Category Archives: Peak Oil

The World Energy Outlook for 2010: We Must Change Our Behavior

The International Energy Association (IEA) just issued its World Energy Outlook (WEO) for 2010. Image003

This graph shows that oil production from presently producing oil fields is projected to decline from around 65 million barrels/day to 20 million barrels/day in 2010. That’s 45 million barrels per day less coming out of today’s aging oil fields.

It’s approximately 1.8 million barrels/day less every year. From a previous WEO report, it was estimated that oil fields decline annually, due to old age, at around 4 million barrels per year. In order for our oil supply to stay steady until 2035, we would need to find 2.2 million barrels every year from now until 2035. This means we need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia every 4.5 to 5 years. That’s five Saudi Arabias in 25 years.

We know that we’ve been using two to three times more oil than we’ve been finding for the past 20 to 30 years. We must change our behavior.

Here in Hawai‘i, we have many renewable options. Geothermal is a proven technology, has less impact on the environment and is cheap relative to the other options.

The report concludes:

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Levelizing Electricity Bills Throughout the State

Last week I was approached by some people whose vision is to levelize the cost of electricity so that residents statewide pay a rate similar to, or less than, what O‘ahu residents pay.

On O‘ahu, they pay around 26 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh) for electricity. Here on the Big Island, we pay about 36 cents/kwh.

These people see geothermal as the resource we have available that could take us largely off oil. And, unlike with oil, geothermal power costs are stable.

They explained that although the geothermal resource is on the Big Island, the largest number of customers are on O‘ahu. And that they would need to reach those O‘ahu customers in order to have enough people to pay for the cable and to lower the rates of Big Islanders.

With lower electric rates, they would hopefully attract a lot of folks to buy electric cars. This too would increase electricity sales, and help stabilize rates at a lower level.

They spoke about running a cable to Kaua‘i, as well, and powering Kaua‘i if the science permits. They know that’s probably a money loser. But they feel that it’s the right thing to do. How can we leave our brothers and sisters defenseless when oil price start to rise?

They asked me if I would join their group. For several years I’ve been working toward lower electricity rates for the rubbah slippah folks. And now, with Peak Oil right around the corner, it’s critical that we move quickly. I told them my intention is to join them after I spend some time evaluating things.

I like their general approach and there will be lots of details to fill in along the way. But it is certainly better for the rubbah slippah folks than the path we are heading down now.

This Pacific Business News blog post, by Sophie Cocke, says that the electric utilities recently reported lower sales due to cool weather.

HECO, ‘bad’ weather and decoupling

Pacific Business News – by Sophie Cocke

Date: Monday, November 1, 2010, 8:57pm HST

Hawaiian Electric Industries, the parent company of Hawaiian Electric Co. and American Savings Bank, released its third-quarter earnings this weekend showing a 12 percent decline in electricity sales compared to the same quarter last year.

The company’s year-to-date revenues, through September, show an even sharper decline of 17 percent, compared to last year.

Two months ago, the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission approved decoupling for the utility companies, severing the link between sales and profits — a matter that has been on the forefront of shareholders’ minds during the company’s last two investor calls.

Read more: HECO, ‘bad’ weather and decoupling | Pacific Business News

Yes, but I wonder if the lower sales could also be due to folks leaving the grid to protect themselves from rising oil prices. When that happens, everybody else ends up paying more, and then we will begin dividing ourselves into the haves and the have nots. For ourselves and for future generations, we do not want this to happen.

Decoupling might protect the shareholders, but it does not give HECO any reason to be concerned about customers’ costs. It just allows them to do things like encourage expensive biofuels instead of bringing more geothermal on line.

