How To Boil A Frog

Go to the How to Boil A Frog website and click on EROI.

“EROI” equals “Energy Return on Invested.” It means: how much energy one obtains from getting that energy. It’s a very important concept.

In the 1930s, the EROI for oil was around 100 to 1. Today, it’s around 15 to 1 and declining. When it’s down to only 1 to 1, there’s no sense going any further.

But geothermal is a resource available to us here on the Big Island, and one we know will last a very long time. Longer than oil, for sure.

It’s not rocket science!

Peak Oil Conference Coming Up

The ASPO 2009 International Peak Oil Conference will take place in Denver from October 11 through 13th. This year the conference title is “System Reset: Global Energy and the New Economy.” Registration information is here; I’ll be attending.

I attended the conference two years ago when it was in Houston, and I was the only person from Hawai‘i to attend. It was getting cold in parts of the nation then, and I did not have the heart to tell some of the folks I met that I was going back to Hilo where I would wear shorts right through the winter. Or that our crops grow all year round.

I could not bring myself to tell people there that we had an abundant source of geothermal energy, but that we do not move seriously to harness its potential. Had I told them, I think I might have been ostracized.

It’s why I am in favor of the Thirty Meter Telescope, geothermal production and Hilo’s E Malama ‘Aina Festival. As soon as I returned from that trip, I began to do things to transform our farm and to help all of us transition.

From the website:

It’s been a tumultuous year for the price of oil and the worldwide economy in general. While the signature issue of oil depletion has faded from the headlines, and demand dropped due to economic malaise, the bottom line remains unchanged: our world may be at, or very close to, peak oil production. What are the next steps for the industry and for peak oil advocates?

“Peak oil on a worldwide basis seems to have taken place in early 2008…reaching peak oil still represents a transformative moment in the history of the oil market…it is only a matter of time before prices begin to reflect the reality that oil scarcity may become a fact of life in the not-too-distant future.” – Raymond James investment report, 5/4/09    

Marshalling the expertise of key financial analysts, international oil industry executives, and peak oil observers, the 5th annual ASPO-USA 2009 International Peak Oil Conference presents three days of information-packed events plus a Saturday pre-event workshop designed to stimulate discussion amongst a wide audience of people in business, public policy, and anyone concerned with resource supply issues.

Kevin Phillips, conservative commentator and author of Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism, and American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century, will kick off an extended and continuing discussion of the economic consequences of constrained world oil supplies with his keynote address. ASPO will also feature an extensive roster of presenters, including economists and financial analysts, agricultural and water experts, editors and journalists, contributors to The Oil Drum, and advocates for peak oil mitigation strategies such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, and population control.

ASPO-USA invites your attendance and participation in our signature event!

Update: The Challenge

We’ve decided to change the focus of our “Five-Pound Challenge.” We are rephrasing it to be something about each of us getting to our ideal weight/body place. Leslie’s personal challenge is losing five pounds; Richard has decided that his is about his clothing size, belt size and blood pressure, not just total weight loss.

This change in focus becomes significant when you note that Richard has already lost 7 pounds. He’s the one who suggested we change how we think about this challenge, because he’s already lost the five pounds and he’s not done.

Richard Ha reports in:

I was on the verge of getting a larger size shirt. That went away. Same with my belt – I was at the last hole and struggling. That went away. Jimmy suggested that I rely on those types of measurements, more than my weight.

I’m doing a combination of light weight-lifting and walking for a 45-minute period. I exercise with a heart rate monitor and make sure I’m in the fat burning zone or more.

My resting heart rate is now in the 60s. When I started, it was in the 70s. My blood pressure went down and has stabilized; it was very erratic when I first started.

Leslie Lang reports in:

I still weigh exactly what I weighed when we started. I have maintained this impressively consistent weight by only working out on the elliptical trainer twice since the challenge began, while simultaneously not cutting back on food much at all.

Oh my, and it was me that issued the challenge in the first place. I am slightly horrified to have to admit my lack of effort and progress, and hope to have a much better report next time. Must. Pull. It. Together.

