Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources

Envy Of The World

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Here is an easy-to-understand video that explains Peak Oil, and it’s well worth watching.

It isn’t a theory of when oil will run out. Rather, it’s a description of what happens to oil wells as they age, and it makes simple collective observations and assumptions about all the oil wells in the world. It is simple and easy to predict that oil will become more and more costly.

When that happens, we will need to get out of the line of fire. It’s not complicated.

We are incredibly lucky here on the Big Island, because we have a geothermal resource beneath us at many locations all around the island. The State owns this resource. They should go map it out and contract out the energy production to the highest bidder. Part of the rents and royalties would go to the Native Hawaiian people, on whose land it sits, and the actual energy would benefit all of us.

Geothermal energy can also be used to make hydrogen. In the future we will run our cars and trucks on hydrogen, using the internal combustion engine. Here’s a clip of a hydrogen car that was shown on Good Morning America.

The electric utilities are using internal combustion engines — just larger  than most. Could we run it all on hydrogen? If hydrogen can be used in regular car engines, could it be used in the diesel engines that the electric utilities use to generate electricity?

Can you imagine it? The biggest and the best telescope in the world located on the Big Island. And most of the state’s electricity needs powered by geothermal wells on the Big Island. Rents and royalties would go to Native Hawaiian people and the rest of us would have the benefit of being free of Middle East oil.

We would be the envy of the world.

Not, no can. CAN!

Big Island, Peak Oil, Sustainability

Hawaii In The Time Of Peak Oil

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In June of last year, Gail Tverberg wrote this post at The Oil Drum Blog, and just a few days ago she reposted it:

Hawaii seems to come up often in the thinking of people aware of peak oil. On one hand, it seems like an ideal place to relocate after peak oil – no need to worry about heating a house; clothing is mostly for protection from the sun; and crops can be grown year around. On the other hand, it produces no fossil fuel itself, and it is at the end of the supply line for both food and fuel. Hawaii’s biggest industry, tourism, is already declining, and with rising fuel costs, can only decline further.

When the Kohala Center started planning its energy conference a while back, I recommended they invite Gail to be the featured speaker. I had met her at the Peak Oil conference in Houston and was very familiar with her writing on The Oil Drum. As an insurance actuary, she assesses risk for the insurance industry. I like what she writes because it is clear and easy to understand.

She gave two talks in Hilo. The first was at the energy conference itself and the second, a free presentation to the Kanaka Council that I arranged.

I took her sightseeing around the Big Island over that weekend, so I got to chat with her quite a bit about oil supply matters.

Here is a very interesting post she did at the Energy Bulletin in March 2009. She wrote:

Nearly all of the economic analyses we see today have as their basic premise a view that the current financial crisis is a temporary aberration. We will have a V or U shaped recovery, especially if enough stimulus is applied, and the economy will soon be back to Business as Usual.

I believe this assumption is basically incorrect. The current financial crisis is a direct result of peak oil. There may be oscillations in the economic situation, but generally, we can’t expect things to get much better. In fact, there is a very distinct possibility that things may get very much worse in the next few years.

Whether or not one believes Gail is right — that the current financial crisis is caused by Peak Oil — it is prudent that we plan for the worse and hope for the best. I think our most reasonable path is to actively pursue geothermal energy. We must help HELCO figure out how to decommission their oil-fired plants — put them in moth balls, in standby mode, and replace them with geothermal plants, preferably ones that are geographically diversified. At the same time, we need to figure out how to leave their stockholders whole. We can do this.

The reason we need geothermal is that geothermal energy costs are stable. With geothermal, our electricity and water bills would not go up as oil prices rise. And our transportation costs could stabilize, as well. We could have a successful economy here in Hawai‘i in spite of rising oil prices.

If we don’t go geothermal, rising foreign oil costs could bankrupt us. Our society could come apart.

Switching to geothermal is not an option; it is a necessity. We all know this.

Community, Government, Mauna Kea

What We Are For

Something interesting is starting to happen.

The Governor has been giving speeches using what happened here on the Big Island – residents turning out to support the Thirty Meter Telescope – as an example.

