Except for some spikes in the 70s and 80s, oil cost less than $20 per barrel for a hundred years. Until 2000.

In the year 2000, the price of oil averaged $25 per barrel. And then for 11 years, the price of oil increased an average of 13.5 percent every year. There were peaks and troughs along the way, but 13.5 percent was the average yearly increase during that period of time.

In 2011, it averaged $100 per barrel.

This means that the price of oil doubled every 5.5 years. (Here’s a shorthand way to calculate doubling time: Take the growth rate and divide that into 70. In this case, divide 70 by 13.5 percent and you get approximately 5.5 years.)

Demand is exceeding supply. Something has changed fundamentally, and we here in Hawai‘i need to pay close attention to it.

It’s why Mayor Kenoi is taking a delegation to Ormoc City, Philippines. Ormoc City has about the same population size as the Big Island, a similar ag/tourism-based economy, and a university about the same size as UH Hilo.

But they generate 700 MW of geothermal energy, compared to the Big Island’s 30 MW. The Mayor wants to see for himself, and understand what the risks and potential for reward are for the Big Island.