Forcing Change

July 26, 2011 Richard Ha

On Saturday, I spoke at a workshop on soil-less farming, which was put on by the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources at UH Manoa. The core group was made up of aquaculture enthusiasts, and the workshop expanded into hydroponics (the growing of crops in soil-less media). About 170 people attended.

Fred Lau spoke on the challenges that he has faced while developing his aquaponic operation. Tim Mann and Susan Friend spoke on their Friendly aquaponic operation on the Big Island. They sell modular aquaponic systems with complete, how-to instructions.

Tisha Uyehara spoke about marketing produce. She pointed out the importance of growing what is in demand, and in the quantity and quality that retailers need.

I was asked to speak about Hamakua Springs’ hydroponic tomatoes. I started by asking how many in the audience were new farmers or folks who are interested in farming. Maybe 40 people raised their hands. They looked to be younger folks, in their 20s to 30s. I have noticed that lots of folks are interested in farming; they are just trying to figure out how they can make a living at it. I got the feeling that most of the audience was made up of community folks.

Instead of talking about the technical details of our operation, which they could learn by taking courses or getting information from the internet, I decided to share with them the thought processes that went into developing our farm.

I related how my Pop told us small kids to look for three answers to every problem and then find one more. He also said, “There are a thousand reason why no can; I am only looking for the one reason why Can!”

I told them about being influenced by my experiences in the jungles of Vietnam, where the unwritten rule was that “We all come back or no one comes back.” I liked that attitude of taking care of each other. Although I had flunked out of UH earlier, this time I knew I wanted to go into business and so I decided to major in accounting, in order to keep score.

Then Pop asked me to come and run the family poultry farm. I had no money, but really that was a blessing, because then I could not lose money. Instead, I gained experience. We traded chick manure to get banana keiki, and eventually grew to be the largest banana farm in Hawai‘i.

Along the way, we had to change and adapt constantly, and so change is second nature to us. We just look into the future five to 10 years, and force the changes to get us there. I told the audience that this is the secret to our survival. It isn’t rocket science, but is common sense: Being able to adapt and force change are traits that have served us well over the years.

I could tell from the audience’s reaction that they absolutely got it; that they have the tools, or can get the tools, that are necessary to make a difference.

Six or seven years ago, we realized that input costs to our farm were rising due to the fossil fuel component. I went to the Peak Oil Conference to learn about oil and figure out how we would force change so we could adapt our farm to be relevant in the future.

I learned that the world has been using twice as much oil as it has been finding, and has been doing so for 20 to 30 years. That was clearly not sustainable and we set out to transform our farm. We looked into using the water flowing downstream to generate electricity. Soon we will be completely off the electric grid.

We also downsized our farm, and then made up for the loss of production by leasing land to area farmers. The result is that the productivity of our land has actually increased, and the variety of products has increased as well. Another benefit: It strengthens our community.

I talked about how sun energy gives mainland farmers an edge over Hawai‘i farmers. Long summer days result in high production, and as the production follows the sun around the country, this advantage is kept throughout summer.

But I told the audience that we could get an advantage if we were able to use our natural resources to get cheaper electricity. Quite often folks think that fuel is the highest cost of getting farm-grown food to the table. It is actually the cost of electricity that is more important. Keeping the cold chain from the farm to the home refrigerator is actually more costly than the cost to run the tractors.

When oil is $100 per barrel, which is near today’s price, the cost to make electricity from oil is around 20 cents/kWh. However, the cost to make electricity from geothermal is only about 10 cents/kWh, and it will remain stable.

Lloyds of London warns of $200 per barrel oil by 2013. The cost to generate electricity from that oil will rise to 40 cents/kWh, while geothermal electricity will stay at 10 cents/kWh.

The answer to food and economic security is to force change.

I was struck by people’s reactions to my talk. The way that people expressed their appreciation for what I said makes me think that people are getting very worried for Hawai‘i’s future. I think that people felt hopeful, that common sense was more important to survival than any amount of letters after one’s title.

Geothermal, Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources

A Humorous Look at How This Could All Play Out

July 22, 2011 Richard Ha

Since the start of the industrial revolution, our energy use has grown about 2.9 percent per year. This article says that to keep growing at even 2.3 percent per year beyond 275 years, we would have to put solar panels on every square meter of land.

Considering the sun’s energy seems limitless, what happens if we could maximize its use?

The article, from Energy Bulletin (July 12, 2011), is Part One of a series that tries to bring large concepts into view by using simple estimations to their logical, and sometimes humorous, conclusions.

Galactic-scale energy

by Tom Murphy

…Surely in 275 years we will be smart enough to exceed 20% efficiency for such an important global resource. Let’s laugh in the face of thermodynamic limits and talk of 100% efficiency (yes, we have started the fantasy portion of this journey). This buys us a factor of five, or 70 years. But who needs the oceans? Let’s plaster them with 100% efficient solar panels as well.

Another 55 years. In 400 years, we hit the solar wall at the Earth’s surface. This is significant, because biomass, wind, and hydroelectric generation derive from the sun’s radiation, and fossil fuels represent the Earth’s battery charged by solar energy over millions of years. Only nuclear, geothermal, and tidal processes do not come from sunlight—the latter two of which are inconsequential for this analysis, at a few terawatts apiece…. Read the rest

Plant leaves are mini solar collectors. Can we convert the product of leaves’ work and convert that result into something that yields more usable energy than what the leaves manufactured in the first place? So far, we have not been very successful.

Most of the processes that involve biofuels have a low net energy result — energy-in versus energy-out. In fact, because there are fossil fuel inputs, there is a term that describes the result. It is called the “receding horizon.” The break-even point recedes into the horizon as fossil fuel prices rise.

While I am for using sun energy to help solve Hawai‘i’s food and fuel problem, I am also for emphasizing geothermal energy as a way to give Hawaii a game-changing energy/food/social advantage relative to the rest of the world. This is about positioning future generations for survival and prosperity all at once.

My Pop would say: Find three solutions for every problem and then find one more just in case. Now is the time to implement that special, geothermal solution.

Biofuel, Geothermal, Peak Oil

Defining Terms & Why Oahu’s In Trouble

July 20, 2011 Richard Ha

Base Power: Eighty percent of the feed source (oil, geothermal energy, biofuels) that an electric utility uses to produce electricity must result in what is called “base load” power. Base Load Power is the power that keeps electricity flowing smoothly to customers, so there aren’t rolling blackouts and flickering lights.

Because 80 percent of the utilities’ power must be base load power, one should pay close attention to the cost of that base load power.

Intermittent Power: The other 20 percent, made up mostly of sun power and wind power, is “intermittent power.” Big Wind falls into the 20 percent category.

O‘ahu depends overwhelmingly on oil for its base power. The utility could import biofuels, but biofuels are much more expensive than oil.

The International Energy Association, which represents the “rich” countries of the world, warns that the era of cheap oil is over.

In Jan 2011, the cost to generate electricity from oil was approximately 16 cents per kWh. By June (when oil was close to $100 per barrel) this had increased to 22 cents/kWh.

Barrons and Goldman Sachs predict that oil will cost $150/barrel within two quarters, and so we can guess that the cost to make electricity from oil may be more than 30 cents/kWh.

And Lloyds of London warns of $200 oil by 2013 – so 40 cents/kWh to make electricity? That’s less than two years from now, and almost double what it costs now.

By contrast, electricity from geothermal is estimated to cost around 10 cents/kWh and this would not change much over the years. Jim Kauahikaua, the chief scientist at the Hawaii Volcano Observatory, told me that the Big Island would be over the hot spot that generates geothermal activity for 500,000 to a million years.

Below is one estimation of the world’s future oil supply. In spite of rising prices, world oil supply has not increased since 2004. Keep in mind that we may not have started to drop down the backside of the world oil supply curve – YET.

Oahu is in trouble!

Geothermal

Hawaii: Roots of Fire

July 18, 2011 Richard Ha

I just happened to run across Hawaii: Roots of Fire, a new PBS documentary about the hidden forces driving the planet’s largest and most active volcanic system – the one here in the Hawaiian Islands.

Here’s a clip from the documentary:

This is especially significant because geothermal energy has been so prominent in political discussions here these last few days.

According to the documentary, the lava upwelling that formed the chain of islands up to the Aleutians Islands originated from below the mantle, and maybe even from the earth’s core. This process has been going on for 75 million years.