In a recent speech, Governor Lingle said:

“In our time it seems to be that people are real quick to tell you what they’re against and what they don’t want, but they don’t seem to be able to articulate a clear vision for what we do want. What are we for? And then put at least as much effort behind what we’re for as behind what we’re against.”

Lee Cataluna wrote yesterday, in her Honolulu Advertiser column, about that recent Lingle speech:

[Lingle] used the example of Hilo residents demonstrating in support of a new Thirty Meter Telescope. They held signs for what they wanted. “Picture this: The community coming out on the street, not for something they were against, but something they were for … They got the telescope. They’re building that bright future for the kids there on the Big Island.

We thought we’d rerun our post from June 15, 2009, to show what she’s talking about:

***

It was a coalition of folks from all sectors of the population that came to wave signs the other day.

Signs1
It’s about the keiki. Kumiko S. Usuda, Outreach Scientist (Astronomer) at the Subaru Telescope, and her children.

June & Dina
June Ha and Dina

Signs3
It’s not about us. It’s about future generations. This is Suzy Dill and her future generation.

Signs4
Pete Lindsey and the boys

Signs5
Waiakea High School Robotics club

Signs6
UH Hilo Astronomy/Physics Professor Marianne Takamiya and family

Signs7
left, Barbara Hastings, Outgoing President of the Hawaii Island Chamber of Commerce; center, Incoming President Mary Begier

It is not about us anymore. Now it is about the keiki and future
generations. It was very gratifying to see high school students, young kids, a hapai mom – the next generations.

The Labor Union and business folks were there, too. Jobs are about families and the here and now.

The Big Island Labor Alliance played an important role. The labor folks tell me that there are by far more Hawaiian workers on the bench now than all the people who testified on both sides of the issue at the Comprehensive Management Plan hearing recently. They wonder why their voices are not heard.

There were educators there, too, who think about the value of new learning.

It was uplifting to hear all the people blowing their horns in support. It was louder this time than last. All kinds of different sounds — especially raucous were the big rigs and their air horns!

Eating Locally, Government

Act 175, New Procurement Law

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The Honolulu Advertiser ran an article – Hawaii law may hurt farmers; Bid process could bring more outside competition – last week. It talks about Act 175, the new law that requires state agencies to gather competitive bids before buying food and other agricultural products.

Although there was a preference for local agricultural products in the previous law, the Hawaii Administrative Rules exempted local products from the law that required open competition, transparency of government purchasing practices, and additional preferences such as small business ones.

The state could have chosen to give preference to local produce with this new law; they just chose not to.

From the Advertiser article:

While the intent of the law is to support local growers, not all officials are convinced that will be the effect….Competitive procurement is expected to draw more Mainland competition, even with the 15 percent advantage given to local growers.

Farmers are incredulous. Prior to enactment of Act 175, state agencies purchased very little from local farmers. What’s to lose?

“If … it becomes a competitive process, we’re not sure exactly what the effect would be – whether it would be positive or negative, because nobody has any experience with that,” said state Agriculture Director Sandra Lee Kunimoto. “But the farm bureau and the farmers felt it was worth trying to see if it would increase the purchase of local goods.”

State Procurement Office Administrator Aaron Fujioka agreed. “It didn’t have to be competed, and it could be all purchased local from local companies locally grown,” Fujioka said. “The prior exemptions allowed agencies, if they chose, to purchase only from local companies and locally grown fresh produce and meats. They could have done that. Now that choice is no longer available. It has to go through a formal, more structured process.”

State agencies could have chosen to buy local produce, but they all chose not to. Out of 650 Big Island Farm Bureau members, I know of only one who sells to state agencies – and she has to go through a third party. Hawai‘i farmers know it is impossible to get produce into the schools and other state agencies.

We farmers welcome a formal, more structured process. But this time we want to help structure that process.

According to the state Procurement Office, state agencies purchased $6.63 million of fresh meat and produce from November 2005 through January 2009. The average award was about $7,400. The top three suppliers during that period in terms of dollar volume of sales were Love’s Bakery ($907,813), Meadow Gold Dairies ($511,295) and Mikilua Poultry Farm ($500,000). The top three suppliers in terms of number of awards were: Ham Produce (162), Hilo Products (133) and Armstrong Local Produce (132).

