Category Archives: Peak Oil

Food Security, Peak Oil, Sustainability

Food Is More Important Than Oil

At the ASPO conference I just attended, it was projected that the peak of the world’s oil production (after which time, demand will exceed supply and prices will rise sharply) may occur in 2011 or so. As do some others, though, I think the peak may have already taken place. This article, entitled Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, is bleak.

A graph in this article projects a permanent decline in the United States’ gross domestic product because of limitations on oil and natural gas. This assumes it would not, at that point, be “business as usual.”

At the conference, I met Gail Tverberg, who wrote that article. She is a very soft-spoken and thoughtful person. She made this complex subject easy to understand.

I mentioned to her the connection between oil and food and she included it in this morning’s post. She wrote to me yesterday saying that, in some ways, food is more important than oil. RIGHT! No more food, no more people.

We are incredibly fortunate to live in Hawai‘i, where the sun shines all year long. In the old days, the sun provided 100 percent of the energy we needed to grow our food. Cheap oil has camouflaged that. But as oil prices rise, sunshine is still free.

Farmers can use some help in developing alternate energy sources to help them with their work. The Hawai‘i Farm Bureau has included in its legislative package a new Department of Ag farm loan program that gives them this help.

Farmers cannot wait for public utilities to bring down energy costs. I trust individual farmers more to do what they need to do. Think small-scale bio diesel. There are other ways as well—things like windmills, hydroelectric, solar, etc.

The more one farmer can produce, the more vibrant our society will be post-oil decline. We do not want to go back to where everyone has to fish, or farm, to feed their family. It all has to do with how much help a farmer can get from alternate energy to help him with production.

Our challenge now is to see how we can get Hawai‘i farmers to grow more food for our people. As imported food prices rise, I believe that local farming will become more profitable. That, and the proliferation of farmers markets, will make farming profitable.

I am very aware of the Cuba and North Korea models. Both were dependent on oil supplies from the former Soviet Union. When it collapsed, they had to fend for themselves. As a result, North Korea has widespread famine and crop failures, while Cuba has survived quite well. I think that the basic difference is that Cuba has more energy from sunshine than North Korea. Still, I think that we can improve on the Cuba model.

I believe that we should send a hopeful message that although oil is becoming more scarce, and prices of our imported food are rising, there are things that we can do. Such as:

• Landscape with plants that make food. Garden where possible and plant fruit trees, etc. ‘Ulu trees come to mind, because they provide an abundant supply of a tasty starch food.

• I think houses should have waste water lines plumbed in, so people can reuse the water for gardens. Then farmers will produce for people who cannot grow food themselves.

• People need to start thinking about getting to know their neighbors, plan what they can trade, and get closer to their families. Kids can have chores taking care of the plants. This is not a bad thing. We kids in my family fed the chickens before we went to school.

No problem; we can do this.

The Sustainability 2050 project that the state of Hawai‘i is preparing right now will be very valuable. But it needs to include Five Year Plans, because things are moving fast. The sustainability council also needs a strong Ag person on the council.

And food should be the top priority. We need to do an assessment of the number and composition of calories necessary to maintain a population of 1.5 million. Andrew Hashimoto, Dean of the University of Hawai‘i College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources, mentioned something like 2 billion calories per year. We should compare this number of needed calories to what we are able to provide now—how many calories’ worth of food we grow in Hawai‘i now—from the point of view of human nutrition. This will give us a road map to follow.

I am optimistic that we can successfully achieve these goals and show the rest of the nation the Aloha way.

Current Affairs, Peak Oil, Sustainability

ASPO Conference

I’m in Houston to attend the Produce Marketing Association tradeshow, which started last Friday.

I decided to stay on for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference, which started Wednesday. ASPO is a non-partisan, non-profit association dedicated to the study of “Peak Oil.” That’s a term describing the last point at which the world’s supply of oil can accomodate the demand for oil. After that, demand will permanently exceed supply.

I became aware of ASPO while scanning the Internet. Its supply-and-demand, common sense approach to the problem resonated with me, so I started to read its daily report. I followed those reports and came to the conclusion that ASPO does offer a balanced approach.

When I learned ASPO’s U.S. conference was occurring just after the PMA trade show and in the same city, I decided to attend. So here I am.

This conference is, by far, the most interesting and important one I have ever attended. Its panel members and presenters have stellar credentials—they are former CIA officials, executives from major oil companies, investment advisors, university researchers, etc. The presentations have been full of substance. I’ve sat through presentations from 8 a.m. to 9 p.m. without wanting to skip out.

I am now absolutely certain that ASPO is credible and that its web information update on the Oil Drum is also credible.

