Tag Archives: IEA

Iceland, In Conclusion

I want to conclude my “Iceland Series” by pointing out something very simple and straightforward that they have learned in Iceland and put into practice, but that we in Hawai‘i have not:

Cheap and proven technology, and clean energy projects, protect an economy from oil crises.

If what the International Energy Association says is true – that we have come to the end of cheap oil – then the bottom line is that by decoupling from expensive oil, we protect ourselves. It is the cost that’s important, not the color or anything else.

In Hawai‘i, we are trying to replace fossil fuel oil with biofuels. But if the replacement is as expensive as oil – which biofuels for electricity generation is – this doesn’t do us any good.

Geothermal, on the other hand, would totally disconnect us from the high cost of energy. It’s the cost that is the most important. And because it’s safer to diversify, we should also maximize our other energy sources, such as wind and solar, without destabilizing the electric grid.

When you go over to Iceland, you see that they have inoculated themselves from rising oil prices. In doing so, they have also made themselves food secure, because their electricity is cheap relative to other sources of energy. For instance, when they export aluminum, which is electricity-intensive, as long as their electricity costs are lower than that of their competitors, they will always have money coming into their economy.

Iceland’s economy depends on cheap energy and fishing as its base. (And Iceland’s tourism increased when the country devalued its currency, so cheap energy had a double benefit.) Hawai‘i’s economy depends on the military and tourism. We need a third leg to give our economy some stability and security.

It was interesting for me to see how a native people, left to their own devices, coped. As of today, Iceland is more energy and food secure than Hawaii! This is why Ku‘oko‘a needs to purchase HEI. The rubbah slippah folks all know this to be true.

Cheap electricity makes an economy competitive in the world. This is where the people’s needs and the utility’s needs should coincide.

Everybody knows that Iceland’s economy crashed in 2008. That happened because they privatized their banking industry, the banks went crazy, and they got caught by the downturn. But because the country has cheap energy, they are pulling out of their recession and the excesses of their banks – while we are struggling to forestall a double dip recession.

This shows us that if you’re in a competitive position relative to energy, and you don’t do anything stupid, you can withstand any oil-induced depression or recession, which is where the world is headed.

Iceland is also concerned about its dependence on fossil fuel for transportation. It has a commercial hydrogen refueling station, and I rode in an SUV powered by methane from municipal waste. They are even looking into making liquid fuels from geothermal electricity and CO2.

Iceland is like a little lab. You go over there and look at the country and say, “Holy smokes! It can be done.”

Now to do it here.

Defining Terms & Why Oahu’s In Trouble

Base Power: Eighty percent of the feed source (oil, geothermal energy, biofuels) that an electric utility uses to produce electricity must result in what is called “base load” power. Base Load Power is the power that keeps electricity flowing smoothly to customers, so there aren’t rolling blackouts and flickering lights.

Because 80 percent of the utilities’ power must be base load power, one should pay close attention to the cost of that base load power.

Intermittent Power: The other 20 percent, made up mostly of sun power and wind power, is “intermittent power.” Big Wind falls into the 20 percent category.

O‘ahu depends overwhelmingly on oil for its base power. The utility could import biofuels, but biofuels are much more expensive than oil.

The International Energy Association, which represents the “rich” countries of the world, warns that the era of cheap oil is over.

In Jan 2011, the cost to generate electricity from oil was approximately 16 cents per kWh. By June (when oil was close to $100 per barrel) this had increased to 22 cents/kWh.

Barrons and Goldman Sachs predict that oil will cost $150/barrel within two quarters, and so we can guess that the cost to make electricity from oil may be more than 30 cents/kWh.

And Lloyds of London warns of $200 oil by 2013 – so 40 cents/kWh to make electricity? That’s less than two years from now, and almost double what it costs now.

By contrast, electricity from geothermal is estimated to cost around 10 cents/kWh and this would not change much over the years. Jim Kauahikaua, the chief scientist at the Hawaii Volcano Observatory, told me that the Big Island would be over the hot spot that generates geothermal activity for 500,000 to a million years.

Below is one estimation of the world’s future oil supply. In spite of rising prices, world oil supply has not increased since 2004. Keep in mind that we may not have started to drop down the backside of the world oil supply curve – YET.

Oahu is in trouble!

Unconstrained-demand