If you are following our weight loss challenge in search of inspiration, you might want to be paying more attention to Richard’s efforts. I too will look at Richard’s efforts for inspiration and motivation. Wow!

O‘ahu’s Rail System Costs, While Big Island’s TMT Pays

Yesterday’s Honolulu Advertiser headline story tells how O‘ahu’s planned elevated rail system will cost each resident of O‘ahu $4,000. Wow, and they’ll still have to pay every time they ride the rail!

In contrast, the Thirty Meter Telescope will benefit each person on the Big Island. After the TMT receives its permit, it will give $1 million a year for our community to administer for the education of our keiki. That’s a total of $58 million—and all that money stays here on the Big Island. The quality of this offering greatly overshadows Target and Safeway’s $77 million—where local businesses will suffer and profits will leave the Big Island.

In addition to giving $1 million a year, after “first light” the TMT will also give a combination of viewing time and cash.

This is how President David McClain described the commitment:

After discussions with academic and community leaders on the Big Island, and review with the Board of Regents, I can say that should TMT come to Mauna Kea, the Hawaiian community and community-at-large will benefit through an annual $1 million community benefit package, which will provide funding for locally chosen and managed educational programs on Hawai‘i Island. This will begin once all permits for the project have been received. 
The compensation to the University of Hawai‘i, which is expected to begin at “first light,” will be split equitably between a higher education package to be used for selected initiatives of the University of Hawai‘i at Hilo and Hawai‘i Community College on Hawai‘i Island, and observing time for University of Hawai‘i scientists. 

— David McClain
, President, 
University of Hawai‘i

This is the first time that the Big Island, through the University of Hawai‘i at Hilo and Hawai‘i Community College, will share in the benefits of a Mauna Kea-based telescope. It’s a very far cry from the $1 yearly leases telescopes have paid to date, which people have been so frustrated about.

I read President McClain’s statement to say that of the total TMT package, half will come to the Big Island. This is huge and could be another $5 million of value each year coming to the Big Island through UHH and HCC.

So just to compare — the TMT could be bringing $6 million of value annually to the Big Island, while O‘ahu’s new rail system will cost each resident $4,000, and they will still have to pay each time they ride it.

This accounting of the TMT’s benefits doesn’t even include how many local people will be employed in running the telescope, nor the business that will benefit from the TMT being here. Nor does it take into account the secondary benefit of strengthening our higher-level education systems.

Not to mention the psychological benefit to our people, as they take pride in hosting the biggest and best telescope in the world, one which reinforces the fact that Hawaiians were once the best navigators in the world. Our keiki and future generations will be looking up to the heavens and not down in the mud.

Everyone wants to do good for Mauna Kea; this is a given. There are lots and lots of volunteers. No one is advocating taking any short cuts. I would not support it if this were the case.

Finally, this is not about you and me — it’s about the keiki and future generations. I don’t know of any other instance where an entity is offering a community this much value for its children and future generations. Right now, we see the opposite: jobs being cut, businesses closing up shop and the most defenseless among us being left to fend for themselves.

So try, try explain again how this will be bad for our keiki and future generations?

Department of Ag Layoffs, & Priorities

It was standing room only at the Aupuni Center last night at a meeting held to discuss the announced Department of Agriculture layoffs.

The meeting was called by Senators Russell Kokubun and Dwight Takamine. In attendance were Mayor Billy Kenoi, Senator Gary Hooser, and Representatives Clift Tsuji, Bob Herkes, Faye Hanohano and Jerry Chang.

Many people talked about the effects on specific operations. For example, the cut in the pesticide branch will mean less timely inspections of violations, and less monitoring of the spread of the Varoa mites, which could be devastating to the honey bee industry. There will be less monitoring and eradication of the Banana Bunchy Top virus, which has the potential to devastate the Big Island banana industry. The papaya industry relies on state inspectors to vouch for the proper operation of quarantine measures, which is crucial for our papaya industry to survive and prosper.

The Plant Quarantine department works to prevent unwanted pests coming in on produce and other agricultural goods. It is anticipated that produce will not be inspected on a timely basis, and therefore unwanted pests will slip in.

Many folks testified about how the cutback will hurt the local agricultural community.

