Category Archives: Geothermal

You Can’t Be King If You Can’t Feed The People

Pua Kanahele, the kumu hula and highly respected educator, impresses me. Recently I heard her speak at a “Geothermal in Hawai‘i” symposium, put on by the First Nation’s Futures Program of Kamehameha Schools.

She puts a lot of emphasis on the Kumulipo, the Hawaiian creation chant, which is about new beginnings, and she talks about how important the environment is.

For example, she emphasizes the ‘ohi‘a tree and how it instigates the hydrologic cycle. The effect is: If we take care of our forests, we will not end up like Easter Island. I can definitely get behind her teachings. She inspired me to start planting ‘ohi‘a on my farm at Pepe‘ekeo.

I have a couple general observations about some others who want to be king, or philosophical leaders.

  • One cannot be king if one cannot feed the people. I can think of a few would-be “kings” I would vote against because they have no clue about taking care of the people.
  • “Leaders” who espouse a certain philosophy must not, as a result of that philosophy, cause people to go out and tread water while they stay safely on land, walking around and pointing in the air.

One very loud Hawaiian voice says: “If I cannot be Hawaiian in Hawai‘i, where can I be Hawaiian?”  It’s a good question and one that should concern all of us.

But if, for that person, the solution is to be against any form of geothermal energy, then the effect on the Hawaiian people is that their lights are turned off and they have less money to take care of their families. In other words, they end up out in the ocean and treading water.

I do not hear this loud voice providing a viable alternative. All I hear is “Me, me, me.”

Contrast that with Pua Kanahele’s point of view, which seems to be to take care of everyone by taking care of the environment. (It’s more complex than that; I’m simplifying.)

I have not heard a word from her about being against geothermal. She says there are many gods, and does not elevate Pele to being the main god. What she emphasizes are actions that take care of all of us.

She deserves the respect she gets.

The reason I am holding the Sierra Club’s feet to the fire is that I want them to realize that although, individually, they are not against Hawaiians, their non-action results in an anti-Hawaiian result.

They cannot play it both ways. And I am hoping they get it when we have the geothermal debate. They do not realize that as caring as they can be for “Hawaiians,” the results of some of their actions are actually anti-Hawaiian.

I feel, too, that some high-level Hawaiian educators have not thought the issues through deeply enough. The more they force people to tread water, the more irrelevant they become.

This is my simple point of view.

I Bet Geothermal Energy Will Last Longer Than Fossil Fuel Oil

It took 5.5 million years for the Big Island to replace Kaua‘i over the “hot spot” (see below). It is probably reasonable to assume that the hotspot presently beneath Kilauea, Mauna Loa and Lo‘ihi will last for a little bit.

I’ll bet geothermal energy will last longer than fossil fuel oil.

Certainly, this island isn’t going to move so fast that we are in danger of losing all the heat and energy tomorrow. 

The ancient Hawaiians were wise; they knew how all this worked.

From the United States Geological Service’s page Hotspots: This Dynamic Earth:

According to Wilson’s hotspot theory, the volcanoes of the Hawaiian chain should get progressively older and become more eroded the farther they travel beyond the hotspot. The oldest volcanic rocks on Kauai, the northwesternmost inhabited Hawaiian island, are about 5.5 million years old and are deeply eroded. By comparison, on the “Big Island” of Hawaii — southeasternmost in the chain and presumably still positioned over the hotspot — the oldest exposed rocks are less than 0.7 million years old and new volcanic rock is continually being formed.

The possibility that the Hawaiian Islands become younger to the southeast was suspected by the ancient Hawaiians, long before any scientific studies were done. During their voyages, sea-faring Hawaiians noticed the differences in erosion, soil formation, and vegetation and recognized that the islands to the northwest (Niihau and Kauai) were older than those to the southeast (Maui and Hawaii). This idea was handed down from generation to generation in the legends of Pele, the fiery Goddess of Volcanoes. Pele originally lived on Kauai. When her older sister Namakaokahai, the Goddess of the Sea, attacked her, Pele fled to the Island of Oahu. When she was forced by Namakaokahai to flee again, Pele moved southeast to Maui and finally to Hawaii, where she now lives in the Halemaumau Crater at the summit of Kilauea Volcano. The mythical flight of Pele from Kauai to Hawaii, which alludes to the eternal struggle between the growth of volcanic islands from eruptions and their later erosion by ocean waves, is consistent with geologic evidence obtained centuries later that clearly shows the islands becoming younger from northwest to southeast.

