Play The Position On The Chess Board In Front Of You – Not The One You Wish You Had

This is from the Energy Bulletin:

Deepwater Horizon and the Addiction to Growth
by Dan Bednarz

“The Gulf of Mexico oil blowout carries the emotional wallop and learning potential of a near-death experience. First, it certifies that the age of cheap and plentiful oil is over. Second, it reveals that our collective faith in technology to overcome any challenge posed by nature is a dangerous delusion. Third, it may be the event that sets our nation on the path to genuine economic and ecological sustainability.

“To understand why the age of cheap and plentiful oil is over we must ask why BP was drilling for oil in a foreboding environment. The answer has two parts: 1) the giant deposits of easy to reach oil on land have been exploited, so it’s drill in harsh environments or nothing; and 2) despite claims by proponents of various petroleum alternatives and renewables, we have no viable, ready to go scalable substitutes for oil.”

For a couple of years in the late 1970s, I played chess every Saturday night with Willard Keim. He was a UH-Hilo Political Science professor and the Big Island Chess Champion. We played with chess clocks and we wrote each game down. During the course of the evening, we normally had time for two games, which frequently concluded after 1 a.m.

I did not win many games. But I learned one important lesson from Will – to ”play the position in front of you; not the position you wish you had.” After a while, I knew that when I lost it was because he was the better player, not because I had lost my sense of reality.

And so today, when I evaluate our energy situation, I try to make sure I am evaluating the situation as it is, not how I wish it were. This is why I say that “Wishing and hoping is not an energy plan.”

We on the Big Island are so fortunate to have the gift of geothermal, which will allow future generations to not only cope but prosper.

For the sake of future generations, can we be smart enough, determined enough and tough enough to keep this once-in-a-civilization opportunity from slipping though our fingers?

And can we bring all our people together? We do not have the luxury of time. And we must not focus on this part of the island or that part of the island; or this culture or that.

We are one island and one people and we must work to take care of all of us.

First Geothermal Working Group Meeting

Wally Ishibashi and I are co-chairs of the newly formed Geothermal Working Group, which met for the first time on Wednesday. Here is some video of the meeting.

The group was formed by a resolution introduced by Senator Russell Kokubun and will be exploring the possibility of using geothermal as the Big Island’s primary base power source. Mayor Kenoi has put the full power of his office behind this effort.

Wally and I are both aware that the world has changed forever and that the days of cheap oil are gone forever.  We both are very concerned about the effects of rising electricity costs on the “rubbah slippah” folks. So we concentrate on how to make it cheaper.

The Geothermal Working Group consists of Carlito Caliboso, Chair of the Public Utility Commission; Patrick Kahawaiola’a, President of the Keaukaha Community Association—cultural representative; Ted Peck, the State Energy Administrator in DBED; Jay Ignacio, President of HELCO;  Nelson Ho, President of the Moku Loa group of the Sierra Club; Robert Lindsey, Hawaii Island OHA trustee; Jacqui Hoover, executive Director HLPC-West Side Representative; Barry Mizuno, HIEDB; Wally Ishibashi, Big Island Labor Alliance, co-chair; Richard Ha, Hamakua Springs, co-chair.

This is a group of people who can get things done. And because this is so important, we will get things done.

The world is changing and it’s no longer business as usual. It’s hard to say all this without sounding like an alarmist, and I don’t want to do that. But this is pretty serious and we don’t have the luxury to philosophize about it. There’s no time.

Here are articles from the Hilo and Kona papers today about Wednesday’s meeting:

http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/articles/2010/06/03/local_news/local02.txt
http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/articles/2010/06/03/local/local03.txt

And these are the introductory comments I made at Wednesday’s inaugural meeting of the Geothermal Working Group:

Aloha everyone for taking the time to help us analyze the possibility of using geothermal for the primary base power for the Big Island. Thanks to the Big Island Labor Alliance and its geothermal committee and Senator Kokubun who introduced resolution SCR99 in the legislature. And to Mayor Kenoi and the County of Hawaii for their strong support for the working group efforts.

We are here today at the first meeting of the working group and we are charged with providing an interim report 20 days before the start of the 2011 legislative session. We do not have much time to do our work.

