Category Archives: Sustainability

Community, Education, Sustainability

Sustaining

Yesterday was very interesting. I drove from Hilo to the Outrigger Hotel at Keauhou to give a thirty minute speech about sustainable agriculture at the third annual Kuleana Business Conference and Trade Show. It was part of the Kona Earth Festival, which has the slogan: “Island Self-Reliance Through Sustainable Living.”

A native Hawaiian speaker described us as floating in the middle of the Pacific Ocean on a little life raft. It is hopeful to see that people are coming together to find ways to make our lives here sustainable.

Right after my talk, I was interviewed for a video documentary about sustainable agriculture issues, then participated in a 30-minute talk-story session on the radio station Lava 105. It was all very interesting and promising.

The most interesting thing I did yesterday, though, was a talk-story session with the interns in the Keaholoa STEM program at UH Hilo, which I rushed back to Hilo for. The students are preparing for next week’s ho‘ike, where they will report on their research projects. Some of the projects: the study of coral health at Vacation Land; alternate insect pollinators, other than bees, of the Big Island; the cultivation of edible limu, and other interesting topics.

These are our best and brightest native Hawaiian students of Science, Tech, Engineering and Math. We had a short discussion about bio fuels, genetically modified organisms, hydro- and geothermal power. It doesn’t get better than talking with the students. It was very stimulating and I am left with an encouraging feeling that our future is in good hands.

Renewable Energy Sources, Sustainability

Tell ’em Rodrigo Sent You

2 Comments

Rodrigo Romo recently wrote up an analysis of how a solar hot water heater installation works.

After the amount it saves you covers the installation cost, the sun makes electricity for you “free.” This is the same principle utilized in the alternative energy Farm Loan Bill that we are submitting to the Legislature this year.

The current High Tech Business Investment Tax Credit, Act 221, gives a 100 percent state income tax credit for alternate energy projects. So farmers can have their projects built free through income tax savings—just like Rodrigo’s solar water heater example.

Rodrigo writes: We just installed a solar water heater in our house this week because there is a pretty good deal going on. We were told that it should cut back the utility bill by about $20 per person, or about $80 dollars a month. The prices listed here include everything (installation too; it is a turn-key price).

The total cost of the system was $6,656, tax included, but the deal is as follows:

Solar System $6,400
Tax $256
Total $6,656

HELCO Rebate ($1,000)
Federal Credit ($1,697) ($5,656 x 30%)
State Credit ($1,980) ($5,656 x 35%)

Balance to pay $1,980

Right now they have a 12 month, zero down and no interest plan. And if you get it done before the end of the year, you get the federal and state credits on this year’s tax return. The state and federal amounts are not an income deduction, but an actual credit.

The guy that sold it to us is Jonathan Ahn (Solar Engineering and Contracting). His number is 966-9066 and his cell is 255-1824. We got an 80 gallon active system which includes the two solar panels and an 80 gallon tank. If you call him, tell him that Rodrigo Romo gave you the information!

Biofuel, Food Security, Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources, Sustainability

Fundamental Assumptions

Sally Odland, a former geologist and project manager, has worked in mineral exploration, oil & gas exploration, environmental remediation, and exhibit design. She wrote this article below (in italics) for The Day, a newspaper in New London, Connecticut, and here I have interjected some comments as they relate to Hawai‘i.

“Who’d have thought we’d already be nostalgic for $80 oil? Only five years ago, a barrel of crude oil was trading comfortably at $25-$30, where it had for 15 years. Today the same barrel fetches $90-something, and it’s anyone’s bet whether oil will break $100 before Christmas. That’s a 300% price increase in five years, 50% in the last year alone. Credible energy analysts predict $200 to $300 oil in the next few years. No wonder the Feds removed energy costs from the core inflation index!” 

In the last few weeks Matson announced a rate hike for its seagoing cargo arriving from the West Coast; Aloha Airlines announced a rate hike of 5 cents per pound for its air cargo; Young Brothers barge company announced a rate hike for interisland freight, and HELCO, our electric utility, announced a rate hike as well. Yesterday, while participating at the Kino‘ole Street farmers market, I was told, unofficially, that UHS will be increasing its fertilizer prices significantly. We know from past experience that the cost of plastic and other supplies  rises with oil prices, but lags as inventories clear out. This means that Hawai‘i farmers’ production costs will be rising. Imported food costs will also start rising as high oil prices work their way through the system.

