New Info About Hawaii’s Water

This morning I talked to Dr. Don Thomas for half an hour. He’s finding really fascinating stuff that turns upside-down the whole theory of how fresh water is stored under the island.

It looks like there is a 15-foot thick, impermeable, layer on the Hilo side that traps freshwater 9,000+ feet down.

This is what we thought the Hawaiian Islands water cycle looks like.

Water

Clouds come in and pile up against the slopes, and then rain falls, percolating down and out toward the ocean. So when we drill, we expect to find a freshwater lens, with salt water beyond (lower than) the freshwater lens. Right? One would expect to find fresh water at roughly around sea level. Or maybe a little deeper.

What if you drilled past the freshwater lens into the salt water and found fresh water at a much deeper level – like 9000 feet? And what if it were cold, and more than 1000 years old and under 160 pounds per square foot pressure? That was what Don Thomas recently found at a well he was drilling by the Hilo airport.

What does this mean? Could it be the same on the Kona side? He thinks so.

Using magnetotelluric surveys — they detect radio waves in the earth, and, depending on the conductivity of the rocks, can give a hint at what is there (i.e., hot/cold rocks, salt/fresh water, or combinations thereof), and then he gets in there with his drill — he has found what looks like perched fresh water on the dry side of the island. And it was higher than expected. Hmmm!

Washington Place Reception for People Behind the Thirty Meter Telescope

On Friday I attended a reception at Washington Place, the governor’s mansion, given for the people behind the Thirty Meter Telescope.

Washington Place

It was great to get together. So many people worked so hard to accomplish what we did.

I remember Roberta Chu and I standing in the parking lot in the very early days asking each other: “Do you think we can do this?” We never looked back.

Roberta Chu, Barry Mizuno and Don StraneyRoberta Chu, Barry Mizuno and Don Straney

Henry Yang, President of the TMT Corporation, is a very special person. He flew in and out of the Big Island more than 15 times, and spent all of his time talking to the regular folks. He never once spoke to the press.

Henry YangHenry Yang

He learned firsthand that the lowest common denominator that folks on all sides of the issue could agree upon was keiki education, and so the TMT committed $1 million annually for keiki education on the Big Island.

All throughout the tough negotiations, this was completely off the table. No one could touch it, nor even think about touching it.

Jean Lou Chameau, Richard Ha, Henry YangJean-Lou Chameau, me, Henry Yang

Henry did not come into town telling everyone he was there to save them. He told them what was going to happen. But mostly he listened. And, slowly but surely, people started to trust.

Dilling and Henry YangDilling and Henry Yang, me

Roberta Chu, Dilling and Henry YangRoberta Chu greeting Dilling and Henry Yang

Henry Yang

Henry and I were like brothers during this project. He was the kind of guy I could do business with on a handshake. He and Jean-Lou Chameau, President of Cal Tech, are people persons. The right people at the right time.

Jean-Lou Chameau, president of Cal TechJean-Lou Chameau

I missed seeing my friend Dawn Chang. She and I worked very closely in the tough, early days.

Daniel InouyeSenator Daniel Inouye arriving

Senator Daniel InouyeSenator Inouye speaking

P1000223Senator Inouye, me, Henry Yang

Irene Inouye, MRC GreenwoodIrene Inouye and MRC Greenwood

Ka‘iu Kimura was very brave.

Mazie HironoRep. Mazie Hirono with TMT Board Members

Thirty Meter Telescope

Richard Ha, Rockne Freitas, Herring Kalua, Don StraneyMe, Rockne Freitas, Herring Kalua and Don Straney

And I learned an important lesson from Kumu Lehua Veincent. When I suggested to him that we try to get five “full-ride” scholarships to the best schools in the nation for Keaukaha kids, he asked me: “And what about the rest of them?” Of course he was right.

Thirty Meter Telescope, Washington Place

Barry Taniguchi, Carl Carlson, Jim Omura, Virginia HinshawBarry Taniguchi, Carl Carlson, Jim Omura, Virginia Hinshaw

Mike Bolte and Sandra DawsonMike Bolte and Sandra Dawson

Patrick Kahawaiola‘a told me something profound. He said that it’s all about the process. Then it dawned on me: “You have to aloha everyone, no matter on what side of the issue.”  

Aloha to the Kanaka Council and other folks like Kealoha, and Ku Ching, who do not agree. I’m pretty sure they know that we were trying to be pono.

