If we keep chasing after oil as the price keeps rising – if we keep at it long enough – we will end up like Easter Island, unable to sustain ourselves.
I have been asked to be a board member of the Hawaii Biofuel Foundation, a HECO nonprofit that is tasked with exploring biodiesel production for Hawai’i. We are trying to determine if biofuels will work here in Hawai’i.
From the Wall Street Journal:
BY ANN DAVIS AND RUSSELL GOLD
The biofuels revolution, which promised to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil, is fizzling out.
Two-thirds of U.S. biodiesel production capacity now sits unused, reports the National Biodiesel Board. Biodiesel, a crucial part of government efforts to develop alternative fuels for trucks and factories, has been hit hard by the recession and falling oil prices.
The global credit crisis, a glut of capacity, lower oil prices and delayed government rules changes on fuel mixes are threatening the viability of two of the three main biofuel sectors – biodiesel and next-generation fuels derived from feedstocks other than food.
Biofuel production is farming and it requires farmers. As we all know – “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm.”
As a board member, I will tell the rest of the board that when oil is $200 per barrel, that’s the same as 70 cents per pound liquid. It would likely take at least 4 pounds of stuff to squeeze out one pound of liquid. It does not matter if it’s mac nuts, kukui nuts, jatropha or palm nuts. If that’s the case, a farmer can expect to get no more than 18 cents per pound for his or her crop. No sense. Lose money. Better to grow cucumber or eggplant.
And since the input cost to grow, squeeze and transport the stuff is all oil-related, the price the farmer needs to get also rises as oil price rise. It’s kind of like chasing the mechanical rabbit at the dog race track. The dogs never catch the rabbit.
One way of evaluating an energy source is by analyzing the Energy Return On Investment (EROI). In the 1930s, the EROI ratio for a barrel of oil was 100 to 1, meaning it took one barrel of oil to get 100 barrels. In the 1970s, it dropped to 30 to 1. A few years ago it was only about 10 to 1.
Professor Charles A. S. Hall, of State University of New York, is the leading expert on EROI analysis. He estimates that the minimum EROI needed to maintain a sustainable society is 3 to 1.
Experts say that biodiesel production is less than 2 to 1. The excess energy that results is not enough to maintain a functioning society.
On the other hand, the EROI for geothermal energy must be higher than 10 to 1. And it will not decline in the near future.
We are incredibly lucky to have this resource here on the Big Island. In addition to its energy-producing potential, it can be a valuable resource for the betterment of the native Hawaiian community. Sited on Hawaiian Homes or OHA lands, the benefits of rents and royalties go to the Hawaiian people.
Thank you Richard. Your blog is right on point and well stated.
Appreciate your insight. Hope you continue to share your knowledge Margaret Wille
I very much appreciate your comments Margaret!!
Richard