The World Energy Outlook for 2010: We Must Change Our Behavior

The International Energy Association (IEA) just issued its World Energy Outlook (WEO) for 2010. Image003

This graph shows that oil production from presently producing oil fields is projected to decline from around 65 million barrels/day to 20 million barrels/day in 2010. That’s 45 million barrels per day less coming out of today’s aging oil fields.

It’s approximately 1.8 million barrels/day less every year. From a previous WEO report, it was estimated that oil fields decline annually, due to old age, at around 4 million barrels per year. In order for our oil supply to stay steady until 2035, we would need to find 2.2 million barrels every year from now until 2035. This means we need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia every 4.5 to 5 years. That’s five Saudi Arabias in 25 years.

We know that we’ve been using two to three times more oil than we’ve been finding for the past 20 to 30 years. We must change our behavior.

Here in Hawai‘i, we have many renewable options. Geothermal is a proven technology, has less impact on the environment and is cheap relative to the other options.

The report concludes:

Image004

People, Passion & Perserverance

Steve Case, the Punahou graduate who went on to found AOL, gave a talk to business students at the East West Center recently, and Shara Enay at Hawaii Business magazine wrote about it.

His words really resonated with me. My dad told me the very same things when I was a young boy, and I never forgot them.

1. People: Motivated people can move mountains.

2. Perseverance: “Stick with it,” Case told students. “Don’t get discouraged and don’t let anything stop you.” “Big ideas take longer and usually involve bigger risks, but they are usually worth it.” It took AOL nine years to reach one million customers, Case said – but nine years later, they had 25 million.

3. Passion: You can’t fake it.

In his closing remarks, Case said he believes people in Hawai‘i are too risk-averse. “There’s too much concern about failing,” he said, “and that’s not going to result in great breakthrough companies. We can’t be afraid to fail.”

His ideas apply to my thinking about this project I was just asked to join.

It is huge, and if successful would change things beyond most folks’ imagination. It would result in lower and stable electricity rates for all of us. If we are successful, we will transform Hawai‘i into the place we all hoped it would be.

Some folks laugh out loud, uncontrollably, at the idea that we can do this. Others are very afraid for us personally. But if we can accomplish it, we will free Hawai‘i from the tyranny of oil.

The plan is to replace most, if not all, of Hawaii Electric Company’s oil-fired plants and instead use geothermal.

Geothermal is the greatest gift we have been given. When electricity is expensive, we all know that it’s the folks on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder who will get their lights turned off first. Too frequently, they will be Hawaiians.

The world has changed, oil is depleting faster than we would like, and out of this adversity comes our greatest opportunity. In modern Hawaiian history, the Hawaiian culture has given, given, given and the economy taken, taken, taken. If we can get our primary electrical power from geothermal, we will become relatively more competitive to the rest of the world and the standard of living of all of us, especially Hawaiians, will rise relative to the rest of the world. Then our aloha spirit can thrive.

And then, as with the example of how Hawaiians were sustainable in times past, we will become a shining example to show the world how people can live and work with each other in harmony with the ‘aina, and with respect for each other, now. In modern times.

This is the Hawai‘i we all want. There are a thousand reasons why “No can.” We are looking for the one reason why “CAN!”

Levelizing Electricity Bills Throughout the State

Last week I was approached by some people whose vision is to levelize the cost of electricity so that residents statewide pay a rate similar to, or less than, what O‘ahu residents pay.

On O‘ahu, they pay around 26 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh) for electricity. Here on the Big Island, we pay about 36 cents/kwh.

These people see geothermal as the resource we have available that could take us largely off oil. And, unlike with oil, geothermal power costs are stable.

They explained that although the geothermal resource is on the Big Island, the largest number of customers are on O‘ahu. And that they would need to reach those O‘ahu customers in order to have enough people to pay for the cable and to lower the rates of Big Islanders.

With lower electric rates, they would hopefully attract a lot of folks to buy electric cars. This too would increase electricity sales, and help stabilize rates at a lower level.

They spoke about running a cable to Kaua‘i, as well, and powering Kaua‘i if the science permits. They know that’s probably a money loser. But they feel that it’s the right thing to do. How can we leave our brothers and sisters defenseless when oil price start to rise?