Jim Omura, Virginia Hinshaw, Mark YudovJim Omura, Virginia Hinshaw, Mark Yudov

MRC Greenwood and Governor Neil AbercrombieMRC Greenwood and Governor Neil Abercrombie

Richard Ha, Greg Chun and Dennis HirotaMe, Greg Chun and Dennis Hirota

Jennifer Sabas, Roberta Chu and Mike BolteJennifer Sabas, Roberta Chu and Mike Bolte

Thirty Meter Telescope

Thirty Meter TelescopeDavid Lonberg, Carl Carlson, Doug Ing

Here are some startling facts about the Thirty Meter Telescope:

  • 9 times more light collecting area than a Keck Telescope
  • 12.5 times sharper images than we can get with the Hubble Space Telescope (This is amazing!)
  • Will be able to see through the universe back to the time when the very first stars and galaxies formed
  • Will be able to image planets orbiting other stars and to look for the signposts of life
  • Will be able to discover and study supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies throughout the Universe
  • Will be able to determine the nature of dark energy and dark matter – These are key to determining the ultimate fate of the Universe.

Dinner with Peak Oil Educator Richard Heinberg

Cully and Meleana Judd invited me to dinner at the Outrigger Canoe Club with Richard Heinberg and some of their friends. What a treat.

IMG_0053That’s Richard with his back to the camera. Then, to his left: Cully, Tom Loudat and his wife Nadia, Carol Silva, Ron Richmond and Meleana. I’m missing from the seat in the middle.

I sat on one side of Richard. We all talked energy all evening. Nice people, and great conversation. I loved it.

IMG_0051left to right: Me, Richard Heinberg, Meleana Judd

DSC_0146left to right: Tom Loudat, me, Richard Heinberg, Cully Judd and Ron Richmond.

Earlier, I called Cully and asked him: “Eh Cully, What you going wear?” (i.e. What was the dress code?).

He said, “I’m going with shorts or I’m not going.” I said, “Okay. I going with shorts, too.”

I had just seen Richard at the ASPO conference in Washington, D.C. last week. But we did not get a chance to really talk story then. This was a great opportunity. Mahalo, Cully and Meleana.

From Richard Heinberg’s website:

Screen shot 2011-11-11 at 6.39.14 PM

Richard Heinberg is the author of 10 books including:

  • The End of Growth: Adapting to our New Economic Reality (June 2011)
  • Blackout: Coal, Climate, and the Last Energy Crisis (2009)
  • Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines (2007)
  • The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse (2006)
  • Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (2004)
  • The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003)

He is Senior Fellow-in-Residence of the Post Carbon Institute and is widely regarded as one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil educators. He has authored scores of essays and articles that have appeared in such journals as Nature, The Ecologist, The American Prospect, Public Policy Research, Quarterly Review, Z Magazine, Resurgence, The Futurist, European Business Review, Earth Island Journal, Yes!, Pacific Ecologist, and The Sun; and on web sites such as Alternet.org, EnergyBulletin.net, TheOilDrum.com, ProjectCensored.com, and Counterpunch.com.

He has appeared in many film and television documentaries, including Leonardo DiCaprio’s 11th Hour, and is a recipient of the M. King Hubbert Award for Excellence in Energy Education.

This short video narrated by Richard Heinberg explains why we have come to “the end of growth.”

More information about Richard can be found on his website.

2011 Peak Oil Conference, Part 4: The Answer is Geothermal

“Find three solutions to every problem,  and then find one more just in case.”

PhotofromASPO2011Friday

The time for endless debate is over. We need action.

We know that it is becoming increasingly difficult to increase world oil supplies. There is no point in discussing, to a fine point, when Peak Oil will happen. It is more important to know the consequence of not being able to keep up with demand.

The consequence is rising prices. We have seen that when oil prices exceed $100 per barrel, the world economy starts grinding to a halt. But oil is already at $90+ per barrel, and the world is in a slow growth period. Could the “new normal” be slow or no growth?

How much time do we have? Just today we hear that Israel is considering bombing Iran. And business commentators are now looking beyond Greece to Italy. But Italy is too large for Germany and France to save. If the EU unravels, the consequence for the world economy is not pretty. So how much time do we have? I would say, “Not much.”

We need to look hard and find that extra solution to our problem. We need a solution that strengthens the aloha spirit and is proven technology, low cost, stable and an economic driver. Our solution needs to create no emissions and be large enough to make a real difference.

The answer is geothermal. But our electric utility is operating with one hand tied behind its back. It has a fiduciary duty to its shareholders, which prevents it from finding that one solution that solves all our problems.

We need to untie the utility’s hands.