Geothermal energy does not come from the “hot spot.” It originates in stored heat from old lava flows. So the use of geothermal energy does not interfere with Pele’s ability to make land. Lava for new land (like the new island Lo‘ihi that is forming on the bottom of the ocean right now) comes directly from the hot spot.

This next video is also worth a look. It’s a podcast that lets you tour some of the Big Island’s geologic and cultural sites.

Take a virtual tour of the Big Island of Hawaii’s unmatched volcanic features with volcano expert Dr. Donald DePaolo of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley. This tour is hosted by geologist and filmmaker Doug Prose, co-producer of Hawaii: Roots of Fire. You will visit eleven important geologic and cultural sites on the Big Island outside of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. It starts in Hilo and ends at South Point. If you want to see these amazing places in person, download the map and take it with you. Allow a few days to visit every place quickly, but you could easily spend a full day at each place exploring!

Heading to Iceland

July 15, 2011 Richard Ha

This is Part Two of a series; see Part One here.

Along with Ro Marth, CEO of Kuokoa, I have been invited to go to Iceland.

We want to find out how Iceland went from being a developing country in the 1970s to one of the most productive countries in the world today. With fishing, geothermal and hydro, they have food and fuel in abundance.

From Wikipedia:

While Iceland is a highly developed country, until the 20th century it was among the poorest countries in Western Europe….

In 2007, Iceland was the seventh most productive country in the world per capita (US$54,858), and the fifth most productive by GDP at purchasing power parity ($40,112)….

Renewable sources—geothermal and hydropower—provide effectively all of Iceland’s electricity[83] and around 80% of the nation’s total energy,[83] with most of the remainder from imported oil used in transportation and in the fishing fleet.[84][85] Iceland expects to be energy-independent by 2050. Iceland’s largest geothermal power plants are Hellisheiði and Nesjavellir,[86][87] while Kárahnjúkavirkjun is the country’s largest hydroelectric power station.[88]

If it’s true that an increasing energy supply due to oil is mostly responsible for the work that goes into manufacturing things – in other words, the world economy – then declining oil supplies will result in less manufacturing of stuff.

For the last 20 to 30 years, the world has been using twice as much oil as it’s been finding, and this trend will likely continue. Since the world’s oil supply is declining, rather than increasing, we cannot expect to rely on government grants, because governments rely on growth to get their revenues. This raises the question of how Hawaii State and County governments will balance their budgets.

We will have to tax the people who cannot bear the taxes when the economy is not growing. Or we need to grow the economy. Growing the economy is clearly the best alternative. But how?

I’m very interested in seeing what they are doing in Iceland.

Current Affairs, Government

Reapportionment

July 13, 2011 Richard Ha

I am on the Hawaii Island Reapportionment Advisory Council. The group submitted a letter to the State Reapportionment Commission advising against counting active military, dependents and felons in the population. But the state Reapportionment Commission voted against our suggestion.

On Sunday, the Hawaii County Democratic Party had a meeting, which I attended, and voted to draft a resolution in strong protest to the State Reapportionment Commission’s decision. Read its Resolution to Secure Fair, Equitable Representation for the Residents of Hawai‘i County.

Today, at 12 noon, I am attending a meeting of the Maui and Hawaii Island advisory group members. The meeting is being held to decide how to proceed, in light of the vote by the State Reapportionment Commission to include the military in O‘ahu’s count.

Due to population growth, the Big Island might have an extra Senate seat at stake.

At 2 p.m. today, I will attend the State Reapportionment Commission meeting.

Film, Food Security

Farmageddon

July 9, 2011 Richard Ha 1 Comment

It is very dangerous for Hawai‘i to rely on a handful of big farmers.

The movie Farmageddon talks about how this has come about; not only in Hawai‘i, but in the nation:

Filmmaker Kristin Canty’s quest to find healthy food for her four children turned into an educational journey to discover why access to these foods was being threatened. What she found were policies that favor agribusiness and factory farms over small family-operated farms selling fresh foods to their communities. Instead of focusing on the source of food safety problems — most often the industrial food chain — policymakers and regulators implement and enforce solutions that target and often drive out of business small farms that have proven themselves more than capable of producing safe, healthy food, but buckle under the crushing weight of government regulations and excessive enforcement actions.