They asked me if I would join their group. For several years I’ve been working toward lower electricity rates for the rubbah slippah folks. And now, with Peak Oil right around the corner, it’s critical that we move quickly. I told them my intention is to join them after I spend some time evaluating things.

I like their general approach and there will be lots of details to fill in along the way. But it is certainly better for the rubbah slippah folks than the path we are heading down now.

This Pacific Business News blog post, by Sophie Cocke, says that the electric utilities recently reported lower sales due to cool weather.

HECO, ‘bad’ weather and decoupling

Pacific Business News – by Sophie Cocke

Date: Monday, November 1, 2010, 8:57pm HST

Hawaiian Electric Industries, the parent company of Hawaiian Electric Co. and American Savings Bank, released its third-quarter earnings this weekend showing a 12 percent decline in electricity sales compared to the same quarter last year.

The company’s year-to-date revenues, through September, show an even sharper decline of 17 percent, compared to last year.

Two months ago, the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission approved decoupling for the utility companies, severing the link between sales and profits — a matter that has been on the forefront of shareholders’ minds during the company’s last two investor calls.

Read more: HECO, ‘bad’ weather and decoupling | Pacific Business News

Yes, but I wonder if the lower sales could also be due to folks leaving the grid to protect themselves from rising oil prices. When that happens, everybody else ends up paying more, and then we will begin dividing ourselves into the haves and the have nots. For ourselves and for future generations, we do not want this to happen.

Decoupling might protect the shareholders, but it does not give HECO any reason to be concerned about customers’ costs. It just allows them to do things like encourage expensive biofuels instead of bringing more geothermal on line.

Abercrombie, Shatz and Leadership

As I write this, the first Election Day printouts are in and it looks like Neil Abercrombie and Brian Shatz have an insurmountable lead for the Governorship and Lieutenant Governorship of Hawai‘i.

We are truly at a crossroads in human history, and it is going to take real leadership to lead all of us to greener pastures. I have all the confidence in the world in Neil Abercrombie’s leadership abilities. He will take us there!

In terms of renewable energy, we must utilize our natural resources to their maximum potential. What we have here on the Big Island is truly extraordinary. While the rest of the world is fearful of a decline in available energy, we here in Hawai‘i have the most powerful energy source available to us. It is geothermal.

What if we could connect all the islands to this energy? What if we all shared, so everybody on every island pays the same low amount? What if this cost would hardly rise?

And what if this source of energy would last 500,000 to a million years? Wouldn’t we fix whatever it is that’s holding us back?

I feel good about Abercrombie and Shatz being elected, and confident that we will take the right path to the future.

For the sake of future generations: Not, no can. CAN!

Take Aways From The Peak Oil Conference, and Why We Are Lucky

My take-away impressions of the 2010 Peak Oil conference:

  • For more than 20 years, we have been using 2 to 3 times more oil than we have been finding. Because oil is finite, sooner or later we will not be able to maintain the amount we burn every day.
  • The International Energy Association, the folks that count barrels for the rich nations, estimate that oil fields age at the rate of 5 to 6 percent per year—about 4 million barrels per day, annually. That is the amount we need to find just to keep up with aging oil fields.
  • The amount of oil the world is producing has been the same since 2004.  And even though the price went way up, the world did not increase oil production. How come? Maybe it was because we could not. 
  • Lloyds of London, in a white paper sent to its business clients, warns of $200 per barrel oil by 2013. That is not surprising; it's about the time the 90-day accessible reserves run out.
  •  In Hawai‘i, we are unbelievably lucky to have geothermal. It is way cheaper than oil, it is stable and it is proven technology. It can help to elevate our native people's standard of living, as well as the that of the rest of us.

The Renaissance of Agriculture in Hawaii

I was part of a panel discussion of the Hawaii Venture Capital Association, which presents a monthly professional meeting at the Plaza Club in Pioneer Plaza in Honolulu.

The topic was “The Renaissance of Agriculture in Hawaii.” Panel members were Darren Demaya of Kai Market at the Sheraton Hotel; Claire Sullivan of Whole Foods; Andres Albano of CB Richard Ellis; Kyle Datta of Ulupono Initiative, and myself.

Someone told me they thought the attendance at this event was exceptional. I thought, “Everyone likes to eat.”