The winds of change are blowing across the world. The end of cheap oil is upon us and it will change our lives forever. The less fortunate among us are especially vulnerable. Unlike most people in the world, however, we have an opportunity to adapt and cope effectively. If we are wise, we will find ways to use this gift of geothermal energy to help us cope.

I was the only person from Hawaii to attend the Peak Oil conference in Houston in 2007 and again this past October in Denver. Peak Oil is not about running out of oil. We won’t ever run out of oil. We are running out of cheap oil—the oil we can afford to burn.

The first thing I learned at the conferences was the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Organisms, societies and civilizations operate on the idea of excess energy. It takes excess energy for a species to survive. Take the cheetah — it needs to run down, catch and eat the antelope to get enough energy to feed the kids, miss a couple more, feed the kids and still have the energy to catch another. It takes excess energy for a species to survive and prosper. Without excess energy, the species goes extinct. So it is with societies and civilizations.

In the 1930s, the energy in one barrel of oil got us a hundred more barrels; in the 1970s, one barrel got us 30. Now, because it is more difficult to find, one barrel gets us 10.  This trend is not good. At some point, we will come to the point of negative EROI.

It is estimated that it takes a minimum EROI of 3 to 1 to maintain the petroleum infrastructure. Then there will be oil left in the ground, but it will just take more energy than we get out of it. So we just have to leave it.  It is noteworthy that the EROI of biofuels is less than 2 to 1.

While the EROI of oil is 10 to 1 and steadily declining until no sense dig anymore, the EROI of geothermal is approximately 10 to 1 — and it will stay steady for centuries. According to HELCO’s website, geothermal energy costs approximately 11 cents per KWH. It is, by far, the cheapest form of base power. Geothermal energy is proven technology; it is cheap and it is a gift for us to use wisely.

The other important thing I took away from the Peak Oil conference was the status of world oil supplies. Oil fields age naturally, and when accumulated we find that the world oil fields are declining annually at the rate of 4 million barrels per day. There are about 6 million barrels per day of excess capacity. This means that just due to old age—4 million barrels per day—we will go through the excess capacity in less than a year and a half. After that, we must live on what we find. And we have not found giant oil fields since 1970.

To put things in perspective, Saudi Arabia produces a little more than 10 million barrels per day. To make up for the 4 million shortfall due to aging oil fields, we need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia every two and a half years.

Can we do that? Most studies that I see don’t think so. Most likely, we will be able to make up half of the decline rate of the aging oil fields. So after we go through the reserves in a year and a half or less, we will then be short of what we are using today. That is why we know that we are coming to the end of the era of cheap oil.

But we on the Big Island have the gift of geothermal. It is cheap, it works and it can even be used for transportation. Soon, the Big Island will have some buses running on hydrogen.

And if we store it in the propane infrastructure, we can have a strategic reserve. Geothermal is the gift that we can give to future generations.
Although we are approaching the end of the era of cheap oil, things are very hopeful here on the Big Island. Although there are thousand reasons why no can, the question is will we be wise enough to find the one reason why, ‘CAN!’? That’s why we all are here.

Thanks for agreeing to do this important work.

Hydrogen Buses on the Big Island?

We may soon see hydrogen buses carrying passengers here on the Big Island.

Rick Rocheleau, Director of the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI), just gave me a glimpse into the future when he talked about a project he has submitted to the Department of Energy for funding.

Basically, he will take geothermal-generated electricity and run it through water to separate the hydrogen. A mobile fueling station will fuel up five hydrogen buses, which will be run by the County Transit Service.

Later, when the project moves into Phase 2, the hydrogen can be converted into ammonia, which can then be used for fertilizer and as an energy carrier.

Ammonia is more energy-dense than straight hydrogen. Maybe we could store it in a strategic reserve. Just thinking out loud.