Take Aways From The Peak Oil Conference, and Why We Are Lucky

My take-away impressions of the 2010 Peak Oil conference:

  • For more than 20 years, we have been using 2 to 3 times more oil than we have been finding. Because oil is finite, sooner or later we will not be able to maintain the amount we burn every day.
  • The International Energy Association, the folks that count barrels for the rich nations, estimate that oil fields age at the rate of 5 to 6 percent per year—about 4 million barrels per day, annually. That is the amount we need to find just to keep up with aging oil fields.
  • The amount of oil the world is producing has been the same since 2004.  And even though the price went way up, the world did not increase oil production. How come? Maybe it was because we could not. 
  • Lloyds of London, in a white paper sent to its business clients, warns of $200 per barrel oil by 2013. That is not surprising; it's about the time the 90-day accessible reserves run out.
  •  In Hawai‘i, we are unbelievably lucky to have geothermal. It is way cheaper than oil, it is stable and it is proven technology. It can help to elevate our native people's standard of living, as well as the that of the rest of us.

The Renaissance of Agriculture in Hawaii

I was part of a panel discussion of the Hawaii Venture Capital Association, which presents a monthly professional meeting at the Plaza Club in Pioneer Plaza in Honolulu.

The topic was “The Renaissance of Agriculture in Hawaii.” Panel members were Darren Demaya of Kai Market at the Sheraton Hotel; Claire Sullivan of Whole Foods; Andres Albano of CB Richard Ellis; Kyle Datta of Ulupono Initiative, and myself.

Someone told me they thought the attendance at this event was exceptional. I thought, “Everyone likes to eat.”

Gubernatorial Candidate Neil Abercrombie sat with Kyle Datta and I before the event started. He told us that his style of operating is to ask the folks who know a subject to give their opinions on what should be done and how to do it. He said, I rely on you guys to get it done; you’re the experts.

At the end of this post is the speech I gave, as written. But, as always, I started winging it from the start.

I began by saying that I have the answer to the problem. After I let that sit for a few moments, I told them what it is:

“Food security is about farmers farming, and if farmers make money, farmers will farm.”

That’s all there is to it, I told them; it isn’t rocket science.

I told the group that my Ag and energy blog is called hahaha.hamakuasprings.com, and that it represents three generations of the Ha family. I told them that I just got an email from Gordon Vredenberg, my buddy from 7th grade who lives on the mainland now. He told me, “I ran across your blog, and boy, things have changed. There was a time that if someone repeated your last name twice in a row, there would be a scrap right there.” The audience laughed.

I repeated my phrase, “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm,” several times in my talk. I could tell it stuck.

Later, when someone asked what the future of agriculture might look like, I answered, “If the farmer…”

The audience cracked up. They knew the rest of the sentence: “…makes money, the farmer will farm.” It was a fun event.

But on a serious note, it was heartwarming to hear Darren Demaya and Claire Sullivan talk about their commitment to using locally grown produce. This helps “farmers make money.” Kyle Datta gave a high-level vision of how we are going to achieve food security.

Andres Albano presented a perspective that very few of us get to see. I didn’t know they were the ones responsible for marketing the entire C. Brewer land sale, which involved tens of thousands of acres. He described the value of the sugar infrastructure for food production, especially the water system. Of course, he is right.

After the panel discussion, people came over to talk. One person asked what I thought of large-scale, mechanized agriculture. I said that in the “new economy” it will be more important to have resiliency and redundancy, and so I prefer small- and medium-sized farming entities all over the state, instead of one giant industrial farm that might need to source foreign labor. It might cost a little more, but it will be a lot safer for all of us.

Lots of the conversation revolved around “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm.” I said that if the discussion strays and becomes a couple of steps removed from that basic thought, no sense waste the time. People really get that.

Here’s the talk I gave:

Renaissance of Agriculture

We farm 600 fee simple acres just outside of Hilo. We have 60 workers, and our primary products used to be bananas and hydroponic vegetables. Now they include sweet potatoes, sweet corn, taro, beans, etc. and will include more things. We have deep soil, three streams and three springs, and we are putting in a hydroelectric generator soon.

We are a family operation of three generations of Has. That is why our blog is called hahaha.hamakuasprings.com. We have been farming for more than 30 years.

