Government, Peak Oil

Did Middle Class Decline Because Of Peak Oil?

The business section of yesterday’s Honolulu Advertiser had an article called TARP panel’s chief could lead new consumer agency.

It’s about Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard University law professor who is head of the Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

I once wrote here about Warren’s speech “The coming collapse of the middle class.” (That video of her speech is very interesting and well worth watching. She is one of my heroes).

When I first heard it, I thought: How coincidental that the U.S. hit its peak oil production in 1970, the same time period she used as an example of when the American middle class was strong. In 1970, the Energy Return on Investment was 30 barrels return from one barrel of energy used to obtain it. Today that ratio is 10 to 1 or so.

Could the decline in our middle class be related to our decrease in net energy? Could it be that technology is not beating the decline in net energy? And we have to make up for it by working twice as hard? Just asking.

Some of Elizabeth Warren’s points, from our previous post:

In the 1970s, a married couple with two kids had one parent in the workforce and saved 11 percent of their income. To get into the middle class, their kids needed to get a high school diploma and to be willing to work hard. That 12 years of education that their children needed, to get into the middle class, was free.

Warren says that the most important thing that happened in the first two-thirds of the 20th century was that women entered the work force.

In the 2000’s, a similar married couple with two kids must have two people in the work force – because, she says using numbers adjusted for inflation, median mortgage payments in 2005 are 76 percent higher than they were in 1970. Health insurance – in a healthy family with employee-sponsored health insurance – costs the family 74 percent more. Childcare costs have increased 100 percent, and as compared to the 1970s family a 2000s family has the expense of a second car because of that second person in the workforce, and because of that second income their tax rate is up by 25 percent.

In comparable dollars, the 2005 family is actually spending much less on clothes, food, appliances and cars than the 1970s family did; it’s the non-flexible, big ticket and important expenses that have increased so dramatically and that require that second income.

So a comparable married couple with two kids in 2005 has no savings (compared to the 1970s couple, who saved 11 percent of their earnings), and 15 percent of their income is in credit card debt as they try to keep up.

To launch their kids into the middle class requires 16 years of schooling, and the 2005 family has to pay  for the first two years (preschool) and the last four years (college) themselves.

Community

Brudda Skibs

Do you remember when we wrote about Brudda Skibs awhile back? Here’s an article from Big Island Weekly about what he’s up to lately.

Saturday, Nov. 21 marked another monumental year for the Honoli’i Paka as they celebrated with their annual surfing classic and keiki fun day.

This is their sixth year in the running and the park hasn’t looked better. Projects are ongoing throughout the year for the parks beautification, but this day was a special day to embrace what has been done and to give back to the community yet again. It was a day of fun, food, prizes, Hawaiian games and lots and lots of surfing.

Best of all, it was free and for the whole family. It was a community effort to make this happen.

“What is so special about this event is that people came together and never gave up,” said as Uncle Skibbs, organizer of the Honoli’i Paka. “We cleaned the park and now we have families and kids here enjoying it regularly.”(read more)

Richard says, “This is what true aloha is all about. He shows us that we are one island; one people. It’s not money that makes us rich.

“I’m proud to say that he and I are cousins on the Kamahele side.”

Biofuel, Geothermal, Renewable Energy Sources

Geothermal Is Our Best Choice

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Back on November 16, I attended a workshop to review work plans being considered by the Hawai‘i Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Task Force to recommend to the legislature at year’s end.

I was struck by the fact that geothermal was not chosen as an alternative. Geothermal has no greenhouse gas emissions, and it results in lower electricity rates.

Why was it not included?

The utilities plan to transition to biofuels instead of continuing to use fossil fuels, but consider this: Biofuels involve farming. At today’s prices, a farmer would get 6 cents per pound for growing jatropha or palm oil. They obviously would not do it for that price. When oil is at $200 per barrel, they would get 18 cents per pound. Still not enough. I believe farmers might become interested when biofuel feed stock pays 24 cents per pound, which is the equivalent cost of $270 per barrel oil.

So we can probably assume that we would not see very much local biofuel farming in the near future. Instead, the biodiesel would probably come from Indonesia. It would be certified as eco-friendly by a third-party, green organization. Whether or not the oil is brown or green, though, the bottom line is that it will be costly.

The legislation requires that adverse effects on small businesses be considered. It is fair to say that fossil fuel costs will rise and, therefore, electricity rates will rise too. When oil hit $147 last summer, it was disastrous for small business folks.

On the other hand, the estimated break-even price of geothermal is approximately $57 per barrel and it will stay stable for as long as we can see.

Why is geothermal not being considered?

I submitted the following comments:

My name is Richard Ha. I am testifying on behalf of myself and the 60-plus employees who work with us at Hamakua Springs Country Farms at Pepeekeo, here on the Big Island.

Why is geothermal energy not considered?

  1. Geothermal energy does not give off any greenhouse gas emissions.
  2. Geothermal energy has an Energy Return on Investment (EROI) ratio of 10 to 1—and, unlike fossil fuels and bio fuels, the EROI will not decline in the future.
  3. Geothermal breaks even at an oil price equivalent of $57 per barrel.
  4. It is available in abundance on the Big Island.
  5. Unlike 20 years ago, there is only a handful of opponents.
  6. Unlike the other two alternatives for base power—fossil fuel and biofuel—geothermal is much cheaper.
  7. There will be a huge benefit to small businesses if geothermal is sourced right here on the Big Island. It will give the Big Island a competitive advantage to the mainland at some future time.
  8. The EROI for geothermal is 10 to 1 and will never decrease; unlike oil, which was at 100 to 1 in the 1930s. It is in the 10-15 to 1 range today. It will steadily decline — that is not in dispute. How soon will it hit 3 to 1 is the issue.
  9. Since geothermal is base power, we can potentially source up to 80% of HELCO’s power from this source. On the other hand, wind and solar can be depended upon for only 20% or so.
  10. Because geothermal is the cheapest source of base power, it will have the biggest positive effect on discretionary income for lower income folks.
  11. Choosing the high cost alternative for base power will send a message that the utility does not care about the situation of the lower income folks. And, the native Hawaiian community.

EROI is calculated in energy units, not dollars. It gives one a sense of direction and causes us to  question solutions that have low or declining EROIs. For example, shouldn’t we question biofuels as a solution when the EROI is less than 2 to 1?

I recommend that EROI should be included in all energy studies. It is a fundamental shortcoming of this study.

In the 1930s, we got 100 barrels of oil from the energy in one barrel of oil. In the 1970s, we got 30 barrels from one barrel. Now, we get 10 barrels from the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil.  This is understandable, and it will continue to go down as oil becomes more and more difficult to access. At some point before the last drop of oil is sucked from the ground, the EROI will be 1 to 1 and there will be no point in going further.

Charles Hall authored a paper: What is the minimum EROI that a sustainable society must have?  In it, he says that the EROI ratio must be no less than 3 to 1 in order to maintain a sustainable society.

Fossil fuel oil EROI is approximately 10 to 1 and dropping steadily, while geothermal is 10 to 1 and will not decline further. Bio fuels have an EROI of less than 2 to 1. Clearly, geothermal is the best choice.  

Aloha,
Richard Ha

Community, Food Security, Geothermal, Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources, Schools, Sustainability

Surviving Without Sacrificing Values

A couple years ago I gave a speech to the graduating class of the Hawai‘i Community College. I talked about survival. I told them stories that my Pop told me when I was a small kid. And how they could make short-term decisions without sacrificing their long-term core values. It was very well received and it was good fun.

That was in May, 2007. That October, I went to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference in Houston. There I learned that world oil supplies are depleting faster than new discoveries are coming online. And that there are fewer giant oil fields being discovered, and that the world’s population was increasing at the rate of 70 million new people a year.

This was important information and, although not complete, it was enough to make me start to position our farm for five and 10 years in the future. If we were wrong? No harm, no foul. If we were right, we would be survivors.

After that conference, I could think of three things that would help the Big Island move in that direction, too.

The first was to let people know they were not alone. The E Malama ‘Aina sustainability Festival would help do that.

The second thing was to help get the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) sited on Mauna Kea. This would help to lift up and educate our keiki and future generations. And, it would provide a safe, steady income and stabilize our economy.

The third was to get as much geothermal energy as possible into HELCO as base power. It is the cheapest source of renewable energy and the discretionary income saved would benefit the low income folks, since they were the ones who would get their lights turned off first. It would also benefit the island’s small businesses, because their customers would have money to spend. That is what I mean when I go around saying: “If the most defenseless among us are safe, we are all safe.”

All of these things could be done without sacrificing our core values. We just need to do the right things, local style. We need to take our time and go talk story. If the folks believe that we have their and their keikis’ well-being foremost in our minds, then we can all go do this together.  It’s not rocket science!

By the way, I went to the ASPO conference again last month in Denver – yet again, the only person from Hawai‘i to attend. After that conference, I am more convinced than ever that we are moving in the right direction.

It’s the same as what I told the graduating HCC students – about survival, and about making short-term decisions without sacrificing our long-term, core values.

Mauna Kea

China Joins the Thirty Meter Telescope Project

Last evening, Baron Sekiya posted this announcement on his blog.

The National Astronomical Observatories of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) has joined the Thirty Meter Telescope Project.
As an observer, China will participate in planning the development of what will be the world’s most advanced and capable astronomical observatory.

“The TMT is delighted to take this exciting new step forward in our relationship with the National Astronomical Observatories of China,” said Henry Yang, chairman of the TMT board and Chancellor of the University of California, Santa Barbara. “We appreciate their interest in contributing to this important international endeavor, and we look forward to continuing to work with the Chinese astronomical community in fostering China’s collaboration in the TMT project.”

NAOC officials also hailed the development.

“We believe that the Thirty Meter Telescope will provide an otherwise unattainable opportunity for the Chinese astronomical community to make significant discoveries, perform cutting-edge science, and advance technological development,” said Jun Yan, director of the NAOC. “We believe our joint effort will foster a successful collaboration on this world-class project, and we hope to build high-technology, core components of the telescope.”

Several weeks ago, Ka‘iu Kimura, the new director of ‘Imiloa Astronomy Center, told us about her wish to build a center that would be suitable for accommodating international scientific conferences. Although I understood her words, I did not fully understand what she was saying until I saw this new announcement.

During that same conversation, master navigator Kalepa Babayan told us of attending international conferences at Athens and Hamberg as a representative of ‘Imiloa. ‘Imiloa participated because of its uniqueness as a center of world astronomy that includes the native Hawaiian culture in association with its astronomy. Sitting in Kuhio Grill with Ka‘iu Kimura, Kalepa Babayan, Clyde Hayashi, Wally Ishibashi and Pete Lindsey, we were all amazed at the international reputation of ‘Imiloa. I asked, “You mean the Athens? Not Athens, Georgia?” Kalepa said matter of factly—yes, Athens, Greece.

China’s entering into the TMT project as a partner is one more indication of the importance, the specialness, of Mauna Kea, Hawai‘i and the Hawaiian people.

Eating Locally, Food Security, Schools

Punahou Students Get Involved in Food Security

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Richard just got an email from an 8th grader at Punahou School on O‘ahu. He told me, “Isn’t this wonderful? Intelligent questions. She is asking what their class can do. The kids are trying to save us!”

Her email started like this:

Dear Richard Ha,

My name is L.T. [name removed]. I’m a 14 year old. I’m a 8th grade Punahou School student. Wanda Adams from the Honolulu Advertiser, recommended you to me to answer some questions on a project my class is doing. The project is called project citizen, we choose a problem in our community, research the problem, and then as a class act on the problem. The problem my class chose is that many local farms are struggling because Hawaii is too dependent on imports from the mainland and around the world. Wanda Adams told me that you know a lot about this topic. I have some questions for you about this it if you won’t mind answering….

Richard responded with this:

Aloha L.:

Thanks for your note. As a farmer, I am very encouraged that our young people are aware of the fact that many farmers are struggling, and that you are willing to do something to help. Thank you!

And here is the question and answer part:

Do you have any new information on this problem?

Yes, supermarket produce sales are declining. People have less discretionary income. And they are frequently choosing the cheapest produce they can find. And lots of the time it comes from foreign countries.

How serious is this problem in our community?

Very.

How widespread is the problem in our state or nation?

It is very widespread.

Why is this a problem that should be handled by government?

I don’t know that this is a problem for government to solve.

Should anyone else take responsibilty for solving the problem? Why?

I think it is consumers who can solve the problem. Retailers are very sensitive to their customers wants and needs.

Which of the following do you think is true?

There is no law or policy for dealing with the problem. True
The law for dealing with the problem is not adequate.
The law for dealing with the problem is adequate, but it is not adequate.

What levels of government or government agencies, if any, are responsible for dealing with the problem? What are they doing about the problem?

What are the disagreements about this policy or ways of dealing with it exist in our community?

If consumers would express their support for locally grown food and back it up with action, the retailers would stock more locally grown produce.

Who are the major individuals, groups, or organizations expressing opinions on the problem?

The Hawaii Farm Bureau, Slow Food Hawaii, local chefs, Kanu Hawaii, and there are others. I think that retailers would react positively if they knew that people cared about this subject.

Why are they interested in the problem?

They all realize that food security starts with farmers. And if farmers make money, farmers will farm.

What positions are they taking?

They are all supporting locally grown food. Retailers, however, respond to the wishes of their customers.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of their position?

There are advantages such as keeping money circulating in our economy, protecting ourselves in case of shipping interruptions—it really has to do with survival. We are vulnerable out here in the middle of the ocean. So we should encourage food production from Hawaii. It is wise of us to prepare for the worse and hope for the best.

How can we get information on their positions?

Let me know if you and your friends are interested and I will give you contact information.

How are they trying to influence government to adopt their positions on the problem?

If enough people express their opinions, the politicians and the government will respond.

If my class develops a policy to deal with this problem, how might we influence our government to adopt our policy?

If you can organize a ground swell of support, and are willing to put some time into the effort, you can change Hawaii.

Speaking for farmers: We thank you for asking. We’ve been trying to call attention to this problem. But farmers need to spend their time farming. I think that you might get more results than we can. Beyond this, we are very encouraged that you have this on your radar. And, as representatives of your generation, we are very hopeful for the future of Hawaii.

Mahalo, Richard

Renewable Energy Sources

Kauai & Renewable Energy

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The Kauai Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC) folks are very concerned about the prospect of rising oil prices in the future, and I agree with them. Better to be safe than sorry. Because they feel so vulnerable to rising oil prices, the KIUC is much more focused than most about world oil supply issues. We all should have that sense of urgency.

Oil uncertainty pushes KIUC to find alternatives

By Paul Curtis – The Garden Island
Published: Tuesday, November 3, 2009 3:11 AM HST

LIHU‘E — Oil prices topped $80 a barrel last month despite lower demand and a bad economy, leading Kaua‘i Island Utility Cooperative Chief Financial Officer David Bissell to think that speculation is to blame.



“The sky is almost the limit as far as petroleum is concerned,” Bissell said last week at the monthly KIUC Board of Directors meeting at KIUC headquarters in Lihu‘e.


The uncertainty of oil prices makes it that much more important for KIUC leaders to push forward aggressively with plans for alternative forms of energy, he said, to “try to mitigate our exposure.” (Read more here)

Recently, 500 geologists attended a conference in London, where they voted 2 to 1 that Peak Oil is a concern. This is quite different from the opinions of some of their employers. At the Peak Oil conference I attended in Denver last month, the most prevalent view was that the world will start to slip down the other side of the supply curve in four to five years.

I think that it should be expected that many folks on the other side will be tying themselves into pretzels in order to explain how rising prices are due to declining demand and not declining supplies.

I say, “Better to be safe than sorry.”

Go geothermal.

Health, Schools

New School Lunch Guidelines, & Fruits/Vegetables

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This article is from the October 20th issue of the national produce newspaper The Packer.

Schools told to add produce despite the cost

By Tom Karst
National Editor

School meals should include more fruits and vegetables in addition to a new set of nutrition targets and standards for menu planning, according to a new report from the Institute of Medicine.

Called “School meals: building blocks for healthy children,” the report recommends bringing school meals in line with the latest Dietary Guidelines, according to a news release from the National Academy of Sciences. The report’s findings were announced at a news conference Oct. 20 in Washington, D.C.

The IOM recommends limits on sodium in school meals, establishing a maximum number of calories and encouraging
children to eat more fruits, vegetables and whole grains, the news
release said.

The amount of fruit offered in breakfasts should increase to one cup per day for all grades and in lunches should increase to one cup per day for students in grades nine through twelve, and the report said that no more than half of the fruit schools provide should be in the form of juice.

The IOM said the amount of vegetables offered should increase to three-quarters of a cup per day for kindergarten through eighth grade and one cup per day for grades    nine through twelve.

“Schools should offer starchy vegetables such as potatoes less often and provide at least one half cup each of green leafy vegetables, orange vegetables and legumes per week,” the report said.

Lorelei DiSogra, vice president of nutrition for the United Fresh Produce Association, Washington D.C., said Oct. 19 that United Fresh and other advocates hope the U.S. Department of
Agriculture will begin formal rulemaking on adopting the Institute’s recommendations by next fall and have a formal plan in place in about two years.

“This should really start the clock ticking on USDA issuing a proposed rule,” DiSogra said.
 
The nutrition standards for school lunches haven’t been updated in 14 years, but the USDA has not been successful in beginning rulemaking on the issue, DiSogra said. Similar to when changes were made to the Women, Infant and Children food packages to reflect the 2005 Dietary Guidelines, the USDA asked the institute to make the politically sensitive recommendations.

“The time is long overdue to bring (school meals) in compliance with the guidelines,” DiSogra said. Read the rest here.

This is good news for both the students and our local farmers.

Here are some comparisons between the current and the new recommendations:

Fruits and Vegetables

Current: ½ to 1 cup of fruits and vegetables combined.

New recommendation: ½ to 1 cup of vegetables plus ½ to 1 cup of fruit.

Vegetables

Current: No specifications as to type of vegetables.

New recommendations: Weekly requirements for dark green and orange vegetables, and limits on starchy vegetables.

Alan Wong, Television

Chefs A’ Field

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RThe national PBS episode “Chefs A’ Field,” which Chef Alan Wong did with Keaukaha School, will air on Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 5 p.m. It will also run on Saturday, November 21 at 6:30 p.m. and on Monday, November 30 at 9:30 p.m.

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Chef Alan is just great with the 6th graders. I didn’t realize how animated the students were until I watched the trailer. I can’t wait to see the whole thing myself.

Community, Hawaiian Role Models, Mauna Kea

Ka‘iu Kimura Appointed Interim Executive Director at ‘Imiloa

My dear friend, Ka‘iu Kimura, was just appointed interim Executive Director of HIlo’s ‘Imiloa Astronomy Center. She is representative of the next generation of Hawaiian leaders. I cannot be more proud of her.

A couple of weeks ago, Ka‘iu Kimura, Kalepa Babayan, Wallace Ishibashi, Clyde Hayashi, Pete Lindsey and myself met for lunch at Kuhio Grill. Ka‘iu talked generally about how things are changing. She said that ‘Imiloa was getting more and more international attention for its unique role of combining astronomy and the Hawaiian culture.

She told us her view of what is going on now and how much international attention they are getting. She said, Imagine what will happen if the Thirty Meter Telescope is built on Mauna Kea. She said, “I dream of a conference center being built to accommodate international conferees.”  I was amazed at how many things were going on. But at the same time, I could see what she was talking about. When the Thirty Meter Telescope is built here on the Big Island, we are going to get increasingly more international visitors and it would be nice to be able to welcome the guests in the proper way.

I could see exactly what Ka’iu was saying. And I agree, and support her 1000 percent.

Kimura to head ‘Imiloa

University of Hawai`i at Hilo Chancellor Rose Tseng today announced the appointment of Ka`iu Kimura as interim executive director of the ‘Imiloa Astronomy Center of Hawai`i.   Kimura replaces Peter Giles, who served as ‘Imiloa’s executive director since 2005. 
 
Kimura joined ‘Imiloa as the Hawaiian content research specialist during its planning phase in 2001 and later served as the Center’s experience coordinator.   She most recently held the position of associate director with the additional responsibility for all visitor experiences as well as planetarium, educational, exhibit, cultural and cultural landscape programming.
          
“Ka`iu brings a wealth of experience to this position, combined with energy and drive,” Tseng said.  “She also embraces `Imiloa’s mission to integrate science and culture, which will enable her to build on the Center’s accomplishments and take it to the next level.”
          
Kimura was raised in Waimea and graduated from Kamehameha Schools Kapalama Campus.   She returned to the Big Island to attend UH Hilo where she earned a bachelor’s degree in Hawaiian studies.  Kimura says she is humbled and excited about the opportunity to head ‘Imiloa.
                                              
“I’ve watched and participated as the Center has evolved from its development, through its opening and beyond to its operational phase,” Kimura explained.   “And I’m constantly amazed at how ‘Imiloa pursues its greater mission to inspire and provide greater opportunities for our youth and the community-at-large in the area of scientific innovation through a living and dynamic world view of our Hawaiian culture.”
          
Kimura said she wants to see ‘Imiloa develop more creative educational programming to engage Hawai`i’s youth and inspire them to become the next generation of innovation leaders.   She also plans to continue developing ‘Imiloa as a place for meaningful dialogue to promote scientific advancement and innovation.