What is Plan B? Plan C?

Do you remember that prior to the climate change conference this past December, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) declared that greenhouse gases endanger human health? I heard it!

This means that, at anytime, the EPA can declare greenhouse gases – including C02 – are harmful to human health, and it could impose penalties.

The U.S. Congress is now getting ready to pass climate change legislation. Whatever they pass, our electric utilities will likely be penalized for emitting C02 – whether they burn fossil or biofuel.

This is why I ask: “What if the EPA designates C02 a dangerous gas? What is Plan B? Plan C?”

I’ve also been noticing that Europe and now the East Coast of the U.S. are slowly coming to the conclusion that biomass is not C02 neutral. In fact, they are finding that it could be as harmful as coal as far as C02 emissions are concerned.

It turns on if it is used for collecting and burning waste branches and rubbish, instead of trees. It also has to do with how long the rotation of new trees takes. Hu Honua is planning to burn eucalyptus trees, which might put it in the EPA’s gun sights. Organizations need to be out in front of these issues.

To be clear, I am in favor of PV, wind, algae and biofuels for transportation. What I am talking about here, though, is “base power” for electricity. “Base power” is the largest part of the electric utilities’ usage.

I also believe that each grid needs to find its own solution. I am mostly talking about the Big Island grid.

Which brings us back to this Lloyd’s of London white paper I just wrote about here. The world has changed and yesterday’s decisions may not be applicable to tomorrow’s reality.

It is no secret that I believe that geothermal moves us out of the line of fire.

I believe that the changes coming upon us, as the Lloyd’s of London analysis points out, are serious and will take place before any geothermal event.

We will soon find out who our true leaders are.

Robotics/Micro Mechanisms on the Big Island

The first Hawaii International Micro Robot Conference and Tournament will be held at ‘Imiloa Astronomy Center in Hilo from July 16 through 19, 2010.

Art Kimura, Education Specialist for the Hawai‘i Space Grant Consortium at UH Manoa, says the conference is primarily to begin a discussion on how Big Island can benefit through micro mechanisms.

“Whether for R&D,” he says, “for actual production, for prototyping, partnerships and relevant applications including medical, agriculture, security, etc. We are hoping this will be a catalyst for further interest in what would be a clean industry (since they are micro devices, the facilities are not large).”

Richard is very interested in this, and says that from a business perspective he can see micro manufacturing taking off on the Big Island where geothermal electricity would be cheap.

“Because it is small by volume,” he says, “freight cost would not a large factor. The higher the input cost of electricity, the more competitive we become.”

“This is a field where we could become world leaders,” he says.

Also, the University of Hawai‘i at Hilo is hosting the 9th Annual ROV Competition on June 24-26, 2010. This video describes the international student underwater robotics competition.

Hilo is the perfect location for the competition because this year’s theme is underwater volcanoes. The event will be held at the Olympic-sized outdoor swimming pool at UH Hilo’s Student Life Center.

About 60 teams from all over the world are participating, including five from Hawaii:
•    Kapiolani Community College, Honolulu
•    Kealakehe Intermediate School, Kailua-Kona
•    Moanalua High School, Honolulu
•    Highlands Intermediate School, Pearl City
•    Hilo High School, Hilo

ROVs are remotely operated vehicles, also known as underwater robots or robot submersibles. They’ve been in the news a lot lately because they’re a critical tool in the attempts to manage the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Skilled ROV engineers and operators are needed in many marine technology industries that have importance in Hawaii, not just the oil and gas industry.

And they also have applications in science and exploration. For example: an ROV was used to explore the Marianas Trench, the deepest part of the ocean, and an ROV was used to discover the location of the sunken Titanic.

The competition helps students develop the technology, piloting and teamwork skills needed to design, build and operate an ROV in a “real-world” setting and exposes them to marine technology careers. And if they decide working on ROVs isn’t right for them, they’ve still developed science, technology, engineering, math and teamwork skills that will be invaluable in any field.

The International Student ROV Competition is organized by the Marine Advanced Technology Education (MATE) center in Monterey, California.