Our alternate energy Farm Loan Bill will help to stabilize some of the Hawai‘i farmer’s costs and help them become competitive.

“Our fundamental assumptions about the continuing availability of cheap oil to fuel the American lifestyle are being tested. Last year the topic of peak oil—the idea that the world is approaching a maximum limit to oil production—was virtually taboo in polite company and business journals.

This November, however, the Wall Street Journal ran a Page One piece: “Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production.” If that’s not the definition of peak oil, I’m not sure what is.”

Sunday’s New York Times says that some of the world’s largest oil exporters will no longer export in five to ten years because their own growing economies will use more oil products domestically.

Last week in a landmark speech, Fatih Birol, Head Economist for the International Energy Agency (IEA), was asked the following question, in response to oil-producing countries’ assertions that they would be able to produce an extra 25 million barrels per day. (Note: Until this point, the IEA was notoriously optimistic.)

The question: “Where will the projected extra 25 mb/d oil production come from?”

His response: “If the supply turns out to be less than this, we are in serious trouble. If these projects do not come online, the wheels will fall off our energy system.”

Yes, those were his exact words.

I am the only one from Hawai‘i who attended the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference held in Houston in October. (ASPO is a non-partisan organization with 25 national chapters worldwide). At that time, the mainstream media had largely ignored the world oil supply shortage. Since then, in just the last few weeks, the topic is starting to make headlines in many papers and has become mainstream. All who were at the conference knew how serious the situation was. Now, maybe we can start to deal with the problem.

“For practical purposes, the exact date of “peak” (or more likely “plateau”) oil—whether 2005, 2012 or 2030 as the optimists predict—is immaterial; we have already rolled over to a sellers’ market.

Oil production has been essentially flat—about 85 million barrels a day—for the past two years, despite soaring prices. Strong demand growth in India and China was accommodated only because poorer African and Asian countries were priced out of the market. There is a growing realization that it’s not going to be cheap or easy to grow either capacity or production much beyond the present rates.” 

We know that the world population has increased in parallel to oil production. This is because oil allowed cheap food to be produced. More food equals more people. Now that the oil supply is starting to become short, food will also become short. And people who cannot afford it may not get the food they need.

Here in Hawai‘i we import more than 80 percent of the food we eat. We need to start now in order to produce enough food for all of our people here in Hawai‘i.

“It doesn’t take a crystal ball to predict higher energy prices, greater volatility and periodic supply shortfalls on the 1- to 5-year horizon. Spare oil production capacity is sorely lacking, making the system vulnerable to supply and price shock. This specter is reason enough for families, businesses and local governments to start planning—now!—to dramatically reduce their exposure. We need conservation, but we also need emergency preparedness plans for dealing with the very real potential of disruptions to fuel and heating oil delivery.” 

I am starting to meet more and more people who are doing things now to protect themselves against an uncertain future. One person at the farmers market told me he bought his parents five acres so they could become self-sufficient in terms of food production. He was a manager of a fertilizer company!

Hawaiians have always felt that self-sufficiency was no big deal. For them, it is a given that shipping will sooner or later be interrupted. They can remember when their grandparents were self-sufficient. People back then had a few animals, a taro patch and some ulu trees and they traded. To Hawaiians, it is not difficult—it is a lifestyle.

Someone recently asked me if I knew how expensive sheets are. I admitted that I have no idea. He told me that they purchased a few recently because sheets are made from petroleum products and prices will only go higher. My mom complains about how high canned goods and rice prices are. I know this is just the start. Prices will go much higher. It will be a challenging transition period. I worry that the farmers who are least able to pass on price increases may become discouraged and quit farming.

In order to prepare ourselves for a future of uncertainty, Hamakua Springs Country Farms is planning to make biodiesel on a small scale.  In case there are supply disruptions, we don’t want to wait in gas lines.

“In the longer term—the next 20 to 30 years—we will have no choice but to transition to a reduced petroleum economy. There are compelling reasons why it makes sense to start doing that NOW, rather than waiting until we are 100% certain we’ve passed the point of maximum oil output:

Long lead times for large capital investments. It takes at least 15-30 years to bring revolutionary ideas from research and development to widespread usage. It takes similar time to plan, permit and build major infrastructure—like mass transit or new energy plants, LNG terminals, etc.”

(Garbage to energy?)