From Dr. Rocheleau’s presentation:

The objective of this program is to evaluate the feasibility of utilizing a hydrogen production and storage system as a grid management tool to mitigate the impacts of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and geothermal, on the Big Island.   Hydrogen produced from the system would be used for a variety of value-added products, including use as a transportation fuel, as a fuel for stationary fuel cell products, and if budget allows in Phase 2, continue development of hydrogen as a chemical feedstock for the production of ammonia to be used as fertilizer and / or a chemical hydrogen carrier.  Optimized use of the electrolyzer, storage and secondary generation, and high value products is intended to increase the use of renewable energy resources, and reduce barriers to the introduction of the hydrogen infrastructure required to advance the “Hydrogen Economy.”

The following figure provides a conceptual illustration of a renewable hydrogen energy system used to produce hydrogen for energy, fuel, and chemical feedstock while also providing grid ancillary services.

Image003

Figure 1: Hydrogen Energy System

The system has three main components.  The first component is an electrolyzer that operates as a controllable load that provides ancillary services to the grid.  A second component, shown in the box on the lower right of the figure, is a set of value added products that utilize hydrogen for transportation fuels and producing fertilizer.  The third main component of the system, shown in the box on the upper right of the diagram, is additional grid services enabled by the hydrogen and oxygen produced by the electrolyzer.  The latter box shows three different potential electricity generating technologies than can used to produce power for additional grid services: fuel cell, steam turbine, and internal combustion engine.

A unique element of the overall program is the demonstration of the electrolyzer as a controllable variable load that can potentially provide grid services such as:

·         Up regulation
·         Down regulation
·         Off peak load (relieving curtailment of as available renewable energy)

In this mode, the electrolyzer would be operated around a production rate that would be determined by the demand for transportation fuels, auxiliary power, and chemical feedstock.  The electrolyzer would have the ability to reduce its load (ramp down) in response to a loss of generation on the system.  This capability to quickly drop load is equivalent to up regulation carried by generating units on the system.  The hydrogen energy system could also provide quick-responding increase in load (ramp up) that would be useful in loss-of-load events, such as a loss of transmission lines.  For this service, the difference between the maximum capacity of the electrolyzer and the steady state defines the ability of the electrolyzer to provide down regulation.

Who Will Be Our True Leaders? We’ll See

Who will be our true leaders?

From International Energy Association data, we know that future oil supply will start to decline in a very short time. Oil fields age and decline naturally. It is estimated that all the world oil fields combined decline in production at the rate of 4 million barrels per day every year.

Today we have about 6 million barrels of oil per day of spare capacity, mostly in the Middle East.  In a year and a half,  due to the natural decline rate of 4 million barrels per day, we will use up all the 6 million barrel spare capacity.

When that happens we will start down the back side of the world oil supply curve  — never to return. This means that every two and a half years we will need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia (which produces a little more than 10 million barrels per day) just to keep up with aging and declining oil fields.

But it is estimated that we will only be able to bring on 2 million barrels per day in new production when we need 4 million barrels per day just to keep up with the aging oil fields. After we go through the spare capacity, in about a year and a half, we will then be short two million barrels per day every year after that. In short time we will see $200 oil. That will mean gas will be higher than $7 per gallon. It will cost more than $100 to fill a small car’s gas tank.

Folks who can afford to will leave the electric grid as fast as they can, leaving the rubbah slippah folks and small businesses to pay for the cost of the electric grid.  We cannot let that happen if we can avoid it.

Unlike most of the people in the world we in Hawai‘i are very fortunate; we do have a solution.

We can go to cheap geothermal for our base power. If we get cheap electricity as a result, then more people are apt to stay on the grid. Cheap electricity makes electric cars more attractive. More people on the grid spreads the cost of the grid, resulting in lower rates for everyone.

As we all know, it’s the folks on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder that will get their lights turned off first. It’s a good chance they will be our Hawaiian brothers and sisters.

We cannot let that happen and profess to value the Hawaiian culture.

And here is a practical benefit: When the price of oil rises over time, as we know it will, our stable electricity rates will make us relatively more competitive to the rest of the world. Our people will have a higher standard of living compared to others.

For the sake of our future generations here, let’s get off that oil train and switch to geothermal.

Many of our leaders know about the oil situation. But many of them are afraid to take a stand, fearing that it might be too controversial.

We will soon find out who our true leaders really are!