Read the rest of this series on the 2011 Peak Oil Conference:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

2011 Peak Oil Conference, Part 3: Energy Return on Energy Invested

I was Hawai‘i County’s representative to the 2011 Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference in Washington, D.C., which just concluded.

This was the fourth time I’ve attended the conference. After my first ASPO conference it hit me: I learned too much! It became my kuleana.

This is the third in a series of posts about information gleaned from this year’s conference. Note that everything I’m writing about is based on numbers, not my opinions. I am relaying information from very credible people who have gone through the peer review process and been vetted.

Energy Return on Energy invested (EROI or EROEI)

In a sentence, the definition of EROI: “The energy it takes to get energy – minus the energy it takes to get food – equals our lifestyle.”

Charles Hall, David Murphy and others, who have done peer-reviewed analyses of the concept of EROI, argue that organisms, organizations and civilizations must generate surplus energy in order to survive. A mother cheetah must be able to chase down rabbits and gazelles, miss a few, feed the kids and still have enough energy to run down more or else the species goes extinct. Ancient civilizations followed this principle.

This is Charley Hall, the father of EROI, on the left.

IMG_0016

Awhile ago, I read through his paper “What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?, which he authored with Stephen Balogh and David Murphy, and I immediately got it. At the conference, I asked Charley to autograph a copy of it for me.

I was sitting right next to him and asked him how come there are no analyses for “hot” geothermal, like we have in Hawai‘i and Iceland. His answer was that we are a tiny part of the world solution. I guess so – we are only 2 million out of 7 billion people that are so lucky.

If it takes more energy to get the energy (as in some biofuels), then someone needs to explain to regular folks why we would do that. Otherwise, we start thinking about Easter Island.

Can we pay back our debts if the economy cannot grow? It is clear that the economy cannot stand a triple digit oil price. We have been using twice as much oil as we have been finding for more than 20 years now.

AC1058

And it is becoming more difficult and, consequently, more expensive to develop new sources. It seems reasonable to assume that oil prices will rise and fall with demand. But the prices will tend to keep rising as the population’s demand rises and as old fields naturally decline.

And doesn’t modern economic theory assume continuous growth? But growth stops when oil reaches triple digits per barrel. Are we facing the end of growth? It is prudent that we plan for the worse and hope for the best.

Both Gail Tverberg and Jeff Rubin write blogs about this (both their blogs are always available by clicking in the side bar at right).

Here I am with Gail. I cannot refute her arguments, so I spend all my time figuring out workarounds. That’s why I push geothermal so hard. It’s the bridge that will enables other renewables to cross.

IMG_0020

Hawaii Pacific University (HPU) in Honolulu is sponsoring a talk about the end of growth by Richard Heinberg on November  9th. Heinberg is a Senior Fellow-in-Residence at Post Carbon Institute, a nonprofit organization dedicated to “building more resilient, sustainable, and equitable communities.”

This is Richard Heinberg on the left.

IMG_0019

This series of posts about my trip to the 2011 Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) continues. Read Part 4 here.

Go back to Part 1 and Part 2.

2011 Peak Oil Conference, Part 2: Impressions From the Conference

This is my fourth Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference. Here are some highlights and some of my impressions:

Robert Hirsch pointed out that what we have is a liquid fuel problem, not an energy problem. Sixty percent of the world oil supply comes from a few giant oilfields. And giant oilfields decline naturally. The problem is that we have been using twice as much oil as we have been finding for 20 to 30 years.

There is some near-term potential: gas to liquids, coal to liquids, heavy oil refining, enhanced oil recovery and energy efficiency. He points out that in the long term we must implement much more electricity use. Robert Hirsch always makes common sense to me. His book The Impending World Energy Mess is well worth reading.

Robert Rapier pointed out that the U.S. uses 23 barrels of oil per person per year, while China uses only two barrels per person. At present oil prices, China’s economy is growing while ours is barely staying above water.

This is a zero sum game – they want to improve their standard of living, and we cannot afford to pay more, so our per barrel use must shrink. It looks to me that the Chinese cannot wait to jump into their cars and drive to McDonalds. I’m thinking, too, that we in Hawai‘i should be trying to implement lower cost energy as a top priority as we move toward renewables. Like geothermal?

Jeff Rubin: Two thirds of our economy is consumer spending. Peak Oil is not about how much oil there is, it’s about how much we can afford to pay for it. To grow the economy, we need cheaper oil. Market clearing prices do not seem to be compatible with economic growth.Transporting goods uses liquid fuels and the longer the distance the more the cost. Debt means borrowing on our future. We have done a lot of that. I wonder, will there be growth so we can pay it back?