Gubernatorial Candidate Neil Abercrombie sat with Kyle Datta and I before the event started. He told us that his style of operating is to ask the folks who know a subject to give their opinions on what should be done and how to do it. He said, I rely on you guys to get it done; you’re the experts.

At the end of this post is the speech I gave, as written. But, as always, I started winging it from the start.

I began by saying that I have the answer to the problem. After I let that sit for a few moments, I told them what it is:

“Food security is about farmers farming, and if farmers make money, farmers will farm.”

That’s all there is to it, I told them; it isn’t rocket science.

I told the group that my Ag and energy blog is called hahaha.hamakuasprings.com, and that it represents three generations of the Ha family. I told them that I just got an email from Gordon Vredenberg, my buddy from 7th grade who lives on the mainland now. He told me, “I ran across your blog, and boy, things have changed. There was a time that if someone repeated your last name twice in a row, there would be a scrap right there.” The audience laughed.

I repeated my phrase, “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm,” several times in my talk. I could tell it stuck.

Later, when someone asked what the future of agriculture might look like, I answered, “If the farmer…”

The audience cracked up. They knew the rest of the sentence: “…makes money, the farmer will farm.” It was a fun event.

But on a serious note, it was heartwarming to hear Darren Demaya and Claire Sullivan talk about their commitment to using locally grown produce. This helps “farmers make money.” Kyle Datta gave a high-level vision of how we are going to achieve food security.

Andres Albano presented a perspective that very few of us get to see. I didn’t know they were the ones responsible for marketing the entire C. Brewer land sale, which involved tens of thousands of acres. He described the value of the sugar infrastructure for food production, especially the water system. Of course, he is right.

After the panel discussion, people came over to talk. One person asked what I thought of large-scale, mechanized agriculture. I said that in the “new economy” it will be more important to have resiliency and redundancy, and so I prefer small- and medium-sized farming entities all over the state, instead of one giant industrial farm that might need to source foreign labor. It might cost a little more, but it will be a lot safer for all of us.

Lots of the conversation revolved around “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm.” I said that if the discussion strays and becomes a couple of steps removed from that basic thought, no sense waste the time. People really get that.

Here’s the talk I gave:

Renaissance of Agriculture

We farm 600 fee simple acres just outside of Hilo. We have 60 workers, and our primary products used to be bananas and hydroponic vegetables. Now they include sweet potatoes, sweet corn, taro, beans, etc. and will include more things. We have deep soil, three streams and three springs, and we are putting in a hydroelectric generator soon.

We are a family operation of three generations of Has. That is why our blog is called hahaha.hamakuasprings.com. We have been farming for more than 30 years.

Several years ago, we noticed our farm input costs rising, and realized it was due to oil.  We always try to position our company 5 to 10 years in the future, so in 2007 I went to the Peak Oil Conference in Houston to learn about oil. I learned that oil is finite, that the world is using 2 to 3 times more than we were finding and at some point we were going to find that we cannot produce more and then we will start down the backside of the oil supply curve. Sooner or later, we are going to face a new economy of higher oil prices.

Based on the idea that food security involves farmers farming and if the farmers make money the farmers will farm, we set out on a two-part Ag security plan for ourselves.

On a larger scale: We are promoting geothermal, the cheapest form of electricity base power. It would give folks discretionary income, so they could support local retailers and local farmers. That effort is ongoing.

And on our farm: We decided to transform our 600-acre fee simple farm from a one-entity production model to the “Family of Farms” model.

First thing we did back in 2007 was to pass legislation authorizing a special renewable energy farm loan program. It offers 3 percent, long term financing and is what we are using to help to finance our hydro project.

In June 2008, when oil price spiked and gas prices hit their peak, some of my workers asked to borrow money for gas to come to work. That was scary and clearly unsustainable.

We immediately decided to restructure our business to be relevant to the new economy. We knew that if farmers made money, farmers would farm and we wanted to add value for our retail customers. We began to implement our Family of Farms model. We decided to bring in area farmers to help keep the land in production.

To help farmers make money we:

  • Offer low-rent land, cheap water, deep soil, and plastic covered houses to grow crops
  • If farmers made money then we could make money by distributing
  • It would give all of us economic reasons to stay together.
  • Strengthen our brand by showing citizens that we are moving toward food security, giving them reason to support our brand.
  • Add value for our retail customers, who are interested in shortening their supply lines in the new economy.

