Friday was the Hawai‘i Island Energy Forum, sponsored by the Kohala Center in partnership with the Hawai‘i Island Economic Development Board and the Hawai‘i Island Chamber of Commerce.

It is my opinion that the Hawai‘i Island Energy Forum is a warning
that serious things are taking place and that we need to pay
attention.

I feel that the average Big Island citizen, because of what is
happening to their living expenses, is acutely in tune to what is
going on. But I think that many public officials still do not get it.
And they are blissfully ignorant at their own peril.

Tell us what you think.

I gave the welcome talk at the Energy Forum, and thought I’d share it with you here:

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Aloha everyone, and welcome to the Hawai‘i Island Energy Forum, sponsored by the Kohala Center in partnership with the Hawai‘i Island Economic Development Board and the Hawai‘i Island Chamber of Commerce.

I am Richard Ha. We farm 600 fee simple acres of bananas and hydroponic vegetables. You may be asking: “Why are you here opening up this conference?”  It’s because farming inputs are largely dependent on petroleum-based products. Farming is kind of like the canary in the coal mine.

Farmers get advance warning when oil prices rise because most of our inputs are oil related.

Five years ago we diversified into hydroponics. Oil was then $35 per barrel. And everyone knew that China was going to use up a lot of that oil. So, we set out to make our operation as energy efficient as possible.

Two years ago, my wife June told me to take a look at the supply costs. They were rising steadily. That’s when I realized how closely our farming costs were tied to oil costs.

This past October, when attending the Produce Marketing Association tradeshow, which we go to every year, I noticed that the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference was being held in the same hotel the next day. I had heard of that non-partisan organization that is dedicated to the study of world oil supplies and sharing that knowledge with as many as possible.

At the ASPO conference, which was on Oct 17-21st, I learned that world oil supplies, because of geological, economical and geopolitical reasons, are not likely to keep up with the demand for that oil. The logical conclusion is that oil prices are going to increase at an accelerating rate. And due to rising input cost, there was going to be a bad effect on our farm.

One thing that caught my attention during the discussion of the airline industry was that the airline association predicted accelerating growth far into the future.  But we all knew that with declining supplies of oil would come increasing cost of gasoline, causing their customers to travel less and their own fuel costs to rise. Instead of accelerating growth it was more reasonable to expect negative growth. Seven months later airlines are going out of business. It is not surprising to those of us who attended the ASPO conference.

Coming back from that conference we renewed our self-sufficiency plan. We have a hydro electric plant in the works. It will supply all our electricity needs. And we are working on a small, farm-scale biodiesel maker. We hope to be largely energy self-sufficient within two years.

The world is changing in ways we have not seen and can only imagine. Oil jumped back to $134 today. The future price of oil had always been cheaper than the present price. But a few weeks ago, future oil price was no longer cheaper than the present. That is unnerving. We must challenge all of our fundamental assumptions. Prepare for the worse and hope for the best. The status quo is not safe any more. Actually the status quo is a very risky bet.

One hundred fifty years ago, 700 whaling ships were calling at Hawai‘i ports. If we had a forum then, perhaps some would be calling for increased production of harpoons. But the 800-pound gorilla in that room would have been that oil had just been discovered in Pennsylvania and the world was about to change.

Fast forward to today. The world is changing again. This time the 800-pound gorilla in this room is the fact that we have come to rely on oil for our lifestyle. But the supply of that oil cannot keep up with demand.

The world is changing in ways we don’t even want to imagine. But with great adversity comes great opportunity. This is a scary time. But it is also an exciting time. Betting on our people and their ability to innovate is a safe bet. Betting on making more harpoons is a very risky bet.

Not, no can. CAN!! We can do this. And that is what this forum is all about.

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This online Energy Forum newsletter has some related articles, as well as a link to the Hawai‘i Tribune-Herald article about the conference. (click on the link at the third article). I thought that the Tribune-Herald did a good job of reporting the essence of the conference.