Several years ago, we noticed our farm input costs rising, and realized it was due to oil.  We always try to position our company 5 to 10 years in the future, so in 2007 I went to the Peak Oil Conference in Houston to learn about oil. I learned that oil is finite, that the world is using 2 to 3 times more than we were finding and at some point we were going to find that we cannot produce more and then we will start down the backside of the oil supply curve. Sooner or later, we are going to face a new economy of higher oil prices.

Based on the idea that food security involves farmers farming and if the farmers make money the farmers will farm, we set out on a two-part Ag security plan for ourselves.

On a larger scale: We are promoting geothermal, the cheapest form of electricity base power. It would give folks discretionary income, so they could support local retailers and local farmers. That effort is ongoing.

And on our farm: We decided to transform our 600-acre fee simple farm from a one-entity production model to the “Family of Farms” model.

First thing we did back in 2007 was to pass legislation authorizing a special renewable energy farm loan program. It offers 3 percent, long term financing and is what we are using to help to finance our hydro project.

In June 2008, when oil price spiked and gas prices hit their peak, some of my workers asked to borrow money for gas to come to work. That was scary and clearly unsustainable.

We immediately decided to restructure our business to be relevant to the new economy. We knew that if farmers made money, farmers would farm and we wanted to add value for our retail customers. We began to implement our Family of Farms model. We decided to bring in area farmers to help keep the land in production.

To help farmers make money we:

  • Offer low-rent land, cheap water, deep soil, and plastic covered houses to grow crops
  • If farmers made money then we could make money by distributing
  • It would give all of us economic reasons to stay together.
  • Strengthen our brand by showing citizens that we are moving toward food security, giving them reason to support our brand.
  • Add value for our retail customers, who are interested in shortening their supply lines in the new economy.

Results we hope for:

  • Match our labor needs to the community.
  • Farmers from the nearby community. They have their own houses.
  • More productivity from our lands.
  • Profitability is reason for us to stick together.
  • More and varied food calories for the community.

Also, we are working with the USDA on a larger, zero waste program for the Hamakua Coast. We are working on renewable fuel projects that are appropriately scaled:

  • Biodigester for rendering plant down the coast. End products might be fertilizer, compost, etc.
  • Heterotrophic algae oil project that would get its carbon from our and others’ waste Ag products. Residual product to be animal/fish food.

To recap:

Considering the new economy is how we became directly involved in bringing the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) to Hawai‘i. It will help us transition and prepare our people on the Big Island for the new economy.

That is also why we are so involved in sourcing cheap geothermal for electrical base power. We are sitting on the largest battery in the world. The folks on the lowest rung of the economic ladder will get their lights turned off first if we choose expensive electricity. Too often they are Hawaiians. As oil prices rise, we become relatively more competitive to the rest of the world and our standard of living will rise relative to the rest of the world. Doing this will strengthen the aloha spirit.

The Family of Farms model brings us closer to our communities, while giving area farmers the opportunity to make money – because if the farmers make money, the farmers will farm. And for our workers we are actively planting ulu, bamboo, tilapia, etc. Since we have a difficult time raising our workers’ pay, we give them food from what we grow.

In the new economy, we will need stronger communities, we need to make more friends and stay closer to our families.

Not, no can. CAN!

The Train Is Leaving The Station & We Need To Act Now

We are at a real crossroads now – like hundreds of years ago, when Polynesians were sending people north in canoes – and I am serious when I ask: Are we going to do something, or are we just going to talk about it?

I am referring, of course, to our energy problem. It’s about to become critical.

  • Lloyds of London has warned its business clients to be prepared for $200/barrel oil by 2013.
  • In speaking with Forbes magazine, Charlie Maxwell predicted Peak Oil will happen in seven years. http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2010/09/13/maxwell-forecasts-peak-oil-in-seven-years
  • The German military is also worried about Peak Oil.
  • Many, many other credible groups agree that this is a very critical problem.

We will probably hit Peak Oil sooner rather than later. There is just too much evidence indicating that oil is depleting.

Sitting out here in the middle of the ocean, we must prepare for the worse case scenario. We need to move toward solutions that make us safe, rather than sorry. And we need to move now. We have no time to waste.

