The United States’ Government Accountability Office (GAO) has an interesting report about peak oil concerns here.

This is a time of increasing concern over the security of our oil supplies—in particular, the fear that, after 150 years of growth, the industry is now facing what is known as “Peak Oil.” That’s the point at which the production of petroleum reaches its maximum before entering a terminal decline.

The big question right now is “When will demand permanently exceed supply?” It used to be that the year 2030 seemed a reasonable estimate. Now, more than a few people are saying it could be as soon as two years from now. Some are even saying we may have already passed the peak.

It is not a question of whether or not we have oil reserves. There is a lot of oil in the ground. It’s more a matter of whether we can replace expiring oil fields with new production in a timely manner. Many of the professionals feel that we cannot. Furthermore, oil reserves of the OPEC producers are suspect. There are indications that they don’t have the reserves they say they have. We don’t know because they won’t show us proof.

And so what will happen? Likely, prices will rise slowly and steadily as oil supplies decline. People will probably adjust their behavior and conserve. Whatever happens, it seems certain that supply will not be able to keep up with demand.

Fertilizer, packaging and other farm expenses have risen steadily over the last few years. I wonder if we have already reached “Peak Oil.” If that has occurred, there’s no better place to be than here in Hawai‘i. We are fortunate to have abundant natural resources that we can use to generate electricity. If we react in a smart way, we should be fine.

Maybe we should hedge our bets and start to position ourselves for “Peak Oil” sooner, rather than later.