Peter Goodchild, at countercurrents.org, paints a bleak scenario about the future in a world of depleted oil supplies:

The decline in the world’s oil supply offers no sudden dramatic event that would appeal to the writer of “apocalyptic” science fiction: no mushroom clouds, no flying saucers, no giant meteorites. The future will be just like today, only tougher. Oil depletion is basically just a matter of overpopulation – too many people and not enough resources. The most serious consequence will be a lack of food. The problem of oil therefore leads, in an apparently mundane fashion, to the problem of farming.

To what extent could food be produced in a world without fossil fuels? In the year 2000, humanity consumed about 30 billion barrels of oil, but the supply is starting to run out; without oil and natural gas, there will be no fuel, no asphalt, no plastics, no chemical fertilizer. Most people in modern industrial civilization live on food that was bought from a local supermarket, but such food will not always be available. Agriculture in the future will be largely a “family affair”: without motorized vehicles, food will have to be produced not far from where it was consumed. But what crops should be grown? How much land would be needed? Where could people be supported by such methods of agriculture?

Though Goodchild’s portrayal looks bleak, here in Hawai‘i we have a great opportunity to transition to different ways of doing things. These ideas come to my mind:

1. If oil is equal to energy, what alternate energy could we substitute? How about geothermal? The energy is just coming out of the ground. How about water in a river running down hill? That’s potential energy. It rains 140 inches per year at our farm. What if we caught water and dug an injection well and captured the energy at the bottom? Instead of the internal combustion engine, we use electrical motors.

2. Can the utilities help us produce food? I don’t think so. It’s about costs and they have the highest costs in the country. We have to look for other ways.

3. What about fertilizer? Synthetic fertilizer is made from air and natural gas. Air is made up of 78% nitrogen. It may be possible that the geothermal company, using air, sand and geothermal energy, could manufacture calcium nitrate. Could a wind farm make fertilizer? We need to ask these questions.

Because oil was so cheap for so long, we have even forgotten that the sun’s energy has value. Here in Hawai‘i we can grow crops all year long. And as oil prices rise, the value of the energy coming from the sun will also rise. This means Hawai‘i farmers will become more competitive.

When I returned from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference in Houston in mid-October, things seemed bleak. But as time goes by, I realize we have many resources and opportunities to transition successfully.

My Pop used to say there are a thousand reasons why, “No can.” I am only looking for one reason why, “CAN!!”