My objective is to help us all to survive and still have affordable electricity.

Geothermal is something we have right here that can be considered a game changer. Are we up to the challenge?

There’s no more time for merely throwing around words. We need to act, and now.

The train is leaving the station.

The Impending World Energy Mess

I bought Bob Hirsch’s book The Impending World Energy Mess at the Peak Oil conference. If you want to understand why we will have an oil crisis in two to five years, this is the book to read.

Energybulletin.net wrote about the book:

James Schlesinger, President Carter’s Energy Secretary, wrote the foreword to a book written by Dr Robert Hirsch, an former US official who predicts a fall of the oil production within 5 years.

Never before has a high-ranking political figure like Schlesinger given his support to such a prognosis. The book will be published in the US on October the 1st. Here is an exclusive interview with its author.

Dr. Robert Hirsch has a unique place in the ‘peak oil’ issue. Back in 2005, he was the main author of the first pessimistic report ever published by a public administration (presentation on Wikipedia).

Not just any public administration : the Department of Energy of President George Bush.

Robert Hirsch has been a manager of petroleum exploratory research at Exxon, a senior staff member at the RAND Corporation, and director of the US research program on nuclear fusion energy.

His 2005 conclusions did not get any attention from the mainstream or financial media.

Today, Robert Hirsch perseveres. According to him, it’s now obvious: we will soon face a decline of world black gold supplies.

They also published an interview with Robert Hirsch:

Bob Hirsch: In years past, there was considerable uncertainty in my mind about when the decline of world oil production might begin. Recently it became clear to me that it’s going to be sooner rather than later. I believe that the onset of the decline of world oil production is likely in the next two to five years. And when I say “oil,” I mean all liquid fuels.

Our thinking is that what happened in the two sudden oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 is very likely to be repeated when oil decline sets in. Those were two real world examples of oil shocks surprising people and causing panic. We believe that the same kind of thing is going to happen again, except that the problem is going to last much, much longer because, unlike before, there will be no unused oil supply valves to turn on this time. Read more

Platts News Service Reports on the Peak Oil Conference

When I attended the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO USA) Conference in Washington, D.C. last week, I happened to be sitting next to the reporter for Platts News Service, Leslie Moore Mira.

Here are two reports she wrote about the conference, which sum things up well:
Peak oil panel debates severity, timing of potential crisis
Washington (Platts)–7Oct2010/553 pm EDT/2153 GMT

A panel of geologists and energy analysts debated Thursday the severity and timing of an anticipated oil crisis, with one saying during a Washington briefing that crude oil production has now peaked.

“The global rate of production of oil is peaking now,” said Tad Patzek, professor and chairman of the department of petroleum engineering at the University of Texas-Austin. “The size of accumulation [of oil] is not equated to the rate of production,” he said.

Frank Rusco, an energy director at the US Government Accountability Office, estimated some 45 years of “proven reserves,” though current and future oil demand will stress supplies.

“Higher oil prices can retard economic growth and even cause a recession in the right circumstance,” Rusco said at the briefing, which was organized by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. He declined to say after the briefing what a gasoline price ceiling might be for US consumers.

“The remaining hydrocarbons will be more costly to get from underground,” from a “policy perspective,” Rusco said, citing the Middle East as a “fairly unstable” region.

Robert Hirsch, an energy adviser at MISI and former manager of Exxon’s synthetic fuels research laboratory, put the state of looming shortages in more dire terms, saying “in the next two to five years oil shortages will get deeper and deeper.”

Meanwhile “mitigation” of oil dependency by transitioning into other energy sources will take upward of a decade to come into play.

“Some time after a decade, mitigation will take impact and things will start to flatten out,” Hirsch said.

GHAWAR COULD MORPH INTO A CANTARELL: PROFESSOR
New reserves from Brazil and production from unconventional sources in the US will not be enough to compensate for depleting reserves, panelists said.

The Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, still a bright light in the
petroleum world, could see a sharp and imminent decline in production, Patzek said.

