In November, Matt Simmons spoke at the Hawaii Energy Challenge 08 held at the Fairmont Orchid.
His talk was notable because it included excerpts from the World Energy Outlook 2008, an annual report, published by the International Energy Association (IEA), that had just been released a few weeks prior.
For the first time, the IEA said that our present usage of oil is not sustainable. It said that Peak Oil will occur around 2020 if everything goes right; i.e., if countries and companies spend money now to develop more resources. The question left unanswered is: “What happens if we don’t spend the money to increase supplies?”
Luckily, in Hawai‘i we have alternatives.
From a (U.K.) Guardian article entitled When Will The Oil Run Out?
In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA had predicted a rate of decline in output from the world’s existing oilfields of 3.7 percent a year. This, it said, presented a short-term challenge, with the possibility of a temporary supply crunch in 2015, but with sufficient investment any shortfall could be covered.
Its newer report though, published last month, carries a very different message: a projected rate of decline of 6.7 percent, which means a much greater gap to fill.
More importantly, in the 2008 report the IEA suggests for the first time that world petroleum supplies might hit the buffers. “Although global oil production in total is not expected to peak before 2030, production of conventional oil…is projected to level off towards the end of the projection period.”
These bland words reveal a major shift. Never before has one of the IEA’s energy outlooks forecast the peaking or plateauing of the world’s conventional oil production (which is what we mean when we talk about peak oil).
But that’s as specific as the report gets. Does it or doesn’t it mean we have time to prepare? What does “towards the end of the projection period” mean? The agency has never produced a more precise forecast – until now. For the first time, in the interview I conducted with its chief economist Fatih Birol recently, it has given us a date. And it should scare the pants off anyone who understands the implications.
And from the Peak Oil Review:
gasoline engine like the one in the Chevrolet Volt, this vehicle is already on sale in China for $22,000.
If this vehicle works as advertised, it will mark a paradigm shift in the automobile industry for it is coming on the market with better performance specifications, two years earlier, and at half the rumored cost of GM’s Volt. If the US automobile industry can survive for the next two years it may find difficulty competing with just the Volt. It is worth noting that Warren Buffet has invested $230 million in the BDY electric car project in hopes of introducing them in the US by 2011.
Ammonia is probably the most critical manmade substance to the existence of human society. The expansion of the world’s population is based on fertilizer driven agriculture…and modern nitrogen fertilizer is ammonia. Global ammonia production comes about 69 percent from natural gas and 29% from coal. US domestic ammonia production was 10.7 million tons in 2007 and imported ammonia totaled 7.9 million tons. Major suppliers: Trinidad (55%), Russia (21%), and Canada (12%). (12/24, #18)
Liquid ammonia can be a transportation fuel, too. Can it work for ag and energy?
Matt Simmons praises the IEA for doing the research that brought them to the new conclusion – that things are going to be very serious. But he says that Fatih Birol is soft-pedaling the report and trying really hard not to alarm anyone, while at the same time holding private talks with heads of states telling them that things can be very grim if we all don’t get to work addressing this serious issue.
Matt Simmons said that Hawai‘i needs to “plan for Peak Oil followed by steady declines.”
• Although the rate of future declines is debatable, declining supplies will inevitably occur
• Even “modest rates” could have awful impact
• We need a manpower/material plan to attain realistic (not collapsing) supply
• We need a Plan B for work to begin using less oil:
• End long-distance commuting
• Grow food locally
• Produce “things” locally
• Transport people and goods by water and rail
And I would like to add the following:
• Be relentless in integrating renewable energy into our electricity grid
• Integrate ag and energy planning
• Diversify food supply to where the resources are located
• Support education and especially the community colleges, where they make and fix things
• Be realistic about biodiesel; it is a longshot
• Encourage electric transportation. It is more doable
• Encourage Young Brothers to lower agriculture rates from outside islands
If we pay attention and move forward with determination, we can set an example for the rest of the nation. Not, no can. CAN!