Procurement Office data suggest that most fresh food and produce purchased by state agencies came from local wholesalers and retailers. What isn’t clear is whether those local firms acquired their produce from local farms.

That is exactly the problem. It’s as if the state procurement office is saying: “Since we are buying from a local wholesaler, it must be local produce.” Farmers just shake their heads and go back to farming.

Farmers have known for years that the system is broken. There is no data to show how much of the state procurement is locally grown foods. How would the state know if their policy of “supporting local” is working?

The state says, “We support local farmers.” Farmers think, “It’s not what you say; it’s what you do.”

Farmers shake their heads. We know that the more fresh vegetables we import, the more inspectors we need and the higher the risk of invasive species.  We have more endangered species here in Hawai‘i than in the whole rest of the United States.

“The Big Island farm bureau polled their members, and they’ve got 650 members – and they only had one producer selling on a regular basis to the state and one who shipped their first shipment this year,” Connally said. “Their sense was their products were not going into the state facilities.

“If the farmers see that there’s a steady market available, then they can produce for that market.”

It’s what I keep saying: “If the farmers make money, the farmers will farm.”

Food security; the dangers of exporting our economy because of rising oil prices; protecting our endangered species – when we are truly supporting local farmers, we are addressing all of these concerns.

The world has changed and we no longer have the luxury of bumbling along. For the sake of future generations, we need to get serious.

Farmers understand this very clearly. This is not rocket science.

Farmers who are interested in helping push implementation forward can contact their legislators, the governor’s office and the state procurement office.

It may not be in the farmer’s nature to be vocal, but we need to make some noise.

Renewable Energy Sources

Extra! Extra!

A letter of understanding was published yesterday. It was signed by most of the world’s major auto makers — Daimler, Ford, GM/Opel, Honda, Hyundai/KIA, the Alliance Renault/Nissan, Toyota — and encourages governments to develop a uniform hydrogen transportation infrastructure by 2015.

From the letter:

…In order to ensure a successful market introduction of fuel cell vehicles, this market introduction has to be aligned with the build-up of the necessary hydrogen infrastructure. Therefore a hydrogen infrastructure network with sufficient density is required by 2015. The network should be built-up from metropolitan areas via corridors into area-wide coverage….

Let’s get on board!

Most people know that hydrogen is feasible using renewable, stranded power. It does not work when the power comes from fossil fuels.

Geothermal works! It can power up electricity as well as support a hydrogen transportation system.

Biofuel, Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources

Following In The Footsteps of Easter Island?

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If we keep chasing after oil as the price keeps rising – if we keep at it long enough – we will end up like Easter Island, unable to sustain ourselves.

I have been asked to be a board member of the Hawaii Biofuel Foundation, a HECO nonprofit that is tasked with exploring biodiesel production for Hawai’i. We are trying to determine if biofuels will work here in Hawai’i.

From the Wall Street Journal:

US Biofuels Boom Running on Empty

BY ANN DAVIS AND RUSSELL GOLD

The biofuels revolution, which promised to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil, is fizzling out.
       
Two-thirds of U.S. biodiesel production capacity now sits unused, reports the National Biodiesel Board. Biodiesel, a crucial part of government efforts to develop alternative fuels for trucks and factories, has been hit hard by the recession and falling oil prices.
       
The global credit crisis, a glut of capacity, lower oil prices and delayed government rules changes on fuel mixes are threatening the viability of two of the three main biofuel sectors – biodiesel and next-generation fuels derived from feedstocks other than food.

Biofuel production is farming and it requires farmers. As we all know – “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm.”

As a board member, I will tell the rest of the board that when oil is $200 per barrel, that’s the same as 70 cents per pound liquid. It would likely take at least 4 pounds of stuff to squeeze out one pound of liquid. It does not matter if it’s mac nuts, kukui nuts, jatropha or palm nuts. If that’s the case, a farmer can expect to get no more than 18 cents per pound for his or her crop. No sense. Lose money. Better to grow cucumber or eggplant.