If Ghawar “peters out, to replace it [with production elsewhere] will be a very difficult task,” he added. He estimated Ghawar’s current production at between 4.5 million-5 million b/d, though added that actual production figures are unknown as they are a “top secret.”

Later on the sidelines, Patzek said Ghawar could become the region’s Cantarell, referring to Mexico’s offshore oil field that has seen production plummet by over half from a peak 2.1 million b/d in the mid-2000s.

Patzek said that the ongoing water-flood efforts into the Ghawar field to stimulate production will eventually taper off. “You’re injecting twice as much water into the well,” he said. “Your field is watering out,” Patzek said in an interview.

Patzek told the briefing that that Norway’s reserves have peaked, while he characterized the decline rate in the US Gulf of Mexico as “very high.” BP’s Thunder Horse well in the Gulf “has not reached its potential and it’s declining faster than people thought,” Patzek said.

A BP spokesman was not immediately available for comment on Patzek’s remarks about Thunder Horse.

– Leslie Moore Mira, leslie_moore@platts.com

Collapse then surge predicted for oil prices at peak oil meeting
Washington( Platts)–11Oct2010/415 am EDT/815 GMT

A looming collapse in credit markets and liquidity could lead to wildly gyrating prices for crude oil within the next five years, with prices falling to $20/barrel, then possibly rocketing to $500/b, a peak oil theorist and commentator told the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas conference.

“This is not a recovery that we’re in,” said Nicole Foss, a former fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, who predicted “chaos” in foreign currency and equity markets within years. A severe deflationary plunge will contribute to a liquidity crisis among the financial sector, Foss said on a peak oil panel late last week. The meeting in Washington wrapped up Saturday.

“Oil will bottom early in this depression,” Foss said. She and fellow
panelist, energy analyst Chris Martenson, predicted that foreign currency markets will become more volatile, with domino effects on global money supply.

“It’s not unthinkable that the US will have another financial crisis,”
Martenson said, adding that he gave the US a “50%” shot at having a fiscal crisis and a “50%” chance of experiencing a currency crisis. “We’re going to see severe dislocations in the foreign exchange markets.”

“Deflation is tomorrow’s problem,” Foss said, adding that a lack of
purchasing power will undermine price support for crude oil. Then “printing [money] is a few years off,” she said. “We could see $20/barrel and then $500/barrel within the space of five years,” Foss said.

Foss runs the Agri-Energy Producers’ Association of Ontario, where she has focused on farm-based biogas projects and grid connections for renewable energy. At Oxford, she researched electricity policy at the EU level, according to her website. She was previously editor of the Oil Drum Canada, where she wrote about peak oil and finance.

Speaking on the sidelines of the conference, Foss said that natural gas holds no promise as a safe hydrocarbon haven in a scenario of volatile crude oil prices. There is a “perception of a glut” of natural gas reserves and other resources from new shale plays and coalbed methane, and tight formation gas, Foss said.

“I would argue that this is an illusion,” Foss said. The environmental cost of extracting unconventional resources “is tremendous,” Foss said, adding that the energy resource “bang for buck” is unappealing. “We’ll end up with natural gas price spikes,” after years of low natural gas prices, she said.

As a side event to the meeting, a panel of geologists and energy analysts debated at a Congressional briefing the severity and timing of what they believe will be an oil crisis, with one saying crude oil production has now peaked.

“The global rate of production of oil is peaking now,” said Tad Patzek,professor and chairman of the department of petroleum engineering at theUniversity of Texas-Austin. “The size of accumulation (of oil) is not equatedto the rate of production.”

Frank Rusco, an energy director at the US Government AccountabilityOffice, estimated that there are some 45 years of “proven reserves,” thoughfuture oil demand will stress supplies. “Higher oil prices can retard economicgrowth and even cause a recession in the right circumstance,” Rusco told thebriefing. He declined to say after the briefing what a threshold gasoline
price might be for US consumers.

“The remaining hydrocarbons will be more costly to get from underground,” from a “policy perspective,” Rusco said, citing the Middle East.