Here is an email from Art Kimura about the 20th annual Future Flight Hawaii program:

From: Art Kimura

Sent: Sunday, June 20, 2010 2:46 PM

Subject: inspiring…the 20th annual Future Flight Hawaii program… misson complete

Aloha; Rene and I want to thank you all for being part of our 20 year journey….conceived and executed by a group of brave, perhaps naive on our part, 18 teachers in 1991, we are in awe of the teachers we have been privileged to work with.  We should remember our first “boss,” George Mead,
DBED Office of Space Industry, who trusted us to initiate this program, and to Patti Cook who introduced us to the opportunity.

Truth be told, the program was to have ended some 15 years ago when the Office of Space Industry was shut down; through being adopted by the Hawaii Space Grant Consortium (mahalo to all at Spaced Grant…Dr. Luke Flynn, Dr. Jeff Taylor, Dr. Peter Mouginis-Mark, Marcia Sistoso, Eric Pilger, Linda Martel, Lorna Ramiscal and others), we have managed to continue the program…significantly changed from the week long and weekend residential
programs, these family engagement programs continue to be among the most requested programs to be sure.  We thank the University of Hawaii at Hilo (Chancellor Rose Tseng, and the UHH Conference Center) which provided the facilities and services in the initial years before the program moved to the Kilauea Military Camp, then expanded to Maui (thanks to Betty Brask), Kauai (thanks to Cheryl Shintani) and Oahu.  NASA specialists including Tom Gates, Greg Vogt, Cheick Diarra, Ota Lutz, Wayne Lee, David Seidel and others, HIGP scientists (Luke, Jeff, Scott Rowland and others), Gemini Telescope specialists (Peter Michaud, Janice Harvey), the UH College of Engineering,
and many other community specialists and resources have contributed to the program.  We thank Creative Arts Hawaii for their long time support in designing the T shirts, bags and other materials that we have provided to the over 8,500 participants.

We have been honored to have worked with over 175 teachers as part of our mission control team, the summer institutes that we offered for credit and volunteers….they are truly educators with the right stuff.

How long do we continue is a frequently asked question….the initial goal of 10 years has long passed…then more recently, a personal goal was to have one of our grandchildren attend (oldest will not qualify for another
2 years)…but Morgan Nakamura who attended as a 4th grade student from Mililani in our first year, 1991, and who has been teaching business education at Pearl City High School (and is to be a state CTE resource teacher this fall), asked if we could continue the program for another 10
years…why? Morgan is to be married this October (Morgan brought her fiancee to the program and he passed the FF board of review) and she hopes her child will be able to attend.  So old folks like Rene/I will have to pull out our walking canes or better, pass the torch to a new generation, to continue it into the future. With NASA’s vision of exploration changing under President Obama (no return to the moon), we will have to come up with new contextual themes to be sure.

We are grateful to you all for the engaging and creative lessons; we are always in awe of seeing how the lessons unfold under your imagination…..the paper roller coasters put the parents and children to work until late at night and there were amazing results on Sunday to be sure (thanks to Wendell, Arlene and Clyde)….the children surely enjoyed the special solar cooked snacks made in their own solar ovens (thanks to Glenn, Sylvia and Jan) ….the extensive mineral collection from Roger’s personal treasure provide a college level experience for all (thanks to Roger and Matt)….the worm decomposers modules were so engaging that even the squeamish were holding worms (of course Wendi’s Connor told me that his mother would scream at the worms)…we hope the new annelid family members will be part of Earth’s renewal and recycling (thanks to Colleen for drilling all the holes in the bins, to Cyndi for bringing your own annelid collection, and to Donna and Andrea), the planes were flying in the hall ways after the lessons on flight by Dale and Lani, you could drink contaminated liquids after the filtering of the liquids by Carole, Morgan and Joann, the polymer module added to their knowledge of how useful these materials are (thanks to Arlene, Wendell, Clyde) and students learned about leaves through the leaf identification lessons and fresh and dried leaves (thanks to Sylvia, Jan and Glenn).

We were so excited to see the debut of the newest Princess Teriyaki (how many have we had over the years)….Claire Sakata, daughter of Dennis, who spent two years in Japan in the JET program, and will be student teaching at Kapalama Elementary this fall, introduced her study of Japanese magic in such a dramatic way…Claire, please reserve October 16 to be on stage with Roger and Dale at the Astronaut Lacy Veach Day science magic program. The Space Science Magic brought back many memories of demonstrations from years past and the videos brought by Randal, Dennis and Dennis were amazing as well.  Thanks to everyone for your hard work.