“Competition for scarce resources will drive up the future price of raw materials: The building blocks of progress—fossil fuel energy, metals, land—are more abundant and cheaper now than they will be in the future.

Resource nationalism means that certain strategic materials may not be available for import—at any price—in the not-too-distant future. We should reconsider the future value of energy, raw materials, farmland and water.”

We should consider what might happen if oil shipments to Hawai‘i are disrupted. It makes one wonder if we should not be producing our electricity from geothermal, wind, solar, hydro, the ocean, etc., all of which are available naturally here in Hawai‘i, and concentrate on using liquid fuels for transportation.

Why should we be relying on liquid fuels for electricity? Liquid fuels are not natural resources. If we do this, we cannot give Hawai‘i’s small businesses the competitive advantage derived from our natural resources. For example, if we relied on geothermal for most of our electricity, wouldn’t we have a competitive advantage over certain products imported from the mainland that rely heavily on oil for manufacturing? To the extent we could export those items we could still have a complex vibrant society as the dollars would circulate in Hawai‘i rather than being sent away.

On our farm, we are shifting direction. We will use hydro and solar to power electric motors, and replace as many internal combustion engines as possible. For example, we will use electric forklifts instead of diesel. We will use biodiesel primarily for our delivery trucks. It is important that the food we produce is transported dependably and on time.

Unconventional oil won’t bail us out: Canadian tar sands and U.S. oil shale resources may “rival Saudi Arabia,” but they can’t scale up production to match. Oil shales will be lucky to produce 100,000 barrels/day—a 7-minute supply at current U.S. consumption rates—by 2020. Doubling tar sands production to 4 million barrels/day by 2020 (if possible) won’t even offset depletion of existing oil production.

Other parts of the country use oil, natural gas, nuclear power and hydro for their electricity generation. In Hawai‘i, we use mostly imported oil. HECO is running TV ads saying that they are starting to use renewable energy. But renewable energy by itself does nothing for our energy costs. We are hoping the utility can figure out how to translate our free Hawaiian energy sources into cheaper electricity.

The impacts of Peak Oil will be hardest felt at the local and state level. The solution lies in revitalizing local manufacturing, farming and business around the emerging reality of constrained fossil fuel supplies. Peak Oil gives us the opportunity to strengthen and rebuild our local economies and to restore forgotten American—and Hawaiian—values such as ingenuity, resourcefulness and community.

Older people I talk to all say how good it was in the old days. Then, the sugar plantation towns all had company stores, theaters, bakeries, pool halls, boxing teams, etc. There were even medical clinics and transportation back and forth. The plantations must have done something right, as the older people have fond memories of those times.

Before that, the Hawaiians had a thriving sustainable society based on the aloha spirit—and it worked very well.

I think it is important to empower individuals. The farm loan alternative energy bill we are introducing into the legislature will empower individual farmers. Instead of relying only on industrial-sized power plants, there must be ways to incentivize individuals, and especially farmers, to generate electricity at strategic times to inject into the electric grid.

Large-scale bioenergy farming may be economical where there is flat ground and where the infrastructure is in place. But for many, taking the direct route by generating electricity and getting a check from the electric utility makes more sense than growing palm trees, fertilizing, harvesting, hauling, squeezing and shipping the juice to refineries and then getting a check. Incentivizing and empowering individuals helps to spread risk. Long supply chains and just-in-time inventories have made us vulnerable.

NASA incorporates multiple redundancies before they send astronauts into space. We, too, should spread our risks.  

Sally Odland currently administers a division of research geophysicists at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia
University. Sally holds advanced degrees in Geology and Business
Administration. Her MBA dissertation, “Strategic Choices for Managing the Transition from Peak Oil to a Reduced Petroleum Economy” is online here. She serves as a volunteer Board Member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-USA).

Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources, Sustainability

Future

Peter Goodchild, at countercurrents.org, paints a bleak scenario about the future in a world of depleted oil supplies:

The decline in the world’s oil supply offers no sudden dramatic event that would appeal to the writer of “apocalyptic” science fiction: no mushroom clouds, no flying saucers, no giant meteorites. The future will be just like today, only tougher. Oil depletion is basically just a matter of overpopulation – too many people and not enough resources. The most serious consequence will be a lack of food. The problem of oil therefore leads, in an apparently mundane fashion, to the problem of farming.