There are links to both Jeff Rubin’s and Robert Rapier’s blogs in our sidebar, at right.

From the first ASPO conference that I attended, in Houston in 2007, it was immediately apparent to me that we needed to implement geothermal sooner rather than later.

I also learned a lot on the trip to Iceland that Ro Marth and I took. Iceland had the biggest economic collapse in the history of the world. The banks had been privatized a few years earlier and they just went crazy lending money to anyone without worrying about payback ability.

When the banks could not pay their obligations, the Icelanders let the banks collapse and they are now prosecuting the bankers for fraud. The big story behind all this is that Iceland is pulling themselves out of the hole. And that is exactly what I went to see for myself.

I saw that cheap energy is what saved them. And in Hawaii, we can do the same – with geothermal in the short term and with all the other renewables we have in abundance in the longer term.

Hawaii and Iceland, with a combined population of 2 million people, have the best geothermal resource in the world.

Our Big Island will be over the “hot spot” for the next 500,000 to a million years.

Our two million people, out of the 7 billion people in the world, are so lucky.

More commentary to come….

In the meantime, here are some pictures from Washington, D.C. This is Helen Davis, an energy staff member for Rep. Hirono. I’m so happy to see Hawai‘i’s people represented at the conference.

IMG_0027

Occupying the Capitol. There are rows of tents, all neatly organized. More than 50. I understand there is another Occupy encampment, too.

IMG_0030

When I was walking toward the Capitol, I saw this monument in a park.

IMG_0010

Read Part 3 of this series.

Go back to Part 1.

2011 Peak Oil Conference, Part 1: As the ASPO Conference Gears Up

Some thoughts as the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference is about to start here in Washington, D.C.:

The bad news

We are using twice as much oil as we have been finding for the last 20-30 years. And we are getting closer to the intersection of increasing world population and a finite resource.

Shale gas – 70 percent of the gas that comes from a gas well is used up in the first year. We do not have close to a 100 year supply. Lucky if we have 25 years’ worth.

Biofuels – The EPA had to revise its 2011 estimate of U.S. cellulosic biofuels downward from 250 million gallons to 6.5 million gallons. Also, the net energy derived from producing biofuels is very low.

The U.S. mainland has a liquid fuel transportation problem. Hawai‘i has both a liquid fuel transportation problem as well as a liquid fuel electricity problem.

The good news

Compared to the rest of the world’s population of 7 billion people, the 2 million people of Iceland and Hawai‘i have the best geothermal resource in the world.

The Big Island will be over the “hot spot” for 500,000 to 1 million years.

Geothermal costs around 10 cents per kWh to produce electricity. Oil, at $100 per barrel, costs more than 20 cents/kWh. Geothermal energy cost will stay stable for 500,000 years while oil will rise to unaffordable levels soon.

Like our ancient people a long time ago, we must make decisions for future generations. Can we continue to wait and hope for the best, or do we force change?

Let’s go!

Go to Part 2 of this series.

Visiting Upcountry Maui Farms

The Board of Agriculture recently held its monthly meeting on Maui, and after the meeting we visited several farms in upcountry Maui. It was really good to see the successful farm operations.

Clark Hashimoto’s Persimmon Farm produces value-added products like jellies and dried persimmons.

Clark

Persimmons drying

Clark’s 90-year-old mom was busy helping to dry persimmons.

Clark's mom

Their 90-year-old persimmon tree. (They are the same age!)

90-yr-old persimmon tree

I had not realized just how tasty persimmons can be.

Waipoli Hydroponic Greens in Kula was very impressive – it’s very functional, well-organized and efficient.

Waipoli hydroponic farm

As a fellow farmer, I could see how well run that farm was. This is owner Geoff Haines.

Photo

They started from nothing and grew the business using ingenuity, the Internet, handwork and common sense. I was very impressed.

Chauncey Monden’s Kula Country Farms and its pumpkin patch was full of people, even on a weekday.

Owner Chauncey Monden is 30-something and has a finance degree. So I said, “You know how to keep score!”

Owner Chauncey Monden

Grown not flown

It was a fun experience for families with small kids.

Baby & small animals

Bananas & pumpkins

They grow Kula strawberries here.

Kula strawberries are grown here

Tangerines and pumpkins

Department of Agriculture Chairman Russell Kokubun.

Dept of Ag chair Kokubun

Mahalo for visiting

It was nice to see these successful farming operations.

Sitting Down With the Face of the Future

Last week I got a call to meet with a group of young folks at Starbucks. They are very aware of the effects of world population growth running into finite resources. They appealed to me saying they want to help move Hawai‘i off fossil fuels and onto indigenous resources. And they want to move now, not tomorrow!

Blog

They told me that their generation has no hope in Hawai‘i. They said they have no hope of ever owning their own homes. Jobs are hard to come by. Even if one graduates from college, what then? They understand the connection of oil prices to recession and expansion. They know that it is the cost of energy that is affecting our economy.

This meeting really hit me hard. I was talking to people who are actually being affected by the consequences of finite resources. Yet they are absolutely determined to help make a better future for future generations. They are about more than just me; they are about all of us. I am so hopeful for the next generation.

Reflecting on what they told me, I thought about Law Professor and current U.S. Senate Candidate Elizabeth Warren. Watch this clip, about which the Washington Monthly says: “First-time candidates don’t usually articulate a progressive economical message quite this well.”

A quote from the clip:

“You built a factory out there? Good for you. But I want to be clear: you moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did.

“Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea? God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.”

Two years ago, I wrote about and linked to another speech she gave. It, too, is really worth a listen. She talks about how much has changed in just the one generation from the 1970s to the 2000s. We went from families having one person as the breadwinner to two people being the breadwinner, yet didn’t gain any ground.

Some of her points: In the 1970s, a married couple with two kids had one parent in the workforce and saved 11 percent of their income. To get into the middle class, their kids needed to get a high school diploma and to be willing to work hard. That 12 years of education that their children needed, to get into the middle class, was free.

Warren says that the most important thing that happened in the first two-thirds of the 20th century was that women entered the work force.

From my blog back then:

In the 2000s, a similar married couple with two kids must have two people in the work force – because, she says using numbers adjusted for inflation, median mortgage payments in 2005 are 76 percent higher than they were in 1970. Health insurance – in a healthy family with employee-sponsored health insurance – costs the family 74 percent more. Childcare costs have increased 100 percent, and as compared to the 1970s family a 2000s family has the expense of a second car because of that second person in the workforce, and because of that second income their tax rate is up by 25 percent.

In comparable dollars, the 2005 family is actually spending much less on clothes, food, appliances and cars than the 1970s family did; it’s the non-flexible, big ticket and important expenses that have increased so dramatically and that require that second income.

So a comparable married couple with two kids in 2005 has no savings (compared to the 1970s couple, who saved 11 percent of their earnings), and 15 percent of their income is in credit card debt as they try to keep up.

To launch their kids into the middle class requires 16 years of schooling, and the 2005 family has to pay for the first two years (preschool) and the last four years (college) themselves.

So much happened in just one generation, 30 years, and we didn’t even notice it. And change is coming even quicker today. What’s happening in the world now makes me think that Elizabeth Warren’s 30 years is being compressed into 10 years or less now. We can see it all around us.

We are already in the middle of it, and many folks are so busy running on the treadmill that they don’t notice it. We do not have the time luxury of acting on wrong information.

That is why I am encouraging folks in important decision-making positions to attend the Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference. Its theme is Truth in Energy.

I am so happy that young people see it and want to do something about it.

They told me: “Not, no can. CAN!”

Mark Glick is New Head of DBEDT’s Energy Division

Jeff Rubin, former Chief Economist for CIBC Bank of Canada, says it’s not about oil supply, but it is more about oil we can afford to burn. I like him because his reasoning makes common sense. If we cannot afford the renewable energy solution, what is the point?

Mark Glick was just appointed head of the Energy Division of the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. Back when I was supporting the Thirty-Meter Telescope, Mark was President of the Sierra Club, and I had an issue with them.

I pointed out that the Sierra Club is anti-Hawaiian in carrying out its policies. I made clear that I was not against the people who belonged to the Sierra Club – I was a member, and the folks were my friends. I just called its policy anti-Hawaiian.

By all indications, Mark is very well-qualified for his new position. But he needs to keep in mind that when choosing renewable alternatives, people have to be able to afford it. The Energy Department’s policies will have a huge effect on Hawai‘i’s economy. Some people, like me, believe it will have the largest effect.

It’s the folks on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder that get their lights turned off first. Too often, they will be Hawaiians.

Energy policy must balance distributed generation, so we do not end up with the “haves” leaving the grid, and the “have nots” and small businesses being left to pay for the grid.

If we use proven-technology, indigenous, low-cost energy – such as geothermal – we will become more competitive with the rest of the world. This will stimulate economic activity.

Hawaii is blessed with abundant natural energy resources. We must maximize our resources. But we also need to prioritize wisely.

Choosing low-cost energy will benefit everyone; not only the rubbah slippah folks.