Farmageddon highlights the urgency of food freedom, encouraging farmers and consumers alike to take action to preserve individuals’ rights to access food of their choice and farmers’ rights to produce these foods safely and free from unreasona-bly burdensome regulations. The film serves to put policymakers and regulators on notice that there is a growing movement of people aware that their freedom to choose the foods they want is in danger, a movement that is taking action with its dollars and its voting power to protect and preserve the dwindling number of family farms that are struggling to survive.

Although we are Food Safety Certified ourselves, tougher rules and regulations will regulate small farmers out of business — just when we need them most.

Education, Peak Oil

We are Teaching Our Economics Students Wrong

July 6, 2011 Richard Ha

In economics, we teach everyone that Land, Labor and Capital are the elements of production. Along the line, we forgot that energy from cheap oil is what made deploying Capital so important. We started to believe that growth was automatic. And we taught that to millions of students.

The U.S. Department of Education shows 4,861 colleges and universities with 18,248,128 students in 2007. We are teaching these students wrong. Millions of students are being taught that finite resources are not important.

The cover of the July 4th edition of Barron’s magazine says Get Ready for $150 Oil:

…As oil producers’ spare capacity gradually declines to worrisome levels, the average monthly price could reach a record $150 per barrel by next spring, with spikes to $165 or $170. With this, $4.50-a-gallon gasoline will become the norm. That will put a huge dent in consumer wallets, while ramping up the desirability of fuel-efficient cars.

Read the rest

Why is this a surprise?

We’ve known about Peak Oil for at least 20 years. How come our whole country was not warned, so we could be preparing?

Maybe this complex society we have built from cheap oil has become too complex to understand?

To look back: In the 1600s, those who owned lots of land were wealthy. The energy that made things grow was the sun. So the more land you had, the more sun energy was working for you. Makes sense.

Then in the 1700s, we started to use metal tools to produce more food and so we had extra people floating around. We organized the extra people in factories, and with steam engines we produced wealth. Okay, that’s understandable. The Industrial Revolution came about and Labor was an important factor of production. So far, so good.

Then in the mid-1800s we started to use cheap oil, and over the next 150 years we built a very complex society. We needed to keep score and deploy resources and so we described that as Capital. And things became very complex.

So what happens as oil starts to decline? It seems to me that the total amount of work the people of the world can do will also decline. Let’s say that instead of a full four quarts of gas, you are sent out to cut down trees with your chainsaw and only three quarts of gas. You will probably produce fewer logs and be less productive.

I think that is what we can expect to happen to the world economy.

I truly believe that the social science of economics has lost its way.

This is Part One of a three part discussion. See Part Two here.

History

Happy 4th, & The Value of Whale Oil

July 4, 2011 Richard Ha

Happy Independence Day to you all.

Our country has come a long way in 225 years.

From the blog 24/7 Wall St.:

The cost of living in America has gone up about fifteen fold since the Declaration of Independence was signed in 1776. Of course, not all prices have risen at the same rate.

The value of coffee has increased fifteen times from its price 234 years ago. This is similar to the decrease in the value of the dollar, based on the purchasing power of a dollar and the consumer price index.

The value of land has risen a great deal in certain parts of the country – particularly those areas that were rural and now are parts of big cities. It was impossible to know 150 years ago that land in New York’s Central Park would be worth several thousand times what it was in 1776. Conversely, products like whale oil, once used to light homes, now have no legal value at all. Powdered wigs have almost certainly dropped in value now that they are out of fashion. Read the rest

Here’s a chart showing America’s energy consumption (of wood, coal, hydroelectric power, petroleum, natural gas, and nuclear power) from 1776 through 2007. It will be interesting to see what a similar chart looks like in another 50 or 100 years.

Happy 4th of July!

Hawaiian Role Models, Sustainability, Travel

Learning From The Past & Moving Forward

June 28, 2011 Richard Ha

My impressions regarding the arrival of the seven vaka:

The canoes: They looked like ancient canoes, but were equipped with the most modern equipment.

TJ Glauthier, me, Patrick Kahawaiola’a, Ramsay Taum and Rick Blangiardi. All are Ku‘oko‘a members, except for Patrick, who is President of the Keaukaha Community Association