Results we hope for:

  • Match our labor needs to the community.
  • Farmers from the nearby community. They have their own houses.
  • More productivity from our lands.
  • Profitability is reason for us to stick together.
  • More and varied food calories for the community.

Also, we are working with the USDA on a larger, zero waste program for the Hamakua Coast. We are working on renewable fuel projects that are appropriately scaled:

  • Biodigester for rendering plant down the coast. End products might be fertilizer, compost, etc.
  • Heterotrophic algae oil project that would get its carbon from our and others’ waste Ag products. Residual product to be animal/fish food.

To recap:

Considering the new economy is how we became directly involved in bringing the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) to Hawai‘i. It will help us transition and prepare our people on the Big Island for the new economy.

That is also why we are so involved in sourcing cheap geothermal for electrical base power. We are sitting on the largest battery in the world. The folks on the lowest rung of the economic ladder will get their lights turned off first if we choose expensive electricity. Too often they are Hawaiians. As oil prices rise, we become relatively more competitive to the rest of the world and our standard of living will rise relative to the rest of the world. Doing this will strengthen the aloha spirit.

The Family of Farms model brings us closer to our communities, while giving area farmers the opportunity to make money – because if the farmers make money, the farmers will farm. And for our workers we are actively planting ulu, bamboo, tilapia, etc. Since we have a difficult time raising our workers’ pay, we give them food from what we grow.

In the new economy, we will need stronger communities, we need to make more friends and stay closer to our families.

Not, no can. CAN!

Why Geothermal Will Increase Everyone’s Standard of Living

The paradox of living in Hawaii has long been that the native people give and give, and the economic system takes and takes.

Finally, we have a solution—one that is good for everyone and in multiple ways. I’m talking about geothermal.

We are using up our “cheap oil” every day now, and without cheap oil, our economy and world economies will not grow. Very soon, we will only have expensive oil, and when costs are too high we go into recession.

The growth of the world’s GDP will be less than it was yesterday, and maybe for as long as we can imagine. Neoclassical economists assume constant growth, but this is impossible when world oil supplies are decreasing as they are now.

This is why I’m such an advocate for using geothermal for energy on the Big Island. Its cost will not go up; it will stay steady even as world oil prices increase. As that happens, we will become relatively more competitive to the rest of the world. As the world’s standard of living declines, we will stay the same.

This means that our standard of living will actually increase, relative to the rest of the world.

Geothermal’s energy return on investment (EROI) is high. EROI is key:

…EROI is similar to its economic analog, which is return on investment (ROI). The idea is that you have a cost of getting a resource and hopefully you input that cost and you get some oil out. EROI is simply the energy produced from an energy extraction process divided by the energy you put in. We add up the cost of building the rig, the diesel fuel used on a rig, and what you get is a ratio of energy out divided by energy in. That number is essentially a measure of quality. It’s an efficiency calculation, but you can understand it as a measure of extraction and how difficult that extraction process is. Historically, if you look back at East Texas and see a lot of the big oil fields in the United States, the EROI was very high. Today, it’s obviously a much more complicated industry. For example, deepwater platforms cost billions of dollars and the wells are much deeper. The energy input has grown a lot. In general, EROI is this measure of extraction quality and how that changes over time…. Read more at The Oil Drum

The Train Is Leaving The Station & We Need To Act Now

We are at a real crossroads now – like hundreds of years ago, when Polynesians were sending people north in canoes – and I am serious when I ask: Are we going to do something, or are we just going to talk about it?

I am referring, of course, to our energy problem. It’s about to become critical.

  • Lloyds of London has warned its business clients to be prepared for $200/barrel oil by 2013.
  • In speaking with Forbes magazine, Charlie Maxwell predicted Peak Oil will happen in seven years. http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2010/09/13/maxwell-forecasts-peak-oil-in-seven-years
  • The German military is also worried about Peak Oil.
  • Many, many other credible groups agree that this is a very critical problem.

We will probably hit Peak Oil sooner rather than later. There is just too much evidence indicating that oil is depleting.

Sitting out here in the middle of the ocean, we must prepare for the worse case scenario. We need to move toward solutions that make us safe, rather than sorry. And we need to move now. We have no time to waste.

My objective is to help us all to survive and still have affordable electricity.

Geothermal is something we have right here that can be considered a game changer. Are we up to the challenge?