A relatively few giant oil fields produce most of the world’s oil. There have not been any significant new oil fields discovered in the last 20 years, and the older, super-giant oil fields are declining in production. Discoveries of new, smaller oil fields are barely keeping up with the fields that are declining.

The big problem is that the demand for oil is increasing at an alarming rate. China is growing at an incredible rate. It has 10 times our population, and right now only 16 percent of its people own cars. And then there’s India, too. Soon we will reach the point where oil production cannot keep up with world demand for oil.

No one knows when, but ASPO feels this will occur around 2012, which is just over four years from now. Others think it will occur 10 years later. Many think that it has already happened.

No one debates whether or not Peak Oil will occur—they only disagree about when.

Regardless of when, it is prudent to take action before we get to that point. We need to spread the word that we are close to a serious turning point regarding our oil supply. And we need to get people’s advice about what actions we should take.

More than 60 percent of America’s oil use is for transportation. Can we adjust to our gas prices rising four-fold? Agriculture, too, depends on fossil fuels, as do fertilizer, chemicals, packaging and transportation. Therefore, imported food prices will start to rise.

Can we make the adjustments we need to do? Will we be able to feed Hawai‘i’s people?

In Hawai‘i, I believe we can make the adjustments we need to keep our food distribution dependable. But it is going to require thinking “outside the box.” We all can do this!

Current Affairs, Peak Oil, Sustainability

Frog in the Pot

Lately I’ve been talking a lot here about how rising oil prices are worrying me, and what we’re doing at the farm in response. Today I want to back up a little bit and tell you about how I have become aware of this, and why I’m worried.

For the past few months, something has been bothering me. I’ve been feeling like a frog in a pot on the stove. As the temperature is increased a little bit at a time, he does not notice the water getting hot until he is, well, done. “Hmm, it’s getting warmer—kinda cozy. But, wait. How come bubbles are starting to rise? I’m getting outta here!”

If I were a frog I would have jumped out of the pot and landed on the floor, and I would be heading for the door by now.

What’s been bothering me is something that has become known as “Peak Oil.” It’s when the demand for oil exceeds the ability to flow enough to meet demand. And we all know that when demand exceeds supply, prices go up.

When we started planning to diversify our business five years ago, oil prices were $30 per barrel. Now, five years later, oil is more than $80 per barrel. On CNBC this morning, the business channel, they were wondering if oil will go over $84 per barrel and set another record. I heard someone on the program say that $4 per gallon gas is in our not too distant future.

Since we started our diversified agriculture five years ago, conventional wisdom has been that nothing unusual is happening. But we have noticed that the phrase “fuel adjustment” has been added to our language.

In our business, we have noticed that fertilizer, chemicals, packaging and transportation is more expensive than before. But the news says that inflation is under control and everything is all right and the stock market is at near record levels. So if everything is all right, how come fertilizer costs so much more now? And how come plastic clamshells and plastic bags cost so much? How come supplies of all types cost so much?

Lately I’ve realized that petroleum products are involved in almost every facet of our lives, though we don’t always realize it. So when prices rise, it’s easy for us to miss that it is due to a rise in petroleum prices. It’s like the frog, sitting in a pot on the stove, who doesn’t realize that the temperature is going up.

I knew that agricultural costs were steadily rising, but what raised alarm bells for me was when I complained to a lawyer friend that the rise in oil prices was affecting us in many ways. He said, “Oh yeah, and the mom-&-pop plate lunch places are suffering because the plastic containers and utensils are rising in price and they cannot easily pass the costs on.”

Right then, I realized that rising oil prices were affecting many people in many businesses. So I started reading a lot of articles about oil supply and demand. That was my wake-up call. I decided right then to “jump out of the pot of warming water.”

Frankly, there are a lot of alarmist websites about “Peak Oil,” which sell books and videos about “the end of the world as we know it,” and about how to protect oneself. Looking at some of those websites, one could easily dismiss Peak Oil as a made-up problem being touted by those who are trying to make a buck by scaring people.

But that wouldn’t be correct. “Peak Oil” is not at all merely some sort of alarmist nonsense. It is nothing more than oil prices rising higher and higher. The question is: “How will we adapt?”

A highly credible site on the subject, if you’d like to read more, is that of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). ASPO is a “Non-profit, Non-partisan Research and Public Education Initiative to Address America’s Peak Oil Energy Challenge.”

Its board of directors is impressive, as is its advisory board, “a volunteer group of recognized experts in energy, science, geology and business,” consisting of petroleum geologists, physicists, retired government analysts and more. Here is the association’s mission statement.

Where am I going with all this? I think oil prices will continue rising steadily, and as a result, things will start to change in ways we have not yet considered. But we will adapt by car pooling, using clotheslines to dry our clothes, catching drinking water, etc.