I testified from a global perspective on behalf of the state Farm Bureau, of which I am Treasurer. I said that the world has changed forever and it is not business as usual. I said that the world oil supply is depleting faster than we are able to find new sources of oil. The consequence will be higher and higher oil prices and shrinking discretionary income as we export our economy to buy oil. We are not going to back to the good old days of exponential growth. We need to be prepared for a new normal.

The Department of Agriculture supports the export of agriculture products, and it supports the production of locally grown produce. Its budget is only .03% of the State budget; just a tiny amount.

I asked if we should not consider reprioritizing. Exporting products counters the export of our economy to buy foreign oil. And there is nothing more important than eating.

We know that Food Security requires that farmers produce food. And if a farmer makes money, the farmer will farm.

Maku‘u Stories, Part 3: Uncle Sonny

My Uncle Sonny farmed at Maku‘u after some years in the Merchant Marines. His real name was Ulrich Kamahele (I have no idea where that name came from). He had a big personality.

One day, when I was walking with a couple of my buddies on Waianuenue Avenue near where Cronies is now, I heard someone call me. It was Uncle Sonny, and he was almost all the way up the block toward Kaikodo.

It’s hard to be rugged — even when you are in the 9th grade and smoking cigarettes — when your Uncle Sonny yells “Eh, Dicky Boy.”  I cringed and looked around to see if any girls had heard him. He must have been in his 30s then.

I caught up with him again after I graduated from the University of Hawai‘i and returned home to run Pop’s chicken farm. When we decided to start growing bananas, we got lots of our banana keiki from Uncle Sonny. The Paradise Park subdivision had been built and so one could drive all the way down to Maku‘u. So we saw him quite frequently.

Uncle Sonny did not have electricity, running water or a telephone, but he had a transistor radio and a 1-foot stack of U.S. News and World Reports. He always got the current copy from the Pahoa post office. Though he lived a very simple life, he’d traveled all over the world with the Merchant Marines and he knew a lot more than one would think. He could talk about a myriad of subjects. I found his stories fascinating.

I visited him often and learned a lot about farming from him. A visit to Maku‘u would take hours, with most of that time spent listening to Uncle Sonny. I learned to be a good listener. He always talked in a loud voice and he waved his arms a lot. My wife June and my sister Lei told me that they would stay arms’ length from Uncle Sonny, walking backwards or in a big circle around the yard. They were careful to stay out of range of his swinging arms, so they wouldn’t be all bruised at the end of the visit.

Everyone knew Uncle Sonny for growing the sweetest watermelons. People would come from miles around to get his watermelons. He did not have to go out to sell them; they would all sell by word-of-mouth.

We spent a lot of time talking about farming watermelons. He used a backpack poison pump. Once he showed me how he knew that the amount of sticker/spreader in the mixture was effective. Although the rate was supposed to be something like ½-teaspoon per gallon, he always double-checked the mixture by sticking a piece of California Grass into it. Due to the fine hair on the grass, water normally runs off California grass, taking the herbicide with it. If the water spread on the leaf instead of running off it, the mixture was right.

What I learned

The message I learned: Use the book for the first approximation, and then confirm things on the ground. The word “grounded” does come to mind.

He told me that melon flies, an enemy of watermelon, rest under a leaf at the height of the midday sun. That was why he planted a few corn plants on the outside border of his watermelon patch. Sure enough, they were there. He was in tune with the behavior of the fruit fly. He would pull out his can of Raid and give them a short burst.

The standard solution would have been to spray the whole field. Uncle Sonny’s way was much more effective and very much cheaper.

Here’s how Uncle Sonny knew his watermelons were ready: When they reached the size of golf balls, he put a wooden stake with the date on it. Then he harvested the melons after a certain number of days went by.

It was so simple and so effective. It’s what led us to place a different colored ribbon on every banana bunch we bagged in a particular week. We harvested the bananas based on elapsed time—pretty much like Uncle Sonny did.

I learned from Uncle Sonny to use the “book” for general instructions. But not to rely on it exclusively.

Uncle Sonny broke things down to their essential components. He made his life simple, and yet he was very effective. I admired him very much.