There’s no more time for merely throwing around words. We need to act, and now.

The train is leaving the station.

Hilo Sampans Then and Now

Gordon “Da Sampan Man” Cline came to visit on Tuesday. He lives in Santa Barbara, California and owns one of the old Hilo sampan buses. I bought the sampan bus that was at the Lyman Museum at an auction several years ago.

He has managed to track down every one of the 12 sampan buses that are still in existence. He dropped off some news articles and we looked at pictures of the other buses.

Here’s a picture of our sampan and Chef Peter Merriman (right), as well as Assistant Chef Dan Salvador (left) and Chef Neil Murphy (middle).

Sampan

This article was in the Honolulu Advertiser on June 21, 1959:

Hilo’s Sampan Buses
These special conveyances provide colorful transportation
By RON BENNETT

There’s nothing more distinctively Hilo than a Hilo Sampan bus.

They are an immediate delight for Visitors who’ve never seen anything quite like them before. You often see tourists congregating around a “captured” sampan. Snapping pictures for the folks back home.

For kicks the vacationers some times jump into one of the open air Jitneys and take a Hilo bus ride.

Hiloans regard their sampans bus system something in the possessive fashion that Bay City dwellers view their trolley cars.

A big hullabaloo was raised back in 1949 when exasperated Hawaii county officials tried to enforce some rhyme and reason in bus routes, pick ups and fares.

For decades the jitneys followed no set courses. They moseyed around town in a haphazard manner, picking up customers at random and taking them to entirely incompatible destinations.

Drivers complained of colleagues rustling their customers and invading vaguely defined boundaries of priority. Some were accused of cut throat tactics. And other types of unprofessional conduct.

In a nutshell, mass public transportation in Hilo was a mess.

However, some patrons—particularly those on better populated, thus better served streets—objected to any governmental changes that might adversely affect their good bus service. On rainy days they could depend on drovers taking them right up to the doorsteps, a service doomed under governmental controls.

Controls had to come and they did. Officials named a distinguished World War ll veteran, Tsuneo Takemoto, as director.  With Italy behind him, he soon brought peace and regularity out of chaos.

Today 25 sampans serve 15 Hilo routes on a rotating basis so every driver can get a crack at the plushier routes. On these busier routes commuters have no longer than about 10 minutes to wait between buses.

A common belief that the unusual body used for the sampans comes from Manila or some other foreign place is incorrect. They are made in Hilo.

The same type of bus has been in operation in Hilo for at least 40 years, according to one oldtimer. One of the first to use the design is said to be the late Fukumatsu Kusumoto, who ran a jitney between the Hilo Wharf and uptown, ages ago.

One source believes Kusumoto took the body style from a picture he saw once of a bus in Mexico.

Recent years have brought about one noticeable change in the sampan buses. Once gawdy in their color schemes, they’re now more conservative in dress.

Rainy Season at the Farm

It feels like the seasons are starting to change. This, the rainy time of year, is when the plastic covers on our growing houses are advantageous. Our crops grow, without interruption, all the way through February. During the shorter days, the ground stays damp because there are less hours of sunlight to dry up the soil.

Finally, in this past week, the stream is starting to increase in volume. We’d been starting to worry about the spring water flow. Coming back from Kona on the Saddle road recently, we noticed the pastures are starting to turn green. It feels like the dry period is over for some parts of the island.

IMG_0422

Here are some more pictures from the farm. This is the first kalo crop grown at Hamakua Springs and it looks really healthy. Tom Menezes is the farmer, and he really knows what he is doing. Among other things, he is a taro breeder.

IMG_0426

This is the first ‘ulu tree growing at Hamakua Springs. It wants to grow tall and we will have to constantly prune to keep its fruit within reach. We would rather plant a variety that is shorter in stature.

IMG_0416

We transplanted this ‘ulu at the farm a few weeks ago. Instead of fertilizer, we used the spent coconut media that we use for our hydroponic tomato crops. The tomato plant is a volunteer that germinated from the coconut media. There is one flower cluster, and the plant is very healthy even though we did not give it any conventional fertilizer.

IMG_0419

We found this kalo growing in the river and we are growing it on the hydroponic solution we use for green onions. To my great surprise, it has thrown out runners. I wonder what Jerry Konanui will say?

IMG_0425