recently for a renaissance in the production of oil and natural gas, particularly for the United States. Starting with calls in the 2008 presidential election to “drill, baby, drill!,” politicians and industry leaders alike now hail “one hundred years of gas” and anticipate the U.S. regaining its crown as the world’s foremost oil producer. Much of this optimism is based on the application of technologies like hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling to previously inaccessible shale reservoirs, and the development of unconventional sources such as tar sands and oil shale. Globally there is great hope for vast increases in oil production from underdeveloped regions such as Iraq. 

However, the real challenges—and costs—of 21st century fossil fuel production suggest that such vastly increased supplies will not be easily achieved or even possible. The geological and environmental realities of trying to fulfill these exuberant proclamations deserve a closer look.

Click here to see a report about the role of Wall Street investment banks in the recent shale gas drilling frenzy and related drop in natural gas prices, written by Deborah Rogers from Energy Policy Forum.

The petroleum age is not even 150 years old, and already we are worrying about supply. In contrast, consider that the Big Island will be over the “hot spot” for 500,000 to a million years.

We don’t need $200/barrel Aina Koa Pono biofuel, which will make us less competitive. What makes sense is the $57/barrel oil equivalent that is geothermal.

We in Hawai‘i need to prepare for worse case scenarios.

So how much time do we have and how do we take care of all of us?

We need to be practical: What works, works.

This is about competition. Low cost trumps high cost.

It’s about net energy. The energy left over from what’s expended in getting the energy is what we have left to use.

And it’s about common sense. When kids picking guava or waiawi in a pasture hear hoof beats, they run first. Then they look to see if it’s a horse or the wild bull.

Peak Oil

Dinner with Peak Oil Educator Richard Heinberg

Cully and Meleana Judd invited me to dinner at the Outrigger Canoe Club with Richard Heinberg and some of their friends. What a treat.

IMG_0053That’s Richard with his back to the camera. Then, to his left: Cully, Tom Loudat and his wife Nadia, Carol Silva, Ron Richmond and Meleana. I’m missing from the seat in the middle.

I sat on one side of Richard. We all talked energy all evening. Nice people, and great conversation. I loved it.

IMG_0051left to right: Me, Richard Heinberg, Meleana Judd

DSC_0146left to right: Tom Loudat, me, Richard Heinberg, Cully Judd and Ron Richmond.

Earlier, I called Cully and asked him: “Eh Cully, What you going wear?” (i.e. What was the dress code?).

He said, “I’m going with shorts or I’m not going.” I said, “Okay. I going with shorts, too.”

I had just seen Richard at the ASPO conference in Washington, D.C. last week. But we did not get a chance to really talk story then. This was a great opportunity. Mahalo, Cully and Meleana.

From Richard Heinberg’s website:

Screen shot 2011-11-11 at 6.39.14 PM

Richard Heinberg is the author of 10 books including:

  • The End of Growth: Adapting to our New Economic Reality (June 2011)
  • Blackout: Coal, Climate, and the Last Energy Crisis (2009)
  • Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines (2007)
  • The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse (2006)
  • Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (2004)
  • The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003)

He is Senior Fellow-in-Residence of the Post Carbon Institute and is widely regarded as one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil educators. He has authored scores of essays and articles that have appeared in such journals as Nature, The Ecologist, The American Prospect, Public Policy Research, Quarterly Review, Z Magazine, Resurgence, The Futurist, European Business Review, Earth Island Journal, Yes!, Pacific Ecologist, and The Sun; and on web sites such as Alternet.org, EnergyBulletin.net, TheOilDrum.com, ProjectCensored.com, and Counterpunch.com.

He has appeared in many film and television documentaries, including Leonardo DiCaprio’s 11th Hour, and is a recipient of the M. King Hubbert Award for Excellence in Energy Education.

This short video narrated by Richard Heinberg explains why we have come to “the end of growth.”

More information about Richard can be found on his website.

Peak Oil

2011 Peak Oil Conference, Part 3: Energy Return on Energy Invested

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I was Hawai‘i County’s representative to the 2011 Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference in Washington, D.C., which just concluded.

This was the fourth time I’ve attended the conference. After my first ASPO conference it hit me: I learned too much! It became my kuleana.