Energy Meetings

I’m getting myself up to speed for a Hawai‘i Clean Energy
Initiative
steering committee meeting on Thursday.

I’m on O‘ahu right now, for three days of meetings with
various energy-related Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism working groups. They’ve been working on biofuels, electricity, end-use efficiency and transportation issues for a couple of years now. Among other things, I heard an update on various possible configurations of undersea cables.

These working groups will be handing off their work to the
steering committee for policy making and implementation.

The whole energy subject is very complex. I’m glad I bring a
farmer’s perspective; it helps me cut to the chase very quickly.

This is very interesting! And it is very serious business.

Touring the Maui Quarantine Inspection Facility

A couple weeks ago I went over to the Maui quarantine
inspection facility, which I was told is the best facility in the State for dealing with invasive species.

Master cho 2d trip 015

Kyle Yagi took me around and showed me how the facility works. First, it’s located right next to the commercial air cargo operators. So when air cargo arrives with produce, it travels just a short distance to a place where the air cargo containers are placed in a secure facility.

Master cho 2d trip 013

There are two rooms where several air containers can undergo simultaneous inspection
 The containers are opened up and inspectors go through each
box inspecting for invasive pests. This is all done in a secure area where insects, if found, cannot escape.

Master cho 2d trip 003

Giant bug light to attract any flying insects that might have escaped after inspections are completed

If the containers are found to be contaminated, the infested produce goes into an area where the temperature is set below freezing. That ensures that, when the minimum time elapses, all the insects are dead, and then the load is disposed of in the landfill.

Master cho 2d trip 012

A pallet of asparagus contaminated with invasive insect species

Master cho 2d trip 011

It’s being completely frozen until they are sure no insects survive; then they will dispose of it

The Department of Agriculture has told us that it is going to start posting the “frequency of contamination” on its website. Farmers would like to know what imported produce is routinely contaminated, so they can assess whether or not they can produce those products here.

It’s a very impressive facility. It would be good to have one at all the critical points of entry and departure.

Mauna Kea Management Board Unanimously Approves TMT

On Wednesday, the Mauna Kea Management Board (MKMB) met to discuss whether or not to approve the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) project on Mauna Kea. I was first to testify. This is what I said:

I recall meeting Henry Yang [TMT Board Chairman and Chancellor of UC Santa Barbara] for the first time in UH-Hilo Chancellor Rose Tseng’s office, when he was in town to find out if siting the Thirty Meter Telescope in Hawai‘i was even possible. At that time, it was a foregone conclusion that the telescope project was going to Chile.

I told him the most important thing to do in order to turn things around was to go talk story with the people. His face lit up, and he told me that was exactly what he wanted to do, because it was about talking to people and building relationships and trust.

In a short time, I could tell that this was a person you could do business with on a handshake. I knew that with Henry, we would not have to watch our backs. I even called my brother Kenneth to tell him that I thought things had changed.

Henry came to Hilo about 15 times, along with Jean Lou Chameau, president of Cal Tech. He did not come here seeking publicity; hardly anyone ever knew they were here. He visited with the regular folk.

He even visited Keaukaha Elementary School four times. The last time was when they had a free hour on Kupuna Day. We went over, sat on a bench and listened to kupuna giving advice to sixth graders.

After the program was pau, people asked them, “Where you guys going? Come, come; go eat.” People had made plates of laulau, poi, lomi salmon and haupia. Henry and Jean Lou dug in to eat and talked story with the folk. I could see that in the people’s eyes, they had become just Henry and Jean Lou.

In their trips talking to the regular folks, Henry and Jean Lou discovered that the lowest common denominator, which people on all sides of the issue could agree upon, was keiki education. As Kumu Lehua (principal of Keaukaha Elementary) says, “Not for only the best; what about the rest?”

The TMT folks committed to an annual million dollar education fund for the keiki. Funding would start as soon as all permits were obtained, and it would last through the construction and the life of the project—more than $50 million in all. This proved to us all that they heard the people.

As we went around visiting people, Patrick Kahawaiola‘a, president of the Keaukaha Community Association, told me that it’s about “the process.” And since the process would result in the best possible result, we need to aloha everyone who participates in the process, no matter which side of the issue they are on. Therefore, we must mahalo Kealoha, Nelson, Debbie, Paul, Ku, Hanalei, the Kanaka Council, Jim, Cory, Moani and many others. We would not be here today had it not been for their passionate advocacy.

The whole state has noticed that we on the Big Island are doing this differently. Our approach is based on mutual respect, collaboration
and trust. The TMT folks, led by Henry Yang, did it the right way. It
would not have worked any other way.

I have much aloha for Henry. My Pop used to tell me when I was a small kid – “Get thousand reasons why no can; I only looking for the one reason why can.”

The MKMB voted unanimously to approve construction of the TMT on Mauna Kea. I am convinced that the countless volunteers did the best they could to make sure that this project is pono.

Richard Appointed as Co-Chair of Working Group to Analyze Geothermal on Big Island

The Big Island Labor Alliance’s Geothermal Committee initiated SCR99:

REQUESTING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WORKING GROUP TO ANALYZE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE TO MEET THE BASELOAD DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY ON THE BIG ISLAND.

Senator Kokubun wrote the bill. It was heard at both houses’ energy committees, as well as the Senate’s Water, Land, Agriculture, and Hawaiian Affairs committees. It passed unanimously through all the committees.

I gave testimony to the Senate committees, pointing out that geothermal is the cheapest form of “base power.” I told them I am concerned that the utilities are encouraging the use of biofuels to power electric generators. Biofuels are much more expensive than geothermal-powered electricity. And it is the folks on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder who will get their lights turned off first, I reminded them, and that is most likely to be Hawaiians.

The County of Hawai‘i will be the lead agency, ensuring that this project will be accomplished in a timely manner. Mayor Billy Kenoi indicated that Wally Ishibashi and myself would be co-chairs of this working group. Wally and I work together seamlessly. We agree that we are both in favor of transparency and an open process.

The legislature wants a report 20 days before the start of the next legislative session. We will be ready to go in a few short weeks.

It is clear to us that we need to maximize geothermal energy. High electric rates don’t do anyone any good.

Here’s how SCR99 starts:

WHEREAS, in 1881, King David Kalakaua visited Thomas Edison  in New York to discuss extracting power from Hawaii’s volcanoes  and using underwater cables to carry power between islands; and

WHEREAS, at the time, his strategy did not prove to be
feasible, and hydropower was used to generate electricity to  light Honolulu; and

WHEREAS, today, technology advances make geothermal energy  not only feasible, but a top source of renewable energy; and

WHEREAS, geothermal energy is a more reliable source of
energy than solar or wind energy, because when the wind does not  blow and the sun does not shine, the heat from the volcano  continues to produce a steady flow of power; and

WHEREAS, Hawaii’s ratio of renewable energy generation (ten  per cent) to fossil fuel generation (ninety per cent) ranks  third in the nation; and

WHEREAS, the United States Department of Energy has
indicated that Hawaii is one of the best positioned states for  renewable energy potential; and…
read more

Help Our Food Bank With Your Vote

Vote for Rose’s project! Rose Acevedo is a board member of the Sierra Club. Here’s what she’s up to:

Pepsi Co. Refresh Project is offering a million dollars every month for great ideas that support local communities.

My idea, FRUITBUSTERS, to help feed the hungry in Hilo was approved by Pepsi on May 1st.  The goal of FRUITBUSTERS is to develop a small crew who will rescue all the ripe fruit from trees whose owners can’t do their own picking.  This abundance of fruit will then be donated to food banks and meal programs in our area.


The grant money will be awarded to those ideas that have the most votes.  FRUITBUSTERS is a finalist, so I have all of May to get as many votes as I can!  We need your support, so please log on to:

http://www.refresheverything.com/fruitbusters

to find out more, register and vote. Everyone who registers can vote EVERY DAY until May 31. 

Muchas gracias!

Rose Acevedo
roseacevedo@hotmail.com
756-5990

Picking fruit, that would otherwise just fall to the ground and go uneaten, and donating to the Foodbank  is a wonderful idea.

Let’s all vote for Rose so we can help her to help our community.