And since the input cost to grow, squeeze and transport the stuff is all oil-related, the price the farmer needs to get also rises as oil price rise. It’s kind of like chasing the mechanical rabbit at the dog race track. The dogs never catch the rabbit.

One way of evaluating an energy source is by analyzing the Energy Return On Investment (EROI). In the 1930s, the EROI ratio for a barrel of oil was 100 to 1, meaning it took one barrel of oil to get 100 barrels. In the 1970s, it  dropped to 30 to 1. A few years ago it was only about 10 to 1.

Professor Charles A. S. Hall, of State University of New York, is the leading expert on EROI analysis. He estimates that the minimum EROI needed to maintain a sustainable society is 3 to 1.

Experts say that biodiesel production is less than 2 to 1. The excess energy that results is not enough to maintain a functioning society.

On the other hand, the EROI for geothermal energy must be higher than 10 to 1. And it will not decline in the near future.

We are incredibly lucky to have this resource here on the Big Island. In addition to its energy-producing potential, it can be a valuable resource for the betterment of the native Hawaiian community. Sited on Hawaiian Homes or OHA lands, the benefits of rents and royalties go to the Hawaiian people.

Film, Renewable Energy Sources, Sustainability

Richard in Documentary Film at Palace Theater Sat. & Sun.

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When I called photojournalist Catherine Bauknight to talk about her new documentary Hawaii A Voice for Sovereignty, she was sitting in her Pasadena home where she could see the flames of
California’s Station Fire burn the closest ridge of the mountains a
mere couple miles away.

She tells a very different story of the land in her Hawai‘i-based documentary, which plays at Hilo’s Palace Theater tomorrow (Saturday, September 5, 2009) at 7 p.m., and Sunday at 2:30 p.m.

Richard was interviewed for and appears in the movie. He told me he was going to go look for his plastic nose and bushy eyebrows so he could go see the movie this weekend but stay anonymous. I’d love to see that.

From Catherine Bauknight’s website:

Hawaii A Voice for Sovereignty, is a documentary about the native Hawaiian’s journey to sustain their culture, spirituality, and connection to the land. This modern epic documentary, filmed over four years, contains rare interviews with Native Hawaiians in their homes, at sacred sites, in mountains and the rain forests. Along with the voices of these “people of the land”, Professor Haunani-Kay Trask, Senator J. Kalani English, Grammy nominee Willie K and other Hawaiian leaders, take us into rarely seen ancient lifestyles where spirituality, culture, and care for the land form a sacred bond between humankind and the natural
world. They reveal their quest to secure their Hawaiian rights as the host  culture, and their economic, social, and ecological future. By bridging their ancient knowledge with modern technologies such as wind, solar, and wave renewable energy and agricultural land systems they move towards their goal of sustainability.

Here’s the film’s trailer.

Catherine is a seasoned photojournalist whose work has appeared in Time, Newsweek and People magazines, as well as in the New York Times, USA Today and Rolling Stone. She was one of five international journalists who covered the Tiananmen Square massacre.

She says Hawai‘i was someplace she came to relax, but after awhile she started looking around. “I started trying to figure out why the Hawaiians weren’t visible in their own environment,” she says, “and that led to this four-year documentary.”

She says she started asking questions and went from person to person getting recommendations on people to speak with who were knowledgeable about the Hawaiian culture. “They all told me, You cannot discuss the culture without discussing the relationship between the land and the people and the spiritualism and the sovereignty we are seeking.”

She also kept hearing about the need for Hawaiians to have their land and live sustainable lives, and then she heard about Richard.

“I asked Woody Vaspra, who is part of the Sundance ceremonies, if he knew of anyone who was living off the land and making a living off it and also including the Hawaiian people,” she says. “He suggested Richard, and when I spoke to Richard I realized he was exactly what I was looking for – that he is going back to the land and working on becoming sustainable, and also working toward using renewable resources. It was perfect.”

(“I have no idea how we fit into the story line,” says Richard. “I just gave my standard explanation of what we do at the farm.”)

Catherine calls the film an “oral history of Native Hawaiians.”

“These are the kupunas, the scholars, people who are grassroots,” she says. “It’s a combination of Hawaiians from all walks of life, and one of the most interesting things is that their message is the same. No matter what their background, from the most grassroots to the most highly educated. The message about the Hawaiian future, the land and spirituality is the same.