This is the third in a series of posts about information gleaned from this year’s conference. Note that everything I’m writing about is based on numbers, not my opinions. I am relaying information from very credible people who have gone through the peer review process and been vetted.

Energy Return on Energy invested (EROI or EROEI)

In a sentence, the definition of EROI: “The energy it takes to get energy – minus the energy it takes to get food – equals our lifestyle.”

Charles Hall, David Murphy and others, who have done peer-reviewed analyses of the concept of EROI, argue that organisms, organizations and civilizations must generate surplus energy in order to survive. A mother cheetah must be able to chase down rabbits and gazelles, miss a few, feed the kids and still have enough energy to run down more or else the species goes extinct. Ancient civilizations followed this principle.

This is Charley Hall, the father of EROI, on the left.

IMG_0016

Awhile ago, I read through his paper “What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?, which he authored with Stephen Balogh and David Murphy, and I immediately got it. At the conference, I asked Charley to autograph a copy of it for me.

I was sitting right next to him and asked him how come there are no analyses for “hot” geothermal, like we have in Hawai‘i and Iceland. His answer was that we are a tiny part of the world solution. I guess so – we are only 2 million out of 7 billion people that are so lucky.

If it takes more energy to get the energy (as in some biofuels), then someone needs to explain to regular folks why we would do that. Otherwise, we start thinking about Easter Island.

Can we pay back our debts if the economy cannot grow? It is clear that the economy cannot stand a triple digit oil price. We have been using twice as much oil as we have been finding for more than 20 years now.

AC1058

And it is becoming more difficult and, consequently, more expensive to develop new sources. It seems reasonable to assume that oil prices will rise and fall with demand. But the prices will tend to keep rising as the population’s demand rises and as old fields naturally decline.

And doesn’t modern economic theory assume continuous growth? But growth stops when oil reaches triple digits per barrel. Are we facing the end of growth? It is prudent that we plan for the worse and hope for the best.

Both Gail Tverberg and Jeff Rubin write blogs about this (both their blogs are always available by clicking in the side bar at right).

Here I am with Gail. I cannot refute her arguments, so I spend all my time figuring out workarounds. That’s why I push geothermal so hard. It’s the bridge that will enables other renewables to cross.

IMG_0020

Hawaii Pacific University (HPU) in Honolulu is sponsoring a talk about the end of growth by Richard Heinberg on November  9th. Heinberg is a Senior Fellow-in-Residence at Post Carbon Institute, a nonprofit organization dedicated to “building more resilient, sustainable, and equitable communities.”

This is Richard Heinberg on the left.

IMG_0019

This series of posts about my trip to the 2011 Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) continues. Read Part 4 here.

Go back to Part 1 and Part 2.

Biofuel, Geothermal, Peak Oil

Stocking Up On Toilet Paper

What will happen when we hit Peak Oil? Probably the same thing that happens every time we hear about a dock strike: People will run out and buy three shopping carts of toilet paper.

I think that when we realize world oil supplies are starting to decline, never to recover, prices will become very volatile. Lloyds of London recently published a white paper that warns of $200 oil by 2013.

Inexpensive geothermal for electricity is something that makes sense.

Biofuels-to-electricity is not a good idea. One would have to pay a steep premium to get farmers to grow biofuels.

Next time you hear or see folks talking up biofuels, count the number of farmers in the room. Farmers know the numbers do not come out. This is not rocket science; just plain old common sense.

From the Post Carbon Institute:

It’s Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve

Posted Nov 24, 2010 by Chris Martenson

Part I: It’s the End of the Oil As We Know It…

Once a year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook (WEO), and it’s our tradition here at ChrisMartenson.com to review it.  A lot of articles have already been written on the WEO 2010 report, and I don’t wish to tread an already well-worn path, but the subject is just too important to leave relegate to a single week of attention. 

Because some people will only read the first two paragraphs, let me get a couple of conclusions out right up front.  You need to pay close attention to Peak Oil, and you need to begin adjusting, because it has already happened.  The first conclusion is mine; the second belongs to the IEA. 

Okay, it’s not quite as simple as that; there are a few complexities involved that require us to dig a bit deeper and to be sure our terms and definitions are clear so that we are talking about the same things. Read the rest