Randal Lau has generously spent extraordinary time to post the 2010 graduation videos and other videos from our Future Flight archive on:

http://picasaweb.google.com/boar59/FutureFlightHawaiiVideos?authkey=Gv1sRgCK
fyoaj4naDWYQ#

We hope it will provide everyone with great memories from this and from past years.

We are appreciative for the certificates of recognition from the State Senate presented by Senator Norman Sakamoto to Dr. Flynn, and from Governor Lingle, presented by Dr. Taylor, honors that reflect the long term commitment of all of the teachers and volunteers to develop creative and engaging lessons for the participants.

Future Flight Hawaii blasts off on our 21st annual program in June 2011 with an International Mission to Mars program.

We hope you will join us at:

July 17, 2010: Imiloa Astronomy Center, 6:30 p.m.-8:00 p.m.; public event for the 1st Hawaii Micro Robot Conference and Tournament: origami presentation by Hidenori Ishihara, robotics Professor, Kagawa University,
Shikoku, Japan, and bipedal robot demonstrations by Risa Sato, student at Shizuoka High School, winner of 2009 Bipedal robot competition at Nagoya University, and Hideaki Matsutani, technical education instructor, Meinan
Technical High School, Nagoya.

1st Children and Youth Day BrushBot tournament, October 3, 2010, State Capitol auditorium (if your child’s school wants to enter a team, please have the teacher contact us for workshop information and registration);
mahalo to Senator Chun-Oakland for the invitation.
*additional brushbot tournament to be hosted on the Big Island

9th annual Astronaut Lacy Veach Day of Discovery, October 16, 2010, Punahou School (http://www.spacegrant.hawaii.edu/Day-of-discovery/)
*keynote speaker: Kalepa Babayan, master navigator; content specialist, 

Imiloa Astronomy Center…and the expanded Future Flight Weird Science team (Dale, Roger…and Claire)

11th annual Astronaut Ellison Onizuka Science Day, January 22, 2011, University of Hawaii at Hilo
(http://www.spacegrant.hawaii.edu/OnizukaDay/)

VEX robotics tournaments: http://www.hawaiiroc.org/ October 2, 2010: Maui County Fair (Baldwin High School gym) November 11, 2010: Iolani School gym November 20, 2010: Imiloa Astronomy Center December 3-4, 2010: Hawaii Convention Center 

*3 other Oahu VEX tournaments to be scheduled

If you would like volunteer at these robotics or the Onizuka or Veach Day programs, please let us know.

Thank you again for being a part of our 20th annual program…we hope the rest of the summer provides time for relaxation and for family and friends to gather.  It truly was a joy to work with you …. Art and Rene

Art and Rene Kimura
Future Flight Hawaii
Hawaii Space Grant Consortium

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Geothermal Vs. Biomass

How Geothermal would work:

  • Drill
  • Bring up steam
  • Turn turbine
  • Make electricity
  • Put in electric wires

A 35-acre footprint makes 25 megawatts/hour.

No emissions, and no fossil fuels are used to produce electricity.

Geothermal costs approximately 11 cents per kilowatt hour.

How Biomass would work:

  • 50 to 60 big dump trucks all day long, seven days per week, hauling firewood
  • Four hundred dump trucks per week bringing firewood from 20 miles away
  • Burn the firewood
  • Boil the water
  • Spin a turbine
  • Make electricity

A 20-acre footprint generation plant, with a 10- to 20,000-acre footprint firewood forest, produces 25 megawatts/hour.

CO2 comes out of the stack. All the trucks, harvest machinery, chippers, the planting and fertilizer use fossil fuels.

Biomass costs approximately 18 cents per kilowatt hour.

Farmer-grown bio-diesel:

Farmers are not interested in growing biofuels. They went to HECO’s meetings three years ago, and HECO would not say how much they would pay farmers.

Likely they did not know themselves. All they knew was that the farmers would do it cheaply.

NOT!

Farmers are practical – they figured it out and so they never attended another meeting. Here is how they did it:

Farmers know that one barrel of oil weighs approximately 286 pounds. And if oil is $80 per barrel, each pound of oil is worth 28 cents/pound.

Obviously, farmers knew they would get less. How much less?

If it takes four pounds of stuff to squeeze out one pound of liquid, the farmer cannot make more than 7 cents/lb. for the stuff they grow. It does not matter what the stuff is.

Farmers figured this out after the first meeting. It did not take a task force or field trials to figure this out, but nobody bothered to ask the farmers what they thought until just recently.