To what extent could food be produced in a world without fossil fuels? In the year 2000, humanity consumed about 30 billion barrels of oil, but the supply is starting to run out; without oil and natural gas, there will be no fuel, no asphalt, no plastics, no chemical fertilizer. Most people in modern industrial civilization live on food that was bought from a local supermarket, but such food will not always be available. Agriculture in the future will be largely a “family affair”: without motorized vehicles, food will have to be produced not far from where it was consumed. But what crops should be grown? How much land would be needed? Where could people be supported by such methods of agriculture?

Though Goodchild’s portrayal looks bleak, here in Hawai‘i we have a great opportunity to transition to different ways of doing things. These ideas come to my mind:

1. If oil is equal to energy, what alternate energy could we substitute? How about geothermal? The energy is just coming out of the ground. How about water in a river running down hill? That’s potential energy. It rains 140 inches per year at our farm. What if we caught water and dug an injection well and captured the energy at the bottom? Instead of the internal combustion engine, we use electrical motors.

2. Can the utilities help us produce food? I don’t think so. It’s about costs and they have the highest costs in the country. We have to look for other ways.

3. What about fertilizer? Synthetic fertilizer is made from air and natural gas. Air is made up of 78% nitrogen. It may be possible that the geothermal company, using air, sand and geothermal energy, could manufacture calcium nitrate. Could a wind farm make fertilizer? We need to ask these questions.

Because oil was so cheap for so long, we have even forgotten that the sun’s energy has value. Here in Hawai‘i we can grow crops all year long. And as oil prices rise, the value of the energy coming from the sun will also rise. This means Hawai‘i farmers will become more competitive.

When I returned from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference in Houston in mid-October, things seemed bleak. But as time goes by, I realize we have many resources and opportunities to transition successfully.

My Pop used to say there are a thousand reasons why, “No can.” I am only looking for one reason why, “CAN!!”

Sustainability

Modern Ahupua‘a

Richard and I stumbled upon this website by the non-profit group Pacific Worlds. The extensive site provides a thought-provoking look at many topics, including the idea of a modern ahupua’a, which Richard too has talked about.

From its site:

Pacific Worlds serves two roles: first, it is a vehicle for cultural preservation and the perpetuation of indigenous traditions in the Pacific. In this role, it presents Pacific Islands—from Pacific-Islander perspectives—to the entire world. Whether you are a tourist or a scholar, this site will transform your understanding of Pacific cultures and environments. Second and more specifically, Pacific Worlds comprises an indigenous-geography education project serving Hawai‘i-Pacific Schools.

Here’s a snippet of what they write about ahupua‘a:

“Ahupua‘a is holistic,” Stephen Kubota says, elaborating the vision of the Ahupua‘a Action Alliance: “In Hawaiian culture, you had kahuna who knew the forests, knew the trees, knew the geology. The chiefs could draw upon the collective wisdom of the kahuna to help determine what was an appropriate construction project. Today, I see a modern ahupua‘a. It means using the knowledge and tools we have today.

“Some argue that using an ahupua‘a system today poses challenges simply because our society is not organized around subsistence, which was the whole premise of the ahupua‘a system. Others have said, how can you use an ahupua‘a system in modern Hawai‘i when we import 70% of our food? Moreover, the people within the ahupua‘a shared common resources, but today so many of these are now either degraded or sequestered in private lands.

“But if we look at the underlying values, principles, and practices, those have not changed. Certain accepted features are retained, even in Western law: water as a public trust resource, public access rights to forest, to hiking, to gathering. Those are acknowledged even in modern Western laws, especially in the State of Hawai‘i.

We both also liked this, from the same document:

“When I say ahupua‘a today, I’m talking about a holistic relationship, a kinship with all the living creatures that occupy the place where you live–including the spirits of the ancestors. There’s no Western term for this concept. There’s a phrase that I’m comfortable with for now, it’s ecosystem restoration, and those two words together carry the meaning. Ecosystem includes humans and all the non-human factors. Restoration is a really important concept because it has become a science, it becomes a policy. And in restoration policy, you are admitting that there was something damaged.

“The toolkit for restoration is very clear: you can’t restore if you don’t know what was there before. You have to use historic photographs, oral histories, and research. It’s kind of like the doctor-patient relationship: before I prescribe this, I’d better do a patient history to see if you’re tolerant to these drugs. Is it a genetic disorder, or a bacterial infection? We require some very high standards before a doctor prescribes medicine.