Robert Hirsch, an energy adviser at MISI and former manager of
ExxonMobil’s synthetic fuels research laboratory, put the state of looming shortages in more dire terms, saying “in the next two to five years oil shortages will get deeper and deeper.”
Meanwhile, the “mitigation” of transitioning into other energy sources will take upward of a decade to come into play. “Some time after a decade, mitigation will take impact and things will start to flatten out” on the demand side, Hirsch said.

-Leslie Moore Mira, leslie_moore@platts.com

At the Peak Oil Conference 2010

I’m at the Peak Oil Conference in Washington, D.C.

This is my third ASPO conference. By now, I know most of the main players.

From left to right: My friend Gail Tverberg, editor at The Oil Drum; Jeff Rubin, former chief economist of CIBC world markets; me, and Debbie Cook, former Mayor of Huntington Beach, CA and board member of ASPO-USA.

Photos2

This is Chris Martenson on the left, the author of The Crash Course, and David Murphy, author of Energy Return on Investment, on the right. It was nice to talk story with David about EROI and geothermal.

I am really pleased that State of Hawai‘i’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism sent Tim Ming their staff economist. He really gets it.

There is a Big Island Solution to Rising Oil Prices

Lloyds of London warns its business clients to be prepared for $200/barrel oil by 2013.

Why? This video explains.

These folks are international oil experts. Watch the video again until you understand what they are saying.

The most important piece of information you need to understand is that the decline rate of aging oil fields is about 4 million barrels per day annually. This is due to aging oil fields. Every two years or so, we need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia just to stay even with the natural decline rate. In order to keep up with demand, we need to make up for that and then also produce extra.

If one looks at a graph of HEI’s stock price over the last several years, one sees that after a slight lag, HEI’s stock price dropped like a rock in July 2008 when the oil price spiked.

The same thing will happen, but worse, when oil prices hit $200. Local HEI stockholders will face a loss of value of their stock while their electricity prices steadily rise. How is that being good to your stockholders?

It was my nightmare – where they send all the white-haired people away to go look for new land. The white-haired folks are the ones that depend on HEI stock for their retirement years.

There is a solution:

  • First, say unequivocally that HECO will not put expensive biofuels into its Big Island generating units. We don’t have the luxury of time to play games.
  • Second, commit to geothermal and get down to business figuring out how we are going to replace HECO’s oil-fired units. Don’t worry about community outreach, because we are taking care of that. And certainly do not send folks from O‘ahu to do what is our kuleana.

The higher the fraction of the base load we place in geothermal, the more we protect ourselves from volatile oil prices. We need to get serious about this. Now! We do not have the luxury of time.

When oil hits $200 per barrel, it will devastate our tourist industry and hurt American Savings Bank if we have not inoculated them from volatile oil prices.

We all know the benefits of geothermal; we don’t have to keep preaching about them.

We on the Big Island know that if we start to implement geothermal and work with the local people in an honest and respectful way, then we can have a discussion about shipping power to O‘ahu. But not before we take care of our business here first. If we do things in the right way, I am confident that we can ship geothermal power to O‘ahu.

HECO should have a Plan B, instead of betting everything on wind and the cable to Lana‘i and Moloka‘i. If we do this right, geothermal can be the stabilizing force that saves our economy. Price volatility prevents business from investing. Businesses need stability, and geothermal gives us that.

If HECO insists on putting expensive electricity-making solutions into its Big Island grid, it will be taking the wrong fork in the road and we don’t want to follow them there. I wrote about all the reasons we should go to geothermal after my second Peak Oil conference.  That was seven long months ago and time is ticking by.

If we move down the road toward geothermal, we will be moving toward stability and cheap energy.

I asked the folks at the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization if it is fair to say that were we to get most of our base power from cheap geothermal, then we would be relatively more competitive to the rest of the world; and that our standard of living would rise, compared to the rest of the world. Carl Bonham, who is currently working on a formal analysis of $200/barrel oil, told me that it’s fair to say that.