I asked Richard to comment on the fact that oil prices ($97/barrel today) are substantially lower these days, and tell us what this means. Was that just a temporary spike we saw until recently, and does it mean that Peak Oil isn’t really that big of a problem after all? (You understand that I’m playing devil’s advocate here.)
As I expected, he was dismissive of the question. “The long-term trend is that supplies will absolutely start to drop off,” he said. “That’s irreversible. They haven’t done that yet because there’s a recession going on, so there’s less demand right now.”
He said oil prices will probably be low for a bit yet. “I’m not even concerned about the next few months. The price of oil will probably be low for a while. It’s not going to spike and go up suddenly.
“What I’m concerned about is years.”
He referred to a video that he calls the clearest explanation of Peak Oil he’s ever seen. (He suggests watching the rest of Chapter 17 as well as Chapter 18, too.)
“What’s happening right now,” he said, “is giving us some time. The danger, though, is that people are possibly interpreting it as though we’re going into a recession and thinking we’ll come out of it eventually and oil prices will be fine.
“But that’s not the case. It’s not what’s happening today that’s important. What’s happening today does give us more time to prepare, though, if we don’t fritter it away.”
He stressed that as the world’s population gets larger and larger, the world’s resources are being used up. “We need to utilize the resources available to us here in Hawai‘i in a wise way, and maximize opportunities. We need to make opportunities.
“This is what drives me to advocate for the Thirty-Meter Telescope (TMT) and its boon for education,” he said, “and to disagree with the banning of GMO taro and coffee. This is what makes me ask, ‘Why can’t we produce more geothermal energy?’”
The world has changed, he said, and we cannot keep on fighting yesterday’s battle. “Today, it is no longer about us; now it’s about future generations.”
“Our life style is funded by the net energy return on investment. How much energy does it take to get the energy we use? The difference between the two funds our lifestyles. Since it is taking much more energy to find energy, our lifestyle will soon start to diminish.”
He described bringing the Thirty-Meter Telescope here as locating a business here that generates millions of dollars in employment and educational benefits.
“As far as GMO taro and coffee is concerned,” he said, “there might not have been The Great Potato Famine if there were GMO Irish potatoes at the time.”
“We need to do the things necessary to protect our culture and our environment and help each other to make it happen.
“When will we realize that we cannot accept ‘No can?” he asked.
“Not, ‘no can.’ ‘CAN!’”