The conclusion: Forget about small farmers growing biofuels. It is not going to happen for 7 cents/lb.

Out of curiosity, how much would oil have to be for farmers to farm biofuels? Let’s say the farmer would do it for 28 cents/lb. or four times the 7 cents/lb. rate. That means the price signal would have to be four times the $80/barrel price of oil, or $320/barrel. Farmers might grow a biofuel crop if the price of oil was $320 per barrel.

Maybe HECO is intending that the rate payer – you – would subsidize that cost. I am absolutely against that when we have the option of cheap geothermal.

Play The Position On The Chess Board In Front Of You – Not The One You Wish You Had

This is from the Energy Bulletin:

Deepwater Horizon and the Addiction to Growth
by Dan Bednarz

“The Gulf of Mexico oil blowout carries the emotional wallop and learning potential of a near-death experience. First, it certifies that the age of cheap and plentiful oil is over. Second, it reveals that our collective faith in technology to overcome any challenge posed by nature is a dangerous delusion. Third, it may be the event that sets our nation on the path to genuine economic and ecological sustainability.

“To understand why the age of cheap and plentiful oil is over we must ask why BP was drilling for oil in a foreboding environment. The answer has two parts: 1) the giant deposits of easy to reach oil on land have been exploited, so it’s drill in harsh environments or nothing; and 2) despite claims by proponents of various petroleum alternatives and renewables, we have no viable, ready to go scalable substitutes for oil.”

For a couple of years in the late 1970s, I played chess every Saturday night with Willard Keim. He was a UH-Hilo Political Science professor and the Big Island Chess Champion. We played with chess clocks and we wrote each game down. During the course of the evening, we normally had time for two games, which frequently concluded after 1 a.m.

I did not win many games. But I learned one important lesson from Will – to ”play the position in front of you; not the position you wish you had.” After a while, I knew that when I lost it was because he was the better player, not because I had lost my sense of reality.

And so today, when I evaluate our energy situation, I try to make sure I am evaluating the situation as it is, not how I wish it were. This is why I say that “Wishing and hoping is not an energy plan.”

We on the Big Island are so fortunate to have the gift of geothermal, which will allow future generations to not only cope but prosper.

For the sake of future generations, can we be smart enough, determined enough and tough enough to keep this once-in-a-civilization opportunity from slipping though our fingers?

And can we bring all our people together? We do not have the luxury of time. And we must not focus on this part of the island or that part of the island; or this culture or that.

We are one island and one people and we must work to take care of all of us.

First Geothermal Working Group Meeting

Wally Ishibashi and I are co-chairs of the newly formed Geothermal Working Group, which met for the first time on Wednesday. Here is some video of the meeting.

The group was formed by a resolution introduced by Senator Russell Kokubun and will be exploring the possibility of using geothermal as the Big Island’s primary base power source. Mayor Kenoi has put the full power of his office behind this effort.

Wally and I are both aware that the world has changed forever and that the days of cheap oil are gone forever.  We both are very concerned about the effects of rising electricity costs on the “rubbah slippah” folks. So we concentrate on how to make it cheaper.

The Geothermal Working Group consists of Carlito Caliboso, Chair of the Public Utility Commission; Patrick Kahawaiola’a, President of the Keaukaha Community Association—cultural representative; Ted Peck, the State Energy Administrator in DBED; Jay Ignacio, President of HELCO;  Nelson Ho, President of the Moku Loa group of the Sierra Club; Robert Lindsey, Hawaii Island OHA trustee; Jacqui Hoover, executive Director HLPC-West Side Representative; Barry Mizuno, HIEDB; Wally Ishibashi, Big Island Labor Alliance, co-chair; Richard Ha, Hamakua Springs, co-chair.

This is a group of people who can get things done. And because this is so important, we will get things done.

The world is changing and it’s no longer business as usual. It’s hard to say all this without sounding like an alarmist, and I don’t want to do that. But this is pretty serious and we don’t have the luxury to philosophize about it. There’s no time.

Here are articles from the Hilo and Kona papers today about Wednesday’s meeting:

http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/articles/2010/06/03/local_news/local02.txt
http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/articles/2010/06/03/local/local03.txt

And these are the introductory comments I made at Wednesday’s inaugural meeting of the Geothermal Working Group:

Aloha everyone for taking the time to help us analyze the possibility of using geothermal for the primary base power for the Big Island. Thanks to the Big Island Labor Alliance and its geothermal committee and Senator Kokubun who introduced resolution SCR99 in the legislature. And to Mayor Kenoi and the County of Hawaii for their strong support for the working group efforts.