Next: 
Maku‘u Stories, Part 4: Tutu Meleana & The Puhi

See also:
Maku‘u Stories, Part 1: My Kamahele Family in Maku’u
Maku‘u Stories, Part 2: Cousin Frank Kamahele

Will You Adopt-A-Class?

RImagine, it’s already our third year doing our Adopt-A-Class program for Keaukaha Elementary School!

Here is an overview of why we started the program, and how far we’ve already come since then. In a nutshell, we started doing this in Spring 2007, when we realized that the students at Keaukaha Elementary School only took walking field trips, visiting places near their school, because there was no money for anything else.

For two years now we have sent all Keaukaha Elementary School students, the kindergarteners through the 6th graders, on one excursion each semester. Some of them visit ‘Imiloa Astronomy Center, where they learn both about the science of astronomy atop Mauna Kea and also about their Hawaiian ancestors as powerful and successful navigators and explorers.

It costs about $600 for the bus and entry fees to ‘Imiloa, so that’s our target price per class per semester. If you look at our Adopt-A-Class website, you’ll see that one can donate $600 to adopt one class, or contribute toward the adoption of a class by giving $300 or $100.

There are no administrative costs taken out of your tax-deductible donation. Every penny goes to the class for its excursions.

From the Adopt-A-Class page on our website:

Here’s how it works. Choose an open “slot” on our chart that corresponds to the grade level and semester you will sponsor. Download the commitment form (pdf), fill out your information, and fax it to Richard Ha at 981-0756 or mail it to Hamakua Springs, 421 Lama St., Hilo HI 96720.  Please make your check payable to the Keaukaha School Foundation.

There are so many places to donate money, but this is a very worthwhile and specific one where you know EXACTLY where your money is going, and who it’s helping. We thank you for helping us help our community.

So we’re working on collecting donations for the fall and spring semesters coming up, and need some more help to make sure all students get to take mind-broadening excursions. If you can help, please click here. And thank you.

Maku‘u Stories, Part 2: Cousin Frank Kamahele

It was because he stayed at Maku‘u when he was a small kid that my Pop’s cousin Frank Kamahele became a jet pilot and also the manager of the Hilo and Kona airports.

About a mile down the coast from Tutu’s house in Maku‘u, toward Hawaiian Beaches, was an island called Moku ‘Opihi. During World War II, Hell Fire and other planes flew from Hilo and used that island for target practice.

The pilots knew there was a small kid at the house who jumped up and down waving at the planes. Some would fly low and turn sideways, then smile and wave at the small kid. Others would wiggle their wings and buzz the house.

The small kid knew that he would become a pilot one day. He did not know how; just that he would.

Later, when that kid Frank Kamahele was at Pahoa High School, a new teacher came from Texas and became the basketball coach. Frank loved basketball, and the new coach helped him to go to the University of Hawai‘i on a scholarship to play basketball. It so happened that the University of Hawai‘i had an Air Force ROTC program, which Frank joined.

Upon graduating, Frank applied to go to flight school. They told him to go home and wait for an opening, and one came a few months later. Next thing he knew, he was in Arizona at flight school.

‘Luckiest person in the world’

Frank told me recently that he feels like the luckiest person in the world. He came from a very poor family, and no one in the family had gone to college. If it hadn’t been for the planes flying overhead and a kind, dedicated teacher from Texas, he might have had a career as a “cut cane man.” He was pretty good at that and earned $200 a month for contract cane cutting. At that time, it was a lot of money.

Frank was a cool-headed person. He told me about the worse thing that happened to him during his flying career. It happened at Honolulu International Airport once when he was taking off: when he was around 150 feet in the air, an engine fell off. He was piloting a KC135 refueling tanker –- a flying bomb the size of a Boeing 707.

He said the Control Tower called and asked: “Do you realize you lost engine number four?”

“Roger,” Frank replied.

“I repeat – do you realize that you lost engine number four?”

“Roger.” That was the extent of his conversation with the Tower. In the meantime, Frank shut off the engine, the fuel, etc. He did not want a fire to start.

