Some thoughts as the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference is about to start here in Washington, D.C.:
The bad news
We are using twice as much oil as we have been finding for the last 20-30 years. And we are getting closer to the intersection of increasing world population and a finite resource.
Shale gas – 70 percent of the gas that comes from a gas well is used up in the first year. We do not have close to a 100 year supply. Lucky if we have 25 years’ worth.
Biofuels – The EPA had to revise its 2011 estimate of U.S. cellulosic biofuels downward from 250 million gallons to 6.5 million gallons. Also, the net energy derived from producing biofuels is very low.
The U.S. mainland has a liquid fuel transportation problem. Hawai‘i has both a liquid fuel transportation problem as well as a liquid fuel electricity problem.
The good news
Compared to the rest of the world’s population of 7 billion people, the 2 million people of Iceland and Hawai‘i have the best geothermal resource in the world.
The Big Island will be over the “hot spot” for 500,000 to 1 million years.
Geothermal costs around 10 cents per kWh to produce electricity. Oil, at $100 per barrel, costs more than 20 cents/kWh. Geothermal energy cost will stay stable for 500,000 years while oil will rise to unaffordable levels soon.
Like our ancient people a long time ago, we must make decisions for future generations. Can we continue to wait and hope for the best, or do we force change?
Let’s go!