Yesterday I gave a talk at the Sheraton Outrigger in Keauhou. The talk was for the Water Works Association of Hawaii, which is the umbrella association of all of Hawai‘i’s water departments.
The Water Works Association meeting agenda.
I started off by describing all the different hats I wear: Farmer; Co-Chair of the Geothermal Working Group, and Chairman of the Board of Ku‘oko‘a.
I talked about the Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) operating with one hand tied behind its back. HECO has a fiduciary duty to its shareholders and so it cannot do all the things it might want to do to help Hawai‘i’s people. For instance, it would have a difficult time lowering Hawai‘i’s electricity rates – by closing its oil-fired plants and bringing on significant amounts of geothermal – without hurting its shareholders’ stock price.
HECO is under much pressure lately. Ku‘oko‘a wants to untie HECO’s hand so it can be the utility all its people want it to be. We don’t want to take HECO over; we want to empower HECO for the benefit of Hawai‘i’s people.
The main point I tried to make in my talk was that time is getting short. And that there is more than enough evidence to show that oil prices will rise in the future. It is not about whether or not one particular theory is right or wrong. The evidence we see all around us is compelling enough.
The reason I know about this is that I have attended three Peak Oil Conferences, and this subject has been on my radar for more than five years now.
We know that the peak of oil discovery was in the 1960s. For the last 20 years, we have been using twice as much oil as we have been finding.
We also know that all oil fields decline eventually. In fact, the natural decline rate of all the oil fields put together requires us to find a Saudi Arabia every two to three years. Clearly we have not been doing this.
Oil exporting countries will use more and more of their own oil. This means less for the rest of us. They must do this, in order to keep their people happy, or the dictators will get thrown out of office.
China and India use much less oil per person than we do, yet their economies keep on growing. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser points out that our electricity rates are approaching the high point of 2008. Our people are suffering, and yet China and India can pay this oil price while their economies keep growing.
And we have not even passed the peak of oil supply. Trying to be safe by doing nothing is no longer safe. We need to think different.
More on all this in my recent editorials for Civil Beat.