It happened that he was on his routine annual check ride, so an Air Force inspector was along for the ride and sitting in the jump seat. Except for the engine falling off, everything was going well. The plane flew on three engines, no problem.

Back on the horse

Once they stabilized at altitude, Frank requested permission to land and get another plane to finish his mission. He knew things were going smoothly and that he needed to get his crew back up in the air again to keep up everyone’s confidence. When they landed uneventfully, he asked the flight inspector if he wanted to go back up with them.

The inspector told him: “I’m sure you all will do just fine.” He could not wait to get off that plane and on the ground.

After his career in the Air Force, Frank returned to the Big Island and flew a 6-passenger tourist tour plane. He told me he could not keep on doing that because it was too boring and uneventful.

So he went to O‘ahu to work at the airport as an administrator, and the Hilo/Kona airports manager job came up.  He flew back to Hilo and applied for the job, which he kept for 17 years.

This is an example of how you just never know what has an influence on a young kid and might change his or her entire life for the better. It convinces me that the $1 million annual TMT contribution toward the Big Island’s K-12 education will be so valuable to our children.

Next: 
Maku‘u Stories, Part 3: Uncle Sonny

See also:
Maku‘u Stories, Part 1: My Kamahele Family in Maku’u

The Five Pound Challenge, Week 1

It’s one week into our Five Pound Challenge and we’re reporting in.

Richard:

I lost 1.5 pounds this past week.

I’m bringing myself to the point where I can do a combination of weight lifting and walking for 45 minutes everyday. Jimmy told me to work out in the mornings if possible. He said that your body is in a fat-burning mode when you first get up and you want to keep this going into the day as long as possible. He suggested I work another 40 minutes of activity into my day. I pretty much get that by working around the greenhouses. Lately, I’ve been looking at my bicycle.

Leslie:

I lost 1 pound this week.

This week wasn’t a typical one for me — I spent the week in Honolulu, out of my normal routine. I haven’t even gotten around to dusting off the elliptical trainer yet, though, as Richard said about his bike, I’ve been looking at it. I think I lost that pound by running around more than usual and not snacking as much. Gotta add exercising to the mix and see what happens.

Peak Oil Anxiety

Prior to this past year, the International Energy Association (IEA), which represents the developed countries outside of OPEC, took a very conservative approach to reporting on the world oil supply situation.

A few months ago, it finally woke up. Now Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, is saying that all is not fine. Although he is trying to stay cool, I can feel the anxiety in his speeches. He is talking about “10 years to Peak Oil.”

Many, many observers think we have already passed Peak Oil, including me.

This article, Proof Positive Peak Oil Is Here, talks about the factors at work.

by Bill Powers,
 Editor, Powers Energy Investor, 
July 31, 2009

Peak oil would be irrelevant if not for our continued and extreme thirst for it. Dr. Colin Campbell, petroleum geologist, is credited with quantifying that we find one barrel of oil for every four we consume and that the discovery of new oil reserves peaked in the 1960’s (The World Oil Supply). Published in 1995, Dr. Campbell’s work could not have anticipated the expanding consumption required to catapult the economies in developing China or India. Nor did it contemplate our current worldwide economic slowdown.

What Dr. Campbell’s work does shed light on is this: we are on an oil usage treadmill that is unsustainable. In 2008, while the world did consume .6% less oil than it did in 2007, it consumed 21% more than it did in 1995 when Dr. Campbell’s research was released (Source: BP.com historical statistic review from governmental and public sources). In light of this information, the importance of peaking worldwide oil production is difficult to overstate. Despite all the rhetoric with respect to alternative energy sources, oil literally makes the world go around and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future…. (Read the whole article here)

Yesterday the UK newspaper the Independent published an article titled Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast.   It is based on an interview with Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Association.

Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world’s top energy economist
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Monday, 3 August 2009

“One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day,” Dr Birol said. “The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously,” he said.

“The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future,” he said.

There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields…. (Read the whole article here)

We need to move determinedly toward geothermal energy here on the Big Island. We cannot be talking about 10 years from now. World oil supplies soon will not keep up with demand, so we need to move and move fast. This is not business as usual!