Richard Ha writes:
From a 40,000-foot view, a declining oil price is good for the U.S. and Hawai‘i in the short run because it gives us time to adapt.
A lower oil price makes oil-exporting countries vulnerable if they cannot maintain their domestic budgets and take care of their people in the manner in which they have become accustomed.
Financial reserves of oil-producing countries vulnerable to depletion
A specialized economist said that the financial reserves and surpluses of oil-producing countries are vulnerable to depletion in the event of continuing decline of global oil prices and with the pace of public spending remaining around the current high levels.
Professor of economics at the College of Administrative Sciences, Kuwait University, Dr. Mohammed Al-Saqqa said in an interview with Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) on Sunday that the economies of oil-producing countries (including Kuwait) are facing a real challenge represented in the growth of public spending without “control” to high levels amid the decline witnessed in oil prices in global markets approaching the level of USD 80 per barrel (bd).
The world works on net energy plus technology to extend that net energy. When that net energy starts to decline, there are going to be winners and losers.
The GMO debate going on all around us is a big distraction from the real danger, which is declining net energy!
At $80 per barrel, it is approaching zero net for the cost to extract it. Shale oil and tar sands spend about $80 per barrel getting it out of the ground. In normal times, pumping would slow down to decrease the excess supply. For a short time, the US is going to pump almost all of its oil for the next 5 or so years. What is going on now is the US, now having that capability, is using the price of oil as a weapon. The US knows Russia and Iran need $100 per barrel oil or economic chaos ensues in those countries. It is a dangerous game to play.
Another view is that the Saudi’s contrary to what they did the last time will increase the oil supply to maintain $80 oil for several years. Under this scenario, the marginal oil producers in the US will drop out and the Saudi’s will then raise prices and make back what they lost. What happens after that? This subject is way more concerning than GMO’s.
Jimmy Kimmel went around a county fair and asked people “What is a GMO?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzEr23XJwFY
Unfortunately, it only shows how the social media effort to dumb down America is succeeding beyond these media manipulators dreams.
The effects of peak oil are going to be many and varied. Hopefully, it doesn’t escalate to coincide with WWIII and stays regional conflicts. Many of these are being driven by oil. Russia only has oil and natural gas because of Georgia and Chechnya. Many people aren’t noticing peak oil is about what once was large reserves pumped dry. This is happening for the North Sea and the Alaska oil field. For Europe, this has made them totally dependent on Russia, much like we here on this island are almost totally dependent on imported oil.
Yes, this GMO hysteria is very damaging for this island to work toward energy independence.