“And it’s the story of the Hawaiian people all the way back to the takeover,” she says, “in their own voice – but not presented with anger, it’s presented as facts. And it leads up to the renaissance of the Hawaiian people with hope and unity.”

She says they’ve sent information to the schools here and she especially hopes people will bring kids to see this story. “I’ve been told that children as young as 7 years old have sat down and watched this film from beginning to end, and it’s 84 minutes.”

It sounds like, in addition to the oral histories by native Hawaiians, there’s a lot to catch a child’s attention. “There’s hula,” she says, “and an ancient, very spiritual style of drumming and nose flute by Willie K. He doesn’t really do that publicly, but he did it in the rainforest especially for this film. He also does this amazing live rendition of ‘Spirits in the Wind.’”

Other musicians appear in the documentary, such as Lono from Molokai, George Kahomoku, Cyril Pahinui, Richard Ho‘opi‘i and
Makana. Catherine says the film’s soundtrack will be available on CD in a couple weeks. Watch for information about that in about a week at her website.

On Wednesday the film became eligible to be nominated for an Academy Award, and so it will open at the Coliseum Cinemas in Manhattan on September 15th, and the Laemmle Theater in Hollywood on September 23rd.

And then the film will travel and screen across the Pacific islands, following the route early Polynesians took on their voyage to become Hawaiians until it gets back to New Zealand.

Now Catherine says she is looking for business sponsors, who will have their logo on the film “from now until eternity.” She says there is just a little more than a week left to sign up sponsors, and interested parties can contact her here.

Palace Theater Tickets are $7 general, $6 for seniors and students, and $5 for Friends of the Palace. Call 934-7010 for more information.

Peak Oil, Sustainability

Families of Farms: An Introduction

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I wrote in a recent post about how much I admired Uncle Sonny’s ability to grow great watermelons in a very effective and efficient way. Over the years, I have noticed that this is a characteristic I see all the time in small farmers’ operations.

So how are we going to supply food for Hawaii’s people, in the variety that the community will need, so they won’t need to travel so often? And on the community scale, how will we have enough variety to feed the community around us?

This is how the concept of “Families of Farms” came to me. I asked myself, What happens if we lease lands and hydroponic houses to area farmers?

Our idea is that we would each bring certain resources to make the whole more than the sum of the parts. We believe that this will help each of us make more money together than if we operated independently. So it’s in all of our interests to stay together.

•    We would get effective and efficient farmers working with us. Small farmers do not waste anything. And we would get more production than what we could do ourselves
•    We would get more variety than we could do ourselves
•    We would get more young farmers into farming
•    We would bring the water and electricity resource that we have
•    We would bring our technical expertise
•    We would bring our marketing and distribution system
•    We would bring our cooling facilities

We will need to adapt to a new normal. Necessity is the mother of invention.

When oil spiked to $147 per barrel last July, the world changed.  It was such a shock that it threw the world economy into a tailspin. The financial system unwind was probably triggered by this event.

Until then, we had assumed that “big volume” was better and “market share” was everything. But when the oil price spiked, so did everything to do with agriculture. Fertilizer, chemicals, cooling, transportation and packaging – all of these things rose in price with oil.

But our selling price could not go up, because people’s incomes shrank as they paid more for gas, water, electricity as well as other oil-related components.

Knowing that oil is a finite resource and that the world’s population is growing at the rate of 70 million per year, it is clear that oil prices will eventually go up again, and probably higher than before. So we asked ourselves: What will the world look like in five and 10 years, and where do we want to be in that world?

In 10 years we expect that oil prices will spike higher than $147, but that time when it throws us into recession, the oil prices will probably not drop back to this cycle’s low prices.

And we do not expect that HELCO will have reacted to protect us from rising electric and fresh drinking water prices by putting more geothermal on line. We expect that people will try to save money by driving less. So there will be a new normal to adapt to.

Coming soon: Some of the ideas we are working on.