“I think ecosystem restoration is beginning to impose those kinds of standards on how we manage the environment. You may find that this area was once a taro patch, but because of all the changes, today it’s a reservoir. It may be best to leave it as a reservoir.”

There is so much more at this impressive and well-researched site. Regarding this island, they look in depth at Kawaihae. Links on the Kawaihae page send you to sections labeled arrival, native places, the sea, the land, footprints, visitors, memories, onwards. There are also sections on people, ahupua’a, community, re-planting, sacred sites, pau and language – and much more. It’s fascinating to look around and see all the significant people, cultural information and resources they have drawn together.

Richard points out that, regarding the modern ahupua‘a, they write “some people call it ‘back to the future.’”

He asks: “Isn’t that a lot like ‘moving forward by looking backward?’”

Biofuel, Community, Eating Locally, Farm Stand, Peak Oil, Sustainability

Tour de Farm

I tagged along Saturday morning while Richard gave a really interesting farm tour to some University of Hawai‘i at Hilo students. They listened and asked questions and seemed very engaged.

Asisstant Professor Jon Price brought 12 of his Introduction to Environmental Studies students, and Assistant Professor Kathryn Besio brought a similar number from her Food and Societies course, which is offered through the university’s geography department. In addition, there were a couple students present from the Keaholoa STEM program.

Jon Price told his Environmental Studies students that they have covered agriculture, energy and biodiversity in class, and that during the tour he wanted them to think about how those subjects relate to each other, and come to some conclusions. I think Richard gave them a lot to work with.

He took them around the tomato packing house, the banana operation where Williams bananas were hanging in neat rows and to see the banana fields and some of the greenhouses.

“Everything you’re looking at now,” he told the students, motioning to the farm, “was planned five years ago. You’re not looking at today. You’re looking at yesterday.” He told them that he plans for five years out—or 10, or 20.

Yesterday, he explained—five years ago—oil was $30/barrel. Today it’s almost $100/barrel. He talked about how five years ago he was already thinking about sustainability and getting away from oil dependence.

He talked about how industrial agricultural—the big operations on the mainland—largely rely on oil for their refrigeration, packing, etc., which keeps up the prices of food that is imported to Hawai‘i. “Eventually,” he said, “as oil prices continue getting more expensive, and imported food prices keep increasing, local farmers will be in a better position.”

These days at the farm, he explained, they are working on “tomorrow.” He talked about the hydroelectric plant that’s in the works at Hamakua Springs, which will use the farm’s abundant spring and stream water to generate enough power to run 15 refrigerated containers around the clock.

And about biodiesel. Banana waste, supplemented with oil, can be turned into biodiesel fuel, he said.

He talked about working with the farm’s local community and having family units growing different produce at the farm. The farm will help, in terms of pest control and food safety, and if the produce is up to standards the neighbor farmers can market it at the upcoming Hamakua Springs farm stand.

He talked about the farm stand he’s opening soon, so farmers who work with Hamakua Springs will have an outlet for their products and so people from the community won’t have to drive into town as often.

He talked about the importance of knowing your neighbors, and trading, say, the ‘ulu you grow for whatever it is they have. He talked about how, in a future where gasoline prices are exorbitant, we might change our driving habits and our entertainment habits too, and entertain more at home by cooking big meals for family and friends.

Charlotte Romo, the farm’s hydroponics specialist, spoke a little about her background as a crewmember in the Biosphere, where they produced enough food on 1/3 of an acre to support 7-10 people.

She talked about the hydroponic system at the farm and how intensive it is. For instance, the farm uses 450 acres to produce four million pounds of bananas per year, as opposed to its 2 million pounds of tomatoes, which grow on only 15 acres.

Richard told them that before it was about making money; but now it’s about “How are we going to feed the people? We have 1.5 million people on this island. If we use hydroelectric and grow more food, we may be able to feed more people.”

“This is about common sense,” he said. “Look at the problem, and don’t get stuck on what others say.” He summed it up on an optimistic note: “It sounds grim, but the harder things are, the more opportunities come up.”

Hawai‘i is fortunate, Richard told the students, because we have sun energy all year long. “I recently attended a conference in Houston,” he said, “on peak oil, and when I left I didn’t have the nerve to tell the people there that we have energy from the sun all year long.”