We are here today at the first meeting of the working group and we are charged with providing an interim report 20 days before the start of the 2011 legislative session. We do not have much time to do our work.

The winds of change are blowing across the world. The end of cheap oil is upon us and it will change our lives forever. The less fortunate among us are especially vulnerable. Unlike most people in the world, however, we have an opportunity to adapt and cope effectively. If we are wise, we will find ways to use this gift of geothermal energy to help us cope.

I was the only person from Hawaii to attend the Peak Oil conference in Houston in 2007 and again this past October in Denver. Peak Oil is not about running out of oil. We won’t ever run out of oil. We are running out of cheap oil—the oil we can afford to burn.

The first thing I learned at the conferences was the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Organisms, societies and civilizations operate on the idea of excess energy. It takes excess energy for a species to survive. Take the cheetah — it needs to run down, catch and eat the antelope to get enough energy to feed the kids, miss a couple more, feed the kids and still have the energy to catch another. It takes excess energy for a species to survive and prosper. Without excess energy, the species goes extinct. So it is with societies and civilizations.

In the 1930s, the energy in one barrel of oil got us a hundred more barrels; in the 1970s, one barrel got us 30. Now, because it is more difficult to find, one barrel gets us 10.  This trend is not good. At some point, we will come to the point of negative EROI.

It is estimated that it takes a minimum EROI of 3 to 1 to maintain the petroleum infrastructure. Then there will be oil left in the ground, but it will just take more energy than we get out of it. So we just have to leave it.  It is noteworthy that the EROI of biofuels is less than 2 to 1.

While the EROI of oil is 10 to 1 and steadily declining until no sense dig anymore, the EROI of geothermal is approximately 10 to 1 — and it will stay steady for centuries. According to HELCO’s website, geothermal energy costs approximately 11 cents per KWH. It is, by far, the cheapest form of base power. Geothermal energy is proven technology; it is cheap and it is a gift for us to use wisely.

The other important thing I took away from the Peak Oil conference was the status of world oil supplies. Oil fields age naturally, and when accumulated we find that the world oil fields are declining annually at the rate of 4 million barrels per day. There are about 6 million barrels per day of excess capacity. This means that just due to old age—4 million barrels per day—we will go through the excess capacity in less than a year and a half. After that, we must live on what we find. And we have not found giant oil fields since 1970.

To put things in perspective, Saudi Arabia produces a little more than 10 million barrels per day. To make up for the 4 million shortfall due to aging oil fields, we need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia every two and a half years.

Can we do that? Most studies that I see don’t think so. Most likely, we will be able to make up half of the decline rate of the aging oil fields. So after we go through the reserves in a year and a half or less, we will then be short of what we are using today. That is why we know that we are coming to the end of the era of cheap oil.

But we on the Big Island have the gift of geothermal. It is cheap, it works and it can even be used for transportation. Soon, the Big Island will have some buses running on hydrogen.

And if we store it in the propane infrastructure, we can have a strategic reserve. Geothermal is the gift that we can give to future generations.
Although we are approaching the end of the era of cheap oil, things are very hopeful here on the Big Island. Although there are thousand reasons why no can, the question is will we be wise enough to find the one reason why, ‘CAN!’? That’s why we all are here.

Thanks for agreeing to do this important work.

Who Will Be Our True Leaders? We’ll See

Who will be our true leaders?

From International Energy Association data, we know that future oil supply will start to decline in a very short time. Oil fields age and decline naturally. It is estimated that all the world oil fields combined decline in production at the rate of 4 million barrels per day every year.

Today we have about 6 million barrels of oil per day of spare capacity, mostly in the Middle East.  In a year and a half,  due to the natural decline rate of 4 million barrels per day, we will use up all the 6 million barrel spare capacity.

When that happens we will start down the back side of the world oil supply curve  — never to return. This means that every two and a half years we will need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia (which produces a little more than 10 million barrels per day) just to keep up with aging and declining oil fields.

But it is estimated that we will only be able to bring on 2 million barrels per day in new production when we need 4 million barrels per day just to keep up with the aging oil fields. After we go through the spare capacity, in about a year and a half, we will then be short two million barrels per day every year after that. In short time we will see $200 oil. That will mean gas will be higher than $7 per gallon. It will cost more than $100 to fill a small car’s gas tank.