Eating Locally

Why Local Produce Costs More Than Imported Produce

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In response to a recent Ha Ha Ha! post, Kini asked the question:

Why does the price of produce grown here in Hawai’i continue to be more expensive than produce shipped in from the mainland?

It’s an excellent question, and there are several parts to the answer.

1) One reason, not easily seen, is the over-enthusiastic State policy of facilitating commerce. The Department of Agriculture is required to help mainland and foreign retailers keep their imported produce moving.

Our Department of Agriculture inspectors are instructed to help “clean up” imported produce so it can be moved quickly to retail and thereby facilitate commerce.

If our products do not pass inspection in California, on the other hand, we Hawai‘i farmers pay to have them hauled away for incineration.  We do not dare to ask the California Department of Ag to help “clean up” our products. We worry that they might just ban all products from Hawai‘i.

Some retailers sending produce from outside Hawai‘i expect Department of Agriculture inspectors to routinely drive to individual supermarkets in order to inspect newly arrived air and sea containers of produce. This almost requires Department of Agriculture inspectors to be on call, and there is a cost associated with that process. Why should we taxpayers pay? The effect of this “hat in hat” approach to facilitating imported commerce is that the cost of imported produce appears to be lower than local produce. It sends the wrong message to our local farmers.

Maybe the mainland retailers could pay, into a special fund, the amount necessary to ensure the inspections get done. If that cost was picked up by the importing retailer, then they would mark up the price of their imported produce. The true price of importing produce would be apparent, and local farmers would become more competitive.

I have said it before: “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm.” The over-enthusiastic interpretation of the idea of “facilitation of commerce” serves to discourage farmers here from farming.

Several years ago we supplied the company Harry and David, in Oregon, with apple bananas. This required Federal inspectors on site, and we were charged for the inspectors’ time and travel. We built that cost into the cost of our product.

It seems like that “pay as you go” system works fine for the Federal government. Maybe it can also work for the inspection of incoming products?

2) Another problem is that most of our Hawai‘i farms are small – less than 25 acres. Smaller farms cannot make ends meet without charging higher prices. Also, they do not have the production capability to help their customers stay efficient and competitive. Higher land prices play into the above.

3) Hawai‘i depends on fossil fuel for 78 percent of the generation of its electricity, whereas the U.S. mainland uses oil for only three percent of its electricity generation. This is significant because produce is commonly refrigerated in order to maintain freshness and quality. Oil prices have been rising lately and so Hawai‘i farmers are spending more for refrigeration; or else they are gambling that the decline in quality that results from not cooling will be okay.

This is why we put forth so much effort in passing legislation that will give farmers preference when renewable energy incentives are initiated. It’s about food security. And it’s about sending the right signals to farmers.

In our “families of farms” model, we try to address these issues in a way that acknowledges and builds on the strength of each participant. I’m going to write about our “families of farms” soon.

Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources

The EROI for Geothermal

Here is another good take on EROI (Energy Return On Energy Invested). This video is very interesting and enlightening.

EROI equals the energy it takes to get that energy. That net energy that results, less the energy it takes to produce food, equals our lifestyle.

I wrote the other day that in the 1930s, the EROI (the amount of oil it took to extract more oil) was 100 to 1; it took one barrel of oil to get 100 barrels. A few years ago it was 10-15 to 1. This number is steadily declining because oil is increasingly becoming more difficult to obtain.

When it gets to 1 to 1 there is no sense in continuing. Some folks estimate that in 30 years, most exporting countries will no longer be exporting oil. Maybe we should plan now for the worse.

We don’t need to be engineers to know that the EROI for geothermal is high and that it will stay high. And it will be stable for as long as we can possibly imagine. The odds are much better that oil will become unaffordable much sooner (in less than 30 years) than lava will run over the geothermal wells.

We have an obligation to move toward geothermal now. What will our grandkids and their kids think of us if we don’t?

It is in the best interest of the stockholder that the utility switch to geothermal, too. As all types of oil prices rise, there will be a point of no return when individual alternate energy will be cheaper than oil. When that happens, the electric company’s customers will leave in droves. And they might not have the capital to recover.

The utility customers need a stabilizing force for electricity generation. So it is in the best interest of all of us that the utility protects us from high oil prices.