Richard told the students he is confident that we can start educating people and making changes now to cope with an oil crisis that will gradually affect most aspects of our lives. “From what I see,” he said, “I feel the future is bright because of people from your generation.”

Food Security, Peak Oil, Sustainability

Food Is More Important Than Oil

At the ASPO conference I just attended, it was projected that the peak of the world’s oil production (after which time, demand will exceed supply and prices will rise sharply) may occur in 2011 or so. As do some others, though, I think the peak may have already taken place. This article, entitled Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, is bleak.

A graph in this article projects a permanent decline in the United States’ gross domestic product because of limitations on oil and natural gas. This assumes it would not, at that point, be “business as usual.”

At the conference, I met Gail Tverberg, who wrote that article. She is a very soft-spoken and thoughtful person. She made this complex subject easy to understand.

I mentioned to her the connection between oil and food and she included it in this morning’s post. She wrote to me yesterday saying that, in some ways, food is more important than oil. RIGHT! No more food, no more people.

We are incredibly fortunate to live in Hawai‘i, where the sun shines all year long. In the old days, the sun provided 100 percent of the energy we needed to grow our food. Cheap oil has camouflaged that. But as oil prices rise, sunshine is still free.

Farmers can use some help in developing alternate energy sources to help them with their work. The Hawai‘i Farm Bureau has included in its legislative package a new Department of Ag farm loan program that gives them this help.

Farmers cannot wait for public utilities to bring down energy costs. I trust individual farmers more to do what they need to do. Think small-scale bio diesel. There are other ways as well—things like windmills, hydroelectric, solar, etc.

The more one farmer can produce, the more vibrant our society will be post-oil decline. We do not want to go back to where everyone has to fish, or farm, to feed their family. It all has to do with how much help a farmer can get from alternate energy to help him with production.

Our challenge now is to see how we can get Hawai‘i farmers to grow more food for our people. As imported food prices rise, I believe that local farming will become more profitable. That, and the proliferation of farmers markets, will make farming profitable.

I am very aware of the Cuba and North Korea models. Both were dependent on oil supplies from the former Soviet Union. When it collapsed, they had to fend for themselves. As a result, North Korea has widespread famine and crop failures, while Cuba has survived quite well. I think that the basic difference is that Cuba has more energy from sunshine than North Korea. Still, I think that we can improve on the Cuba model.

I believe that we should send a hopeful message that although oil is becoming more scarce, and prices of our imported food are rising, there are things that we can do. Such as:

• Landscape with plants that make food. Garden where possible and plant fruit trees, etc. ‘Ulu trees come to mind, because they provide an abundant supply of a tasty starch food.

• I think houses should have waste water lines plumbed in, so people can reuse the water for gardens. Then farmers will produce for people who cannot grow food themselves.

• People need to start thinking about getting to know their neighbors, plan what they can trade, and get closer to their families. Kids can have chores taking care of the plants. This is not a bad thing. We kids in my family fed the chickens before we went to school.

No problem; we can do this.

The Sustainability 2050 project that the state of Hawai‘i is preparing right now will be very valuable. But it needs to include Five Year Plans, because things are moving fast. The sustainability council also needs a strong Ag person on the council.

And food should be the top priority. We need to do an assessment of the number and composition of calories necessary to maintain a population of 1.5 million. Andrew Hashimoto, Dean of the University of Hawai‘i College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources, mentioned something like 2 billion calories per year. We should compare this number of needed calories to what we are able to provide now—how many calories’ worth of food we grow in Hawai‘i now—from the point of view of human nutrition. This will give us a road map to follow.

I am optimistic that we can successfully achieve these goals and show the rest of the nation the Aloha way.

Current Affairs, Peak Oil, Sustainability

ASPO Conference

I’m in Houston to attend the Produce Marketing Association tradeshow, which started last Friday.

I decided to stay on for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference, which started Wednesday. ASPO is a non-partisan, non-profit association dedicated to the study of “Peak Oil.” That’s a term describing the last point at which the world’s supply of oil can accomodate the demand for oil. After that, demand will permanently exceed supply.

I became aware of ASPO while scanning the Internet. Its supply-and-demand, common sense approach to the problem resonated with me, so I started to read its daily report. I followed those reports and came to the conclusion that ASPO does offer a balanced approach.

When I learned ASPO’s U.S. conference was occurring just after the PMA trade show and in the same city, I decided to attend. So here I am.

This conference is, by far, the most interesting and important one I have ever attended. Its panel members and presenters have stellar credentials—they are former CIA officials, executives from major oil companies, investment advisors, university researchers, etc. The presentations have been full of substance. I’ve sat through presentations from 8 a.m. to 9 p.m. without wanting to skip out.

I am now absolutely certain that ASPO is credible and that its web information update on the Oil Drum is also credible.

A relatively few giant oil fields produce most of the world’s oil. There have not been any significant new oil fields discovered in the last 20 years, and the older, super-giant oil fields are declining in production. Discoveries of new, smaller oil fields are barely keeping up with the fields that are declining.

The big problem is that the demand for oil is increasing at an alarming rate. China is growing at an incredible rate. It has 10 times our population, and right now only 16 percent of its people own cars. And then there’s India, too. Soon we will reach the point where oil production cannot keep up with world demand for oil.

No one knows when, but ASPO feels this will occur around 2012, which is just over four years from now. Others think it will occur 10 years later. Many think that it has already happened.

No one debates whether or not Peak Oil will occur—they only disagree about when.

Regardless of when, it is prudent to take action before we get to that point. We need to spread the word that we are close to a serious turning point regarding our oil supply. And we need to get people’s advice about what actions we should take.

More than 60 percent of America’s oil use is for transportation. Can we adjust to our gas prices rising four-fold? Agriculture, too, depends on fossil fuels, as do fertilizer, chemicals, packaging and transportation. Therefore, imported food prices will start to rise.

Can we make the adjustments we need to do? Will we be able to feed Hawai‘i’s people?

In Hawai‘i, I believe we can make the adjustments we need to keep our food distribution dependable. But it is going to require thinking “outside the box.” We all can do this!

Eating Locally, Sustainability

Edible Hawaiian Islands

There’s a new magazine out there—Edible Hawaiian Islands. Have you seen it?

Here’s a description:

“Filled with engaging stories, enticing photography and art, our mission is to celebrate family farmers, bakers, fisherman, ranchers, poultry farmers, local chefs and the rest of the community for their dedication to producing the highest quality fresh and seasonal foods. We want to highlight those efforts towards a more sustainable and safe food system in The Hawaiian Islands.“

Sound familiar? The magazine has already featured Hamakua Springs, and writes about many others who practice the same sorts of things we preach.

Check it out. And if you’re interested, subscription information is here.

Sustainability

Suppy and Demand

The Houston Chronicle just ran this op-ed piece titled Don’t Drain Our Energy Lifeblood, with the subtitle: “Domestic exploration is energy security 101.” It says that Americans burn nearly a half billion gallons of gasoline every day, and that 65 percent of the oil that makes this gasoline is imported. Also, that worldwide energy consumption is anticipated to increase by 40 percent in the next 25 years—while the widespread use of alternate energy is still decades away.

The article argues for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, as well as in the offshore continental shelf. The revenue generated, it says, could be used for alternative energy development.

“The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge may offer oil reserves of as much as 16 billion barrels — which is comparable to the world’s largest oil fields. Even though the environmental impact would be minuscule, Congress insists on keeping the refuge and other potential domestic resources off-limits and ignores the fact that modern exploration techniques could limit drilling in the refuge to a 2,000-acre footprint, or not even half of 1 percent of the refuge’s 19 million acres.“

It concludes that our country’s energy dependency makes us dangerously vulnerable in economic terms and compromises our national security.

Public policies that support, rather than impede, efforts to increase responsible domestic production are what America needs to retake control of its energy lifeblood from rogue dictators and banana republics.

The article’s author is Elizabeth Ames Jones, immediate past chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the state’s oil and gas, propane, mining and intrastate pipeline industries.

It got my attention, appearing as it did the Sunday immediately before the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference will be held in Houston — and just before oil prices reached more than $86/barrel, a record high. It strikes me that as world demand for oil rises in the years ahead, there may well be a gap between the energy our country can get from oil and the energy we can get from alternate sources.

The Queensland, Australia government also just published a report acknowledging that “Peak Oil” — “the potential peaking of world oil supplies caused by natural field decline” — is a real concern and will happen within 10 years. Together with the op-ed piece above coming out of the gas and oil capital of the U.S., as well as the upcoming ASPO conference, I think these are all significant indicators.