Folks who can afford to will leave the electric grid as fast as they can, leaving the rubbah slippah folks and small businesses to pay for the cost of the electric grid.  We cannot let that happen if we can avoid it.

Unlike most of the people in the world we in Hawai‘i are very fortunate; we do have a solution.

We can go to cheap geothermal for our base power. If we get cheap electricity as a result, then more people are apt to stay on the grid. Cheap electricity makes electric cars more attractive. More people on the grid spreads the cost of the grid, resulting in lower rates for everyone.

As we all know, it’s the folks on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder that will get their lights turned off first. It’s a good chance they will be our Hawaiian brothers and sisters.

We cannot let that happen and profess to value the Hawaiian culture.

And here is a practical benefit: When the price of oil rises over time, as we know it will, our stable electricity rates will make us relatively more competitive to the rest of the world. Our people will have a higher standard of living compared to others.

For the sake of our future generations here, let’s get off that oil train and switch to geothermal.

Many of our leaders know about the oil situation. But many of them are afraid to take a stand, fearing that it might be too controversial.

We will soon find out who our true leaders really are!

Richard Appointed as Co-Chair of Working Group to Analyze Geothermal on Big Island

The Big Island Labor Alliance’s Geothermal Committee initiated SCR99:

REQUESTING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WORKING GROUP TO ANALYZE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE TO MEET THE BASELOAD DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY ON THE BIG ISLAND.

Senator Kokubun wrote the bill. It was heard at both houses’ energy committees, as well as the Senate’s Water, Land, Agriculture, and Hawaiian Affairs committees. It passed unanimously through all the committees.

I gave testimony to the Senate committees, pointing out that geothermal is the cheapest form of “base power.” I told them I am concerned that the utilities are encouraging the use of biofuels to power electric generators. Biofuels are much more expensive than geothermal-powered electricity. And it is the folks on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder who will get their lights turned off first, I reminded them, and that is most likely to be Hawaiians.

The County of Hawai‘i will be the lead agency, ensuring that this project will be accomplished in a timely manner. Mayor Billy Kenoi indicated that Wally Ishibashi and myself would be co-chairs of this working group. Wally and I work together seamlessly. We agree that we are both in favor of transparency and an open process.

The legislature wants a report 20 days before the start of the next legislative session. We will be ready to go in a few short weeks.

It is clear to us that we need to maximize geothermal energy. High electric rates don’t do anyone any good.

Here’s how SCR99 starts:

WHEREAS, in 1881, King David Kalakaua visited Thomas Edison  in New York to discuss extracting power from Hawaii’s volcanoes  and using underwater cables to carry power between islands; and

WHEREAS, at the time, his strategy did not prove to be
feasible, and hydropower was used to generate electricity to  light Honolulu; and

WHEREAS, today, technology advances make geothermal energy  not only feasible, but a top source of renewable energy; and

WHEREAS, geothermal energy is a more reliable source of
energy than solar or wind energy, because when the wind does not  blow and the sun does not shine, the heat from the volcano  continues to produce a steady flow of power; and

WHEREAS, Hawaii’s ratio of renewable energy generation (ten  per cent) to fossil fuel generation (ninety per cent) ranks  third in the nation; and

WHEREAS, the United States Department of Energy has
indicated that Hawaii is one of the best positioned states for  renewable energy potential; and…
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Richard on ‘Geothermal & Peak Oil’ Today

Richard will be speaking at a Sierra Club meeting today.

From Big Island Chronicle:

Richard Ha will speak about “Geothermal and Peak Oil” at a Sierra Club meeting Wednesday, April 28, 2010, at the Ola’a Community Center in Kea’au (across from McDonalds). A potluck at 5:30 p.m. will precede the meeting slated for 6 p.m. Ha had the large banana farm in the Kea’au area before becoming the Hamakua tomato farm producer he is today….(read more)

If you’ve read this blog before, you know that geothermal and peak oil are topics Richard feels strongly about and has been concerned about for a long time.

“I happen to believe  the world has changed and that we need to make the right energy choices for future generations,” he said. “Geothermal is proven technology, it does not depend on subsidies to make it work, it’s cheap, it doesn’t emit greenhouse gases and it is a resource for the people of Hawai‘i.”