I am mostly concerned, as prices rise, about our most basic need—the ability to feed ourselves. Before industrial agriculture we relied on the sun to provide one hundred percent of the energy to grow our food; directly for the greens, and indirectly for the animals that ate the greens. Industrial agriculture relied on cheap oil, as low as $3 per barrel, to fuel its growth. As oil prices rise, more and more of our income will go to buy food.

However, I don’t believe in the doomsday scenarios like on those alarmist sites. I believe we can absolutely influence the course of events to come.

We are lucky here, because we know that the ancient Hawaiians were able to sustain a population that was nearly the size of today’s population. We know it can be done. That knowledge, along with modern technology, should allow us to produce enough food for this entire island if we put our minds to it, and contribute to the needs of the state, as well.

We also need to engage youngsters—our next generation—at the earliest levels. We should frame the issue and pose the question to elementary school kids: “How can you help us feed Hawai‘i?” I can see them jumping on their computers and proudly pointing out different methods that people in other parts of the world use to grow food.

This is one of my missions now—to make people aware that we need to address this issue, and to show how it can be done; how all farmers, large and small, working together can make Hawai‘i self-sufficient in food once more.

We can do this!

Current Affairs, Peak Oil, Renewable Energy Sources, Sustainability

Peak Oil 2

The United States’ Government Accountability Office (GAO) has an interesting report about peak oil concerns here.

This is a time of increasing concern over the security of our oil supplies—in particular, the fear that, after 150 years of growth, the industry is now facing what is known as “Peak Oil.” That’s the point at which the production of petroleum reaches its maximum before entering a terminal decline.

The big question right now is “When will demand permanently exceed supply?” It used to be that the year 2030 seemed a reasonable estimate. Now, more than a few people are saying it could be as soon as two years from now. Some are even saying we may have already passed the peak.

It is not a question of whether or not we have oil reserves. There is a lot of oil in the ground. It’s more a matter of whether we can replace expiring oil fields with new production in a timely manner. Many of the professionals feel that we cannot. Furthermore, oil reserves of the OPEC producers are suspect. There are indications that they don’t have the reserves they say they have. We don’t know because they won’t show us proof.

And so what will happen? Likely, prices will rise slowly and steadily as oil supplies decline. People will probably adjust their behavior and conserve. Whatever happens, it seems certain that supply will not be able to keep up with demand.

Fertilizer, packaging and other farm expenses have risen steadily over the last few years. I wonder if we have already reached “Peak Oil.” If that has occurred, there’s no better place to be than here in Hawai‘i. We are fortunate to have abundant natural resources that we can use to generate electricity. If we react in a smart way, we should be fine.

Maybe we should hedge our bets and start to position ourselves for “Peak Oil” sooner, rather than later.

Biofuel, Current Affairs, Peak Oil, Sustainability

Peak Oil

1 Comment

Lately there has been much discussion about energy security—or lack of security—and what, if anything, we can do about it. The term “peak oil” means we are at or very near the point where maximum oil production equals our oil demand. After the peak, demand will outstrip supply.

We all agree that this is true. We differ only about how bad it will be. Some people are predicting the collapse of civilization. Others think we can make the necessary adjustments.

We in Hawai‘i are especially vulnerable. In addition to the prospect of having to pay unbearable fossil fuel costs in the future, we currently import more than 70 percent of our food—a highly fossil-fuel-dependent method of taking care of the basic need of feeding ourselves.

We have abundant natural resources available to us that could help us find a solution to the “peak oil” problem. But we need to take action NOW!

Solar, hydro, wind and geothermal power are available to us on each island, in varying degrees, and they are not tied to fossil fuel costs. They can all be converted to electricity. With electricity, we can produce food and get work done. And with electric cars, we can also get from one place to another.

What about bio-diesel and ethanol?

It does not look as though farmers would work for the returns that these fuels would bring. For example, ethanol and biodiesel can be brought into Hawai‘i for approximately $2 per gallon. Presumably that is what a farmer would be paid for a gallon of bio-fuel, which weighs roughly 8 pounds.

Therefore a farmer would get approximately 25 cents/pound of liquid bio-fuel. If it took, say, two pounds of a farmer’s product to make one pound of bio-fuel, that would mean a Hawai‘i farmer would get 12.5 cents per pound for growing bio-fuel crops. Under those conditions, farmers would not grow bio-fuel crops.

We may have to be content with buying them from overseas.

Truly, the answer is that we should be focusing on our natural resources as sources of electricity. And we should focus on supporting our farmers, as well—on every island, at every elevation: windward and leeward, big and small. We need to know that we can produce the food we need here.

We can do this.