The International Energy Association (IEA) just issued its World Energy Outlook (WEO) for 2010. 

This graph shows that oil production from presently producing oil fields is projected to decline from around 65 million barrels/day to 20 million barrels/day in 2010. That’s 45 million barrels per day less coming out of today’s aging oil fields.

It’s approximately 1.8 million barrels/day less every year. From a previous WEO report, it was estimated that oil fields decline annually, due to old age, at around 4 million barrels per year. In order for our oil supply to stay steady until 2035, we would need to find 2.2 million barrels every year from now until 2035. This means we need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia every 4.5 to 5 years. That’s five Saudi Arabias in 25 years.

We know that we’ve been using two to three times more oil than we’ve been finding for the past 20 to 30 years. We must change our behavior.

Here in Hawai‘i, we have many renewable options. Geothermal is a proven technology, has less impact on the environment and is cheap